Browsing by Subject "economic forecast"

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  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The Finnish economy is experiencing a sharp contraction on account of the coronavirus pandemic. Gross domestic product will decline by around 7% in 2020. In the next 2 years, the economy will grow around 3% per annum. The forecast contains an exceptionally large degree of uncertainty. The contraction in the economy in 2020 could be only 5% or as much as 11%, depending on how the epidemic progresses in Finland and around the world, and what success there is in bringing it under control. The degree of success in controlling the epidemic will also determine how quickly the economy will recover. It will probably not be possible to avoid permanent losses of output, but economic policy can be used to mitigate their scale.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
    Finland’s economic growth will slow in the forecast period to close to its potential rate. GDP will grow 1.6% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. Thereafter, the pace of growth will ease to 1.3% in 2021.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2021
    Bar raised for economic policy – demographic trend and public debt weigh on national economy ... 3 Forecast: Finnish economy takes off as pandemic eases ... 7 Households use their savings more quickly than anticipated ... 28 Public purse carried households and businesses through the COVID crisis ... 33 Forecast tables for 2021–2023 (June 2021) ... 44
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    Finland’s economic growth is broadly based, exports are fuelling growth and at the same time domestic demand continues to be strong. According to the Bank of Finland forecast, Finland’s GDP will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018. Over the years 2019–2020 the economy will grow approximately 1.5% per annum. Inflation will gather pace but throughout the forecast period will be slower than elsewhere in the euro area.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2021
    In the second half of 2020, China witnessed a rapid recovery from the covid-19 outbreak. Growth was supported by robust exports and economic stimulus measures geared to boosting fixed investment. China’s overall growth prospects, however, remain clouded by persisting structural imbalances further undermined by economic stimulus measures during the covid crisis. Due to the low base of 2020, the apparently strong economic growth this year will settle back to lower levels in the years ahead. Despite rapid recovery, the covid crisis has left the economy more vulnerable. Moreover, external uncertainties have increased, particularly with the efforts of the United States to lessen the interdependence of the two countries. China continues to postpone necessary policy reforms that would improve productivity. The latest five-year plan (2021–2025) calls for increased self-sufficiency and even more government intervention in the economy.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2021
    Stimulus spending on the corporate sector and fixed investment, together with a strong export performance, have helped China recover rapidly from a pandemic-induced slowdown in the first half of 2020. While rapid recovery and last year’s low basis assure high on-year GDP growth figure this year, the speedy phase of economic recovery is over and lower growth lies ahead. China is struggling with a shrinking working-age population and high levels of debt that hinder deployment of capital to other uses. Moreover, there has been little progress in productivity enhancing reforms. While higher-than-expected growth is possible if consumer demand strengthens markedly, the risk of below-forecast growth has also increased during the pandemic. Growth could be severely impacted if debt becomes unsustainable, financial market disruptions generate uncertainty that spreads to the real economy or foreign relations hit an impasse.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2022)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2022
    China’s economic growth slowed sharply towards the end of 2021. Despite subsequent stimulus efforts this winter, this year’s growth trend will be determined by the major covid outbreak and strict efforts all over China to suppress the outbreak. Recent worsening of the covid situation has complicated government attempts at reviving growth and strikes hard at an already struggling real estate sector. As a result, we now expect considerably lower economic growth this year than indicated in earlier forecasts, while 2023 growth is bolstered by rebound in consumption demand and the stimulus efforts in the second half of this year. Uncertainty related to the covid outbreak and government policy to control it are substantial. A prolonged covid wave could easily lead to even weaker growth than expected. However, if the situation quickly improves with infection rates brought under control or adoption of covid policies similar to those of other countries dealing with current virus variants, the economic damage could be mitigated. Moreover, real estate developers’ woes will continue to deepen, which might spill over more widely to the financial sector. The economic outlook would also be altered by further deterioration of relations with the West depressing growth, or conversely, a rapprochement with the West that boosts growth.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2021
    We have raised our economic forecast for Russia from last autumn to reflect the rise of oil prices and price expectations. The impacts of covid-19 on Russia were also less severe than anticipated. We see Russia’s GDP recovering from last year’s dip to growth of almost three per cent this year and next. Significant uncertainties continue to surround the outlook. Russia and the rest of the world may struggle longer with covid, oil markets remain sensitive, and, like many economies, the Russian economy is at an inflection point with regards to recovery. Growth will slow after next year, approaching its long-term future trajectory.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2021
