Browsing by Subject "ennusteet"

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  • Linnamo, Jussi (1960)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 34 ; 5 ; May
  • Nyholm, Juho; Silvo, Aino (2022)
    BoF Economics Review 4/2022
    We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several macro variables obtained from the Aino 2.0 model. We study several specifications for the set of variables and lags included in the BVAR, and evaluate their out-of-sample forecast accuracy with root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSFEs). We then select a preferred specification that performs best in predicting the loan stocks over forecast horizons ranging from one to twelve quarters ahead. The model adds to the existing toolkit of forecast models currently in use at the Bank of Finland and improves our understanding of household debt trends in Finland.
  • Francis, Bill; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Lingxiang (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2014
    Published in Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Volume 46, Issue 2, February 2016: 217–260
    We study the impact of firms' abnormal business operations on their future crash risk in stock prices. Computed based on real earnings management (REM) models, firms' deviation in real operations from industry norms (DRO) is shown to be positively associated with their future crash risk. This association is incremental to that between discretionary accruals (DA) and crash risk found by prior studies. Moreover, after Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) of 2002, DRO's predictive power for crash risk strengthens substantially, while DA's predictive power essentially dissipates. These results are consistent with the prior finding that managers shift from accrual earnings management (AEM) to REM after SOX. We further develop a suspect-firm approach to capture firms' use of DRO for REM purposes. This analysis shows that REM-firms experience a significant increase in crash risk in the following year. These findings suggest that the impact of DRO on crash risk is at least partially through REM.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The Finnish economy is experiencing a sharp contraction on account of the coronavirus pandemic. Gross domestic product will decline by around 7% in 2020. In the next 2 years, the economy will grow around 3% per annum. The forecast contains an exceptionally large degree of uncertainty. The contraction in the economy in 2020 could be only 5% or as much as 11%, depending on how the epidemic progresses in Finland and around the world, and what success there is in bringing it under control. The degree of success in controlling the epidemic will also determine how quickly the economy will recover. It will probably not be possible to avoid permanent losses of output, but economic policy can be used to mitigate their scale.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2021
    The economy is continuing to recover from the steep downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery is, however, being slowed by a worsening of the virus situation, shortfalls in raw materials and electronics components, and an increase in the general level of prices measured by the inflation rate. Economic growth will continue to be bolstered particularly by household spending on goods and services and investment by businesses. Once we have recovered from the recession, the pace of growth will slow, as the long-term outlook for the Finnish economy is overshadowed by the ageing population and the slow pace of labour productivity growth.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2021
    The COVID-19 pandemic will ease due to the vaccination programme, and as a consequence the Finnish economy will start to grow at a brisk pace. As the COVID restrictions end and uncertainty decreases, households will be able to consume more freely. With economic growth also strong globally, this will give a fillip to Finland’s foreign trade. The pandemic is, however, not yet finally over. There is still the threat that it could worsen again, and this casts a shadow over both the growth outlook for Finland and that for the global economy as a whole. The Finnish economy will grow 2.9% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. The rapid growth will, however, be temