Browsing by Subject "corona crisis"

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  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    The global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic intensified in March 2020. The health crisis and the lockdown measures necessary to contain the epidemic led to an exceptionally sudden and sharp decline in output worldwide in the first half of the year. In 2020 as a whole, the global economy is expected to contract by about 4–6%, and the euro area economy by about 8–10%. The euro area economy would seem to be diving a little deeper this year than the United States, but the pace of recovery is very uncertain for both. China saw the most difficult phase of the epidemic and thus the sharpest economic contraction in the first quarter of 2020. China’s recovery has been facilitated by the production and export of remote work equipment and protective equipment for the coronavirus disease. The pandemic shock has had a dampening effect on inflation. Unemployment is on the rise, but the euro area has avoided sudden mass unemployment through furloughs and government aid.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The Finnish economy is experiencing a sharp contraction on account of the coronavirus pandemic. Gross domestic product will decline by around 7% in 2020. In the next 2 years, the economy will grow around 3% per annum. The forecast contains an exceptionally large degree of uncertainty. The contraction in the economy in 2020 could be only 5% or as much as 11%, depending on how the epidemic progresses in Finland and around the world, and what success there is in bringing it under control. The degree of success in controlling the epidemic will also determine how quickly the economy will recover. It will probably not be possible to avoid permanent losses of output, but economic policy can be used to mitigate their scale.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    The economic recession caused by the pandemic has so far been milder in Finland than elsewhere in the euro area, but the coming winter will still be difficult. Vaccinations do, however, bring hope of an end to the crisis, both in Finland and around the world. COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and household consumption will drive growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. This will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022. At the end of the forecast period in 2023 the economy will be growing only slowly, as the conditions for growth in the Finnish economy in the long term are weak.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    During the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal policy has been deployed to support households and businesses hit by the crisis. At the same time, fiscal stimulus has been stepped up to bolster economic recovery. After the crisis, once the economy has returned to a sustainable growth path, the upward trend in the public debt-to-GDP ratio must be halted and fiscal space rebuilt. Changing the course of the public finances will require broad consensus on long-term objectives, clear short-term interim targets, and concrete measures over the coming years. With the coinciding rise in age-related expenditure, rebalancing the public finances will be difficult.
  • Ikonen, Pasi; Oinonen, Sami; Schmöller, Michaela; Vilmi, Lauri (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    Stagnation is a period of slow economic growth often characterised by low interest rates and low inflation. It is most commonly associated with the development of the Japanese economy since the early 1990s. In the euro area, the corona crisis together with an already ageing population, diminished productivity growth, and, in places, high levels of debt even before the onset of the current crisis may weaken the economy's ability to recover. There is a danger of the economy slipping into an equilibrium of low interest rates and low inflation, i.e. a liquidity trap. There is also a risk of inflation expectations declining. The policy response in the euro area to the economic outlook weakened by the corona crisis has been swift and decisive. Well-targeted policy measures can mitigate the risk of the economy following an adverse path.
  • Rehn, Olli (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    Economic policy in Finland must now find a way to live in two time periods at once. While we are currently combating an acute crisis, we must at the same time direct our thinking strongly towards the economic challenges of the post-crisis years. It is essential to both support businesses, households and economic recovery, while at the same time strengthening the conditions for sustainable, balanced economic growth and improved employment in the years ahead.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    The economic downturn in 2020 will be smaller in Finland than in the rest of the euro area, but this winter will still be difficult. COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and household consumption will drive growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. Growth will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022. At the end of the forecast period in 2023, the economy will return to a slow 1.5% growth rate reflecting the long-term sluggish growth conditions.
  • Pönkä, Harri; Sariola, Mikko (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    In the Bank of Finland’s December 2020 forecast, the crisis caused by COVID-19 is not expected to be as deep as the global financial crisis and recovery is expected to be faster. Although both recessions have had a broad-ranging impact, in the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic it is mainly service industries that have suffered. According to the forecast, the current crisis will result in temporarily slower economic growth in the next few years, but in the medium term the economy will see a return to the growth rates that preceded the crisis.
  • Kerola, Eeva (2020)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    China was at the forefront of the COVID-19 crisis. As a consequence, the value of Chinese exports plummeted by 13% year-on-year at the first quarter of 2020 (-40% y-o-y in February alone). However, it was not until March when other countries started to impose more or less severe restrictions on economic activity and movement of people. The year-on-year drop in exports was historically bad both for the United States and the euro area in April and May, while Japanese export growth was at its lowest in June.