Browsing by Subject "economic growth"

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  • Oinonen, Sami (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2016
    For the past three years or so, Japan has pursued an economic policy named after Prime Minister Abe as abenomics, with the intention of putting the country back on a path of sustainable economic growth via expansionary monetary and fiscal policy and structural reforms. These goals have not yet been achieved, but there has already been some progress. For the time being, economic growth has been sluggish, but the deflationary trend has been halted and structural reforms have moved forward. The preconditions for success of the programme are in place.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The Finnish economy is experiencing a sharp contraction on account of the coronavirus pandemic. Gross domestic product will decline by around 7% in 2020. In the next 2 years, the economy will grow around 3% per annum. The forecast contains an exceptionally large degree of uncertainty. The contraction in the economy in 2020 could be only 5% or as much as 11%, depending on how the epidemic progresses in Finland and around the world, and what success there is in bringing it under control. The degree of success in controlling the epidemic will also determine how quickly the economy will recover. It will probably not be possible to avoid permanent losses of output, but economic policy can be used to mitigate their scale.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2021
    The COVID-19 pandemic will ease due to the vaccination programme, and as a consequence the Finnish economy will start to grow at a brisk pace. As the COVID restrictions end and uncertainty decreases, households will be able to consume more freely. With economic growth also strong globally, this will give a fillip to Finland’s foreign trade. The pandemic is, however, not yet finally over. There is still the threat that it could worsen again, and this casts a shadow over both the growth outlook for Finland and that for the global economy as a whole. The Finnish economy will grow 2.9% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. The rapid growth will, however, be temporary, and the pace will slow to 1.3% already in 2023.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    The economic recession caused by the pandemic has so far been milder in Finland than elsewhere in the euro area, but the coming winter will still be difficult. Vaccinations do, however, bring hope of an end to the crisis, both in Finland and around the world. COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and household consumption will drive growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. This will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022. At the end of the forecast period in 2023 the economy will be growing only slowly, as the conditions for growth in the Finnish economy in the long term are weak.
  • Bank of Finland (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    Finland is a small open economy, and uncertainties in the global economy are also strongly reflected in Finland. The calculations presented here illustrate uncertainties relating to export and GDP forecasts by means of fan charts that demonstrate the uncertainties associated with the external environment. The fan charts incorporate both uncertainties in forecasting external factors and a view of asymmetric risk factors.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    Finland's recent brisk economic growth is largely a consequence of the upswing in the global economy. The external environment has always played a decisive role in shaping Finland’s GDP and, in particular, export growth. Changes in the external environment are, however, always surrounded by a high degree of uncertainty.
  • Lindblad, Annika; Silvo, Aino; Viertola, Hannu (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2021
    Supply-side bottlenecks have weakened the momentum of global growth. Finnish manufacturing companies are also suffering from shipping disruptions and input shortages. Under a scenario prepared by the Bank of Finland, supply disruptions reduce GDP growth in Finland by around 0.5 percentage points in 2021.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2018
    Economic growth has supported the efforts to improve Finland’s general government finances in recent years. However, changes in the composition of public revenue and expenditure are hampering the achievement of a balanced budget position. In the medium term, reaching the fiscal policy objectives will not become easier. Growth in agerelated expenditure will make rebalancing of the public finances more difficult, and the fiscal sustainability gap is still considerable.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
    Finland’s economic growth will slow in the forecast period to close to its potential rate. GDP will grow 1.6% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. Thereafter, the pace of growth will ease to 1.3% in 2021.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2021
    Bar raised for economic policy – demographic trend and public debt weigh on national economy ... 3 Forecast: Finnish economy takes off as pandemic eases ... 7 Households use their savings more quickly than anticipated ... 28 Public purse carried households and businesses through the COVID crisis ... 33 Forecast tables for 2021–2023 (June 2021) ... 44
  • Bank of Finland
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2018
    Now is the time to strengthen the public finances and the foundations for productivity growth 3 Forecast: Economic growth has passed its cyclical peak 7 Assessment of public finances 2018: Now is an opportune time to strengthen fiscal buffers 40 Slow productivity growth hinders export growth 46 Several reasons behind weak labour productivity 50 Sustainability of Finland’s public finances 54 Are Finns living beyond their means? 61 Divergence of productivity growth in Finnish companies 65 Debt risks amplified by housing company loans 83 Forecast tables for 2018–2021 (December 2018) 96
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2018
    Finnish growth will continue, but at a slower pace than in recent years. There is no returning to the growth rate that preceded the financial crisis.