    The forecast for the Russian economy has been revised upward on improved prospects for global economic growth and Russian exports. Oil prices and the expectations are also higher than in March. GDP should rise more than 3.5 % this year from last year’s low basis, before settling in 2022−2023 to slightly over 2.5 % p.a. on average. Several uncertainties surround the forecast. There could be unexpected changes in the course of the covid pandemic, global growth and oil prices. The return of international travel and the release of assets piled up by households last year can also significantly affect private consumption. Improved government revenues create opportunities for more generous budget spending.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2022)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2022
    Russia’s war on Ukraine is hurting the Russian economy. In light of instability and uncertainty in Russia, increased international economic and trade sanctions, as well as Russia’s own countersanctions, we expect Russian GDP to contract by about 10 % this year and remain in the next few years at levels seen a decade ago. The ruble’s exchange rate has fallen sharply, and Russia’s imports are expected to halve to levels reminiscent of the mid-2000s. The volume of Russian exports will decline, particularly as the EU reduces its energy imports from Russia. High inflation will depress household consumption, and fixed investment will suffer. The risks to this forecast are exceptionally large and concern e.g. the war, sanctions, inflation and fixed investment. Government budget spending could grow strongly.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The Finnish economy is experiencing a sharp contraction on account of the coronavirus pandemic. Gross domestic product will decline by around 7% this year and grow around 3% per annum in 2021 and 2022. The forecast contains an exceptionally large degree of uncertainty. According to alternative scenarios, the contraction in the economy in the current year could be just 5% or as much as 11%, depending on how the epidemic progresses in Finland and what success there is in bringing it under control. The degree of success in controlling the epidemic will also determine how quickly the economy will recover. It will probably not be possible to avoid permanent losses of output, but economic policy can be used to mitigate their scale.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2021
    Economic growth will gather pace across the board as the pandemic eases. Strong consumer confidence, together with the release of pent-up demand, will support household consumption. Finnish exports will rapidly rise back towards pre-pandemic levels as export markets revive, with investments also supporting economic growth. The Finnish economy will grow 2.9% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. This fast pace of growth will, however, be only temporary, and in 2023, GDP growth will slow to 1.3%, reflecting the lacklustre longer-term growth prospects of an ageing economy.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and private consumption will generate growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. This will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2021
    The Finnish economy will grow 2.9% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. This fast pace of growth will, however, be only temporary, and in 2023, GDP growth will slow to 1.3%.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2021
    The Finnish economy will grow 3.5% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022.
  • Bank of Finland (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2022
    The Finnish economy will grow 1.7% in 2022 and 0.5% in 2023.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Analysis
    The recovery of the Finnish economy from the COVID-19 crisis has been boosted by stronger-than-expected developments in the second half of 2020. Economic growth in 2021 is expected to be higher than projected in the December 2020 forecast, despite the worsening of the pandemic in the early months of the year. The forecast is based on the assumption that as vaccination coverage increases, society can be opened, and economic growth will gather pace. The economy will continue to recover in 2022, but in 2023 growth will slow to a rate enabled by the structures of the economy.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Analysis
    The Finnish economy strengthened faster than expected in the course of spring and summer 2021. For the year as a whole, the interim forecast of September 2021 projects stronger economic growth than the June forecast. The major uncertainties surrounding the forecast in the immediate years ahead relate to the progress of the pandemic both in Finland and globally. While robust economic growth will continue in 2022, the rate of growth is expected to taper off towards the end of the forecast horizon in 2023 and resume its long-term growth path.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    There is an increasing amount of information and tools available for the evaluation of the state of and developments in the economy. At the same time, economic decisions increasingly require the support of real-time information. Official statistics provide reliable information on the overall state of the economy, but these statistics are published with a considerable time lag. For example, the most recent official GDP statistics provide a picture of the economy in the previous 2–5 months.