Browsing by Subject "business cycle"

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  • Martins, Manuel M. F.; Verona, Fabio (2021)
    Finance Research Letters March
    The typical increase of the corporate bond-to-bank ratio during downturns is known to mitigate business cycle recessions. In the three longest and deepest post-war U.S. recessions this ratio didn't increase from their outsets. In this paper we focus on the timing of the corporate bank-to-bond substitution in the Great Recession, simulating counterfactual paths for output growth under plausible notional behaviors of the bond-to-bank ratio. We find that the Great Recession would have been milder and the recovery much stronger if the bank-to-bond substitution had started since the outset of the recession and evolved thereafter as in most U.S. recessions.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Drehmann, Mathias (2020)
    Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 2
    Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2016 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201604051073
    In addition to leverage, the debt service burden of households and firms is an important link between financial and real developments at the aggregate level. Using US data from 1985 to 2017, we find that the debt service burden has sizeable negative effects on expenditure. Its interplay with leverage also explains several data puzzles, including the lack of above trend output growth during credit booms and the severity of ensuing recessions, without appealing to large shocks or nonlinearities. Estimating the model with data up to 2005, it predicts credit and expenditure paths that closely match actual developments before and during the Great Recession.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Drehmann, Mathias (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2016
    Also available in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 82 ; 2 https://doi.org/10.1111/obes.12330
    In addition to leverage, the debt service burden of households and firms is an important link between financial and real developments at the aggregate level. Using US data from 1985 to 2013, we find that the debt service burden has sizeable negative effects on expenditure. Its interplay with leverage also explains several data puzzles, such as the lack of above-trend output growth during credit booms and the depth and length of ensuing recessions, without appealing to large shocks or non-linearities. Using data up to 2005, our model predicts paths for credit and expenditure that closely match actual developments before and during the Great Recession.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Borio, Claudio; Disyatat, Piti; Drehmann, Mathias (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2016
    Published in International Journal of Central Banking, 13, 3, September 2017: 55-89 http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb17q3a2.htm
    Do the prevailing unusually and persistently low real interest rates reflect a decline in the natural rate of interest as commonly thought? We argue that this is only part of the story. The critical role of financial factors in influencing medium-term economic fluctuations must also be taken into account. Doing so for the United States yields estimates of the natural rate that are higher and, at least since 2000, decline by less. As a result, policy rates have been persistently and systematically below this measure. Moreover, we find that monetary policy, through the financial cycle, has a long-lasting impact on output and, by implication, on real interest rates. Therefore, a narrative that attributes the decline in real rates primarily to an exogenous fall in the natural rate is incomplete. The influence of monetary and financial factors should not be ignored. Exploiting these results, an illustrative counterfactual experiment suggests that a monetary policy rule that takes financial developments systematically into account during both good and bad times could help dampen the financial cycle, leading to higher output even in the long run.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Borio, Claudio; Disyatat, Piti; Drehmann, Mathias (2017)
    International Journal of Central Banking 4 ; September
    Published in Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2016.
    Do the prevailing unusually and persistently low real interest rates reflect a decline in the natural rate of interest as commonly thought? We argue that this is only part of the story. The critical role of financial factors in influencing mediumterm economic fluctuations must also be taken into account. Doing so for the United States yields estimates of the natural rate that are higher and, at least since 2000, decline by less. An illustrative counterfactual experiment suggests that a monetary policy rule that takes financial developments systematically into account during both good and bad times could help dampen the financial cycle, leading to significant output gains and little change in inflation.
  • Bank of Finland (2010)
    4/2010
    Editorial: Bank capital and business cycle fluctuations+Great depressions: How important are financial frictions?+Economic crisis and exchange rate fluctuations
  • Verona, Fabio (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2016
    Published in Economics Letters, Volume 144, July 2016: 75–79 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2016.04.024
    Despite an increase in research – motivated by the global financial crisis of 2007-08 – empirical studies on the financial cycle are rare compared to those on the business cycle. This paper adds some new evidence to this scarce literature by using a different empirical methodology – wavelet analysis – to extract financial cycles from the data. Our results confirm that the U.S. financial cycle is (much) longer than the business cycle, but we do not find strong evidence supporting the view that the financial cycle has lengthened during the Great Moderation period.