Browsing by Author "Vlasov, Sergey"

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  • Vlasov, Sergey (2013)
    BOFIT Online 9/2013
    This study examines Russia's short- and long run fiscal sustainability. The study reveals the possible risks, if fiscal sustainability deteriorates on the general government budget level. By employing a special fiscal stress index, Russia's public finances are evaluated as sustainable in the short run. In the long run, the study analyzes advantages and limitations of the new fiscal rules, compares the new rules with the previous fiscal rules suspended during the financial crisis and discusses the possibilities for further development of the fiscal rules in Russia. The official long run socio-economic development forecast is employed for the estimates. The analysis suggests that comparing to 2012 government revenue will decrease by 7.5 p.p. of GDP by 2050, explained by the drop in oil-and-gas revenue by 8.7 p.p. of GDP. Government expenditure will decrease by 6.0 p.p. of GDP. The value of government net worth will become negative by 2050 but on the infinite projection horizon should stabilize on the safe level close to -15% of GDP. Keywords: fiscal sustainability, fiscal stress index, fiscal rules, general government budget, budget forecast
  • Vlasov, Sergey (2011)
    BOFIT Online 5/2011
    This study examines the Russian public finance system. It provides a description of the main fiscal reforms introduced by the Government from the moment of dissolution of the USSR, which enabled a reduction in the economy's dependency on nonrenewable resources. In scrutinizing the fiscal stabilization, we conduct a fiscal impulse factor analysis and estimate the degree of the fiscal-policy cyclicality in the period 2000-2013. The estimates show fiscal policy was procyclical in 2006-2008 and stabilizing during the rest of the period. The study also discusses fiscal sustainability issues for the period up to 2050 under two socio-economic scenarios. The size of the necessary fiscal consolidation under the current fiscal strategy is calculated and an alternative strategy is investigated. Keywords: fiscal framework, fiscal policy, fiscal sustainability, Russia
  • Vlasov, Sergey; Mamedli, Mariam (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 10/2018
    Russia’s level of pension provision lags most OECD countries, as well as faces challenges from rising pension fund deficits and an aging population. On the current course, in the long run Russia can expect decreased budget revenues that would require to adjust government spending. While many countries moved after the 2008 global financial crisis to overhaul their pension systems, Russia postponed action until recently. This paper presents estimates of retirement pension expenditures through 2035 under various assumptions about economic growth, demographic composition, and possible reforms to the pension system. Two recent measures by the government (abolition of indexing adjustments for working retirees and an increase in the retirement age for public servants) will slightly mitigate the long-term negative trends. For any of our assumptions, Russia’s decision to begin raising the retirement age by six months a year starting in 2019 will put the retirement pension expenditures relative to GDP on the downward trajectory. This reform allows an accelerating increase in pensions to improve retiree welfare and makes up for some of expected decline in overall budget revenues, making it easier to stabilize the level of public spending relative to GDP. Acceleration of economic growth backed by structural reforms limits further the growth in pension expenditures.