Browsing by Subject "bkt"

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  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Weill, Laurent (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2014
    Financial inclusion contributes to economic growth and poverty reduction. We examine financial inclusion levels in twelve Asian countries. To do so, we utilize data from the World Bank Global Findex database for 2011. We find large cross-country differences for the three main indicators of financial inclusion (ownership of a bank account, savings on a bank account, use of bank credit) and observe that ownership of a bank account is more common in high-income countries. However, the pattern of financial inclusion in terms of saving on a bank account or using formal credit differs across countries and is not related to per capita income. There are nonetheless major similarities in the motives for financial exclusion and in the alternative sources of borrowing in Asian countries. Voluntary financial exclusion is more prominent than involuntary exclusion, the main reason being lack of money. We also find that borrowing from family or friends is the most common way of obtaining credit and that relying on alternative private lenders is quite limited.
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2016
    One of the key objectives of the Government Programme is to raise the employment rate to 72% by the end of the parliamentary term. This means increasing the current number of people in employment by just over 100,000 by the end of 2019. If near-term economic growth is to remain around 1%, i.e. as foreseen in the baseline forecast, achievement of the objective will be unlikely. On the basis of the alternative scenario, attainment of the employment objective in the Government Programme requires markedly faster economic growth than at present. GDP growth in 2017–2019 should average 2.5% annually, i.e. about 1.3 percentage points faster than the baseline suggests, in order for the objective to be attained.
  • Parkkinen, Pekka (1987)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 61 ; 3 ; March
  • Paloviita, Maritta; Virén, Matti (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014
    This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters are also examined. Our analysis indicates that forecast errors are positively related to the subjective uncertainties based on probability distributions, but not to disagreement (standard deviation of point forecasts). We also show that forecast errors, which are rather persistent, are related to forecast revisions. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. Key words: Forecasting, Survey data, Expectations JEL Classification: C53, E37, E31
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2016
    Despite increased economic and market uncertainty, China’s GDP statistics still point to almost 7% growth, which is in line with official growth targets. According to the statistics, the deceleration of growth has been very smooth. This has once again raised suspicions over the reliability of Chinese GDP data. However, although there is much room for improvement in the coverage and transparency of the Chinese statistics, recent studies do not generally find evidence of significant or systematic falsification of GDP figures.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Trombley, Christopher (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2015
    Within currency unions, the conventional wisdom is that there should be a high degree of macroeconomic synchronicity between the constituent parts of the union. But this conjecture has never been formally tested by comparing sample of monetary unions with a control sample of countries that do not belong to a monetary union. In this paper we take euro area data, US State macro data, Canadian provincial data and Australian state data — namely real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the GDP deflator growth and unemployment rate data — and use techniques relating to recurrence plots to measure the degree of synchronicity in dynamics over time using a dissimilarity measure. The results show that for the most part monetary unions are more synchronous than non-monetary unions, but that this is not always the case and particularly in the case of real GDP growth. Furthermore, Australia is by far the most synchronous monetary union in our sample.
  • Freystätter, Hanna (2012)
    Euro & talous. Rahapolitiikka ja kansainvälinen talous 4
    Espanjan asuntojen hintakuplan puhkeamisen aiheuttama varallisuussokki on vaikutuksiltaan voimakas ja pitkäkestoinen. Kuplan puhkeamisen seurauksena ns. rahoitustekijät, kuten taseiden heikkeneminen ja rahoituskustannusten kasvu, vähentävät yritysten ja kotitalouksien mahdollisuuksia investoida ja kuluttaa. Tässä artikkelissa havainnollistetaan mallilaskelman avulla rahoitustekijöiden laskusuhdannetta voimistavaa vaikutusta Espanjassa. Maan talouden tervehdytysohjelma tulee perustaa talouskehityksen realistiseen arvioon, jossa rahoitustekijöiden merkittävä ja pitkäaikainen kasvua hidastava vaikutus tulee otetuksi huomioon. Talouspolitiikalla tulee pyrkiä estämään Espanjaa uhkaava tasetaantuma ja kriisin pysyvät vaikutukset talouden tuotantopotentiaaliin.
  • Suomen Pankki (2016)
    Euro & talous 1/2016
    Autoteollisuuden vaikutus bruttokansantuotteeseen ja työllisyyteen on EU:ssa suurin Saksassa ja joissain itäisen Keski-Euroopan maissa. Näissä maissa autoteollisuuteen kohdistuvalla sokilla voi olla tuntuvia vaikutuksia kansantalouden kannalta. Autoteollisuuden osuus EU:n tavaranviennistä on noin 10 %.
  • Freystätter, Hanna (2012)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Monetary policy and the global economy 4
    The wealth shock caused when the housing price bubble burst in Spain will have strong, long-lasting effects. As a consequence of the bursting of the bubble, financial factors (such as weaker balance sheets and higher costs of funding) weigh on the investment and consumption potential of companies and households. In this article, we use a model simulation to illustrate the procyclical effect of financial factors on the economic downswing in Spain. The economic programme of the country must be based on a realistic assessment of economic development that captures the significant and long-term negative growth contribution of financial factors. Economic policy measures should be adopted to avert the threat of balance sheet recession facing Spain and avoid any permanent effects of the crisis on the output potential of the economy.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron; Nuutilainen, Riikka; Pääkkönen, Jenni (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2011
    Published in Pacific Economic Review, Volume 18, Issue 1, February 2013, pp. 92-107
    We construct a small-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model that features price rigidities, habit formation in consumption and costs in capital adjustment, and calibrate the model with data for the Chinese economy. Our interest centers on the impact of technology and monetary policy shocks for different structures of the Chinese economy. In particular, we evaluate how a rebalancing of the economy from investment-led to consumption-led growth would affect the economic dynamics after a shock occurs. Our findings suggest that a rebalancing would reduce the volatility of the real economy in the event of a technology shock, which provides support for policies aiming to increase the consumption share in China. Keywords: DSGE, rebalancing, monetary policy shocks, technology shocks, China. JEL Classification: E52, E60.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron; Pääkkönen, Jenni (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2011
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 39, Iss. 3, Sept. 2011, pp. 406-411
    We use factor analysis to summarize information from various macroeconomic indicators, effectively producing coincident indicators for the Chinese economy. We compare the dynamics of the estimated factors with GDP, and compare our factors with other published indicators for the Chinese economy. The indicator data match the GDP dynamics well and discrepancies are very short. The periods of discrepancies seem to correspond to shocks affecting the growth process as neither autoregressive models for GDP itself nor various coincident indicators are able to forecast them satisfactorily. Avainsanat: factor models, principal component, GDP, China, C38, O4, P2, Aaron Mehrotra, Jenni Pääkkönen
  • Potapova, Valentina; Styrin, Konstantin (2010)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Expert view 7/2010
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Lee, Jim (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2005
    This article analyses the frequency components of European business cycles using real GDP by employing multiresolution decomposition (MRD) with the use of maximal overlap discrete wavelet transforms (MODWT).Static wavelet variance and correlation analysis is performed, and phasing is studied using co-correlation with the euro area by scale.Lastly dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models are used to obtain dynamic correlation estimates by scale against the EU to evaluate synchronicity of cycles through time. The general findings are that euro area members fall into one of three categories: i) high and dynamic correlations at all frequency cycles (eg France, Belgium, Germany), ii) low static and dynamic correlations, with little sign of convergence occurring (eg Greece), and iii) low static correlation but convergent dynamic correlations (eg Finland and Ireland). Key words: business cycles, growth cycles, European Union, multiresolution analysis, wavelets, co-correlation, dynamic correlation JEL Classification numbers: C65, E32, O52
  • Kajanoja, Lauri (2004)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 78 ; 1
  • Nyberg, Peter; Vaihekoski, Mika (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2014
    This paper continues the data collection procedure and analysis set forth in Nyberg and Vaihekoski (2009). A number of new time series that are commonly used in finance literature are collected, created, and analyzed for the first time. These series include, among others, monthly dividend yields and market capitalization values. The series are also compared with GDP to evaluate the overall role of the stock market in the Finnish economy. The value-weighted average dividend yield from 1912 to 1988 is 4.98%. The average stock market capitalization to GDP ratio is found to be 15.14%. JEL-classification: G10, G11, N24 Keywords: Stock market, financial history, dividend yield, capitalization values, trading turnover, Finland, Helsinki Stock Exchange, Nasdaq OMX
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2016
    The Bank of Finland forecasts a global growth rate of 2.8% in 2016, rising only slightly to 3.2% in 2017–2018. The growth pick-up reflects a recovery of the emerging economies suffering from the recession. World trade growth in the forecast period will be close to world GDP growth. The forecasts for the United States and the EU22 are more moderate than previously, but growth should still exceed the estimated potential growth rate. The growth forecast for China in 2016–2017 remains at 6%, from which it is expected to slow to 5% in 2018.
  • Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha; Kortela, Tomi; Sariola, Mikko (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
    The expanded asset purchase programme (EAPP) has had a significant positive impact on macroeconomic developments in Finland. The ECB’s decisions of December 2015 and March 2016 are forecast to boost Finland’s GDP by approximately 0.5%. The EAPP has also had a significant impact on price developments: without the purchase programme, inflation in 2016 would have been around 0.3 of a percentage point slower. The programme has also substantially increased both corporate and household credit demand.
  • Krupkina, Anna; Deryugina, Elena B.; Ponomarenko, Alexey (2014)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2014
    Published in Comparative Economic Studies Vol. 57, Issue 1, March 2015, pp. 168–182
    In the spirit of Borio et al. (2014) we present a model that incorporates information contained in diverse variables when estimating sustainable output growth. For this purpose, we specify a state-space model representing a multivariate HP-filter that links cyclical fluctuation of GDP with several indicators of macroeconomic imbalance. We obtain the parameterization of the model by estimating it over a cross-section of emerging market economies. We show that trend output growth rates estimated using this model are more stable than those obtained with a univariate version of the filter and thus are more consistent with the notion of sustainable output. Keywords: output gap, financial cycle, macroeconomic imbalances, emerging markets JEL classification: E32, E44, C33.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Hudgins, David (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2015
    This paper first applies the MODWT (Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform) to Euro Area quarterly GDP data from 1995 – 2014 to obtain the underlying cyclical structure of the GDP components. We then design optimal fiscal and monetary policy within a large state-space LQ-tracking wavelet decomposition model. Our study builds a MATLAB program that simulates optimal policy thrusts at each frequency range where: (1) both fiscal and monetary policy are emphasized, (2) only fiscal policy is relatively active, and (3) when only monetary policy is relatively active. The results show that the monetary authorities should utilize a strategy that influences the short-term market interest rate to undulate based on the cyclical wavelet decomposition in order to compute the optimal timing and levels for the aggregate interest rate adjustments. We also find that modest emphasis on active interest rate movements can alleviate much of the volatility in optimal government spending, while rendering similarly favorable levels of aggregate consumption and investment. This research is the first to construct joint fiscal and monetary policies in an applied optimal control model based on the short and long cyclical lag structures obtained from wavelet analysis.
  • Euroopan keskuspankki (2014)
    Euroopan keskuspankki. Kuukausikatsaus 6 ; kesäkuu