  • Klein, Paul-Olivier; Weill, Laurent (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2018
    This paper analyses the effect of bank profitability on economic growth. While policymakers have shown major concerns for low levels of bank profitability, there are no empirical studies on the growth effects of bank profitability. To fill this gap, we investigate the impact of bank profitability on economic growth using a sample of 133 countries during the period 1999–2013 with several empirical approaches. Our first major conclusion is that a high current level of bank profitability contributes positively to economic growth. Our second conclusion is that the past level of bank profitability exerts a negative influence on economic growth leading to the absence of significance for the overall bank profitability. Hence, the positive impact of bank profitability on economic growth is short-lived. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks, including those using alternative measures for profitability and growth.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2021
    In the second half of 2020, China witnessed a rapid recovery from the covid-19 outbreak. Growth was supported by robust exports and economic stimulus measures geared to boosting fixed investment. China’s overall growth prospects, however, remain clouded by persisting structural imbalances further undermined by economic stimulus measures during the covid crisis. Due to the low base of 2020, the apparently strong economic growth this year will settle back to lower levels in the years ahead. Despite rapid recovery, the covid crisis has left the economy more vulnerable. Moreover, external uncertainties have increased, particularly with the efforts of the United States to lessen the interdependence of the two countries. China continues to postpone necessary policy reforms that would improve productivity. The latest five-year plan (2021–2025) calls for increased self-sufficiency and even more government intervention in the economy.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2021
    Stimulus spending on the corporate sector and fixed investment, together with a strong export performance, have helped China recover rapidly from a pandemic-induced slowdown in the first half of 2020. While rapid recovery and last year’s low basis assure high on-year GDP growth figure this year, the speedy phase of economic recovery is over and lower growth lies ahead. China is struggling with a shrinking working-age population and high levels of debt that hinder deployment of capital to other uses. Moreover, there has been little progress in productivity enhancing reforms. While higher-than-expected growth is possible if consumer demand strengthens markedly, the risk of below-forecast growth has also increased during the pandemic. Growth could be severely impacted if debt becomes unsustainable, financial market disruptions generate uncertainty that spreads to the real economy or foreign relations hit an impasse.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2022)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2022
    China’s economic growth slowed sharply towards the end of 2021. Despite subsequent stimulus efforts this winter, this year’s growth trend will be determined by the major covid outbreak and strict efforts all over China to suppress the outbreak. Recent worsening of the covid situation has complicated government attempts at reviving growth and strikes hard at an already struggling real estate sector. As a result, we now expect considerably lower economic growth this year than indicated in earlier forecasts, while 2023 growth is bolstered by rebound in consumption demand and the stimulus efforts in the second half of this year. Uncertainty related to the covid outbreak and government policy to control it are substantial. A prolonged covid wave could easily lead to even weaker growth than expected. However, if the situation quickly improves with infection rates brought under control or adoption of covid policies similar to those of other countries dealing with current virus variants, the economic damage could be mitigated. Moreover, real estate developers’ woes will continue to deepen, which might spill over more widely to the financial sector. The economic outlook would also be altered by further deterioration of relations with the West depressing growth, or conversely, a rapprochement with the West that boosts growth.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2021
    We have raised our economic forecast for Russia from last autumn to reflect the rise of oil prices and price expectations. The impacts of covid-19 on Russia were also less severe than anticipated. We see Russia’s GDP recovering from last year’s dip to growth of almost three per cent this year and next. Significant uncertainties continue to surround the outlook. Russia and the rest of the world may struggle longer with covid, oil markets remain sensitive, and, like many economies, the Russian economy is at an inflection point with regards to recovery. Growth will slow after next year, approaching its long-term future trajectory.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2021
    The forecast for the Russian economy has been revised upward on improved prospects for global economic growth and Russian exports. Oil prices and the expectations are also higher than in March. GDP should rise more than 3.5 % this year from last year’s low basis, before settling in 2022−2023 to slightly over 2.5 % p.a. on average. Several uncertainties surround the forecast. There could be unexpected changes in the course of the covid pandemic, global growth and oil prices. The return of international travel and the release of assets piled up by households last year can also significantly affect private consumption. Improved government revenues create opportunities for more generous budget spending.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2022)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2022
    Russia’s war on Ukraine is hurting the Russian economy. In light of instability and uncertainty in Russia, increased international economic and trade sanctions, as well as Russia’s own countersanctions, we expect Russian GDP to contract by about 10 % this year and remain in the next few years at levels seen a decade ago. The ruble’s exchange rate has fallen sharply, and Russia’s imports are expected to halve to levels reminiscent of the mid-2000s. The volume of Russian exports will decline, particularly as the EU reduces its energy imports from Russia. High inflation will depress household consumption, and fixed investment will suffer. The risks to this forecast are exceptionally large and concern e.g. the war, sanctions, inflation and fixed investment. Government budget spending could grow strongly.
  • Manninen, Otso (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2017
    A broader funding base especially for growth-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises would boost economic growth and employment. Cross-border capital flows would promote private risk sharing in Europe. To support these objectives, the European Commission has designed and partly implemented a Capital Markets Union. So far, the project to build a single market for capital has advanced at a relatively good pace, but now there are some difficult issues ahead, such as harmonisation of taxation and insolvency law. Although the toughest challenges still loom ahead, this should not be allowed to prevent completion of the initiative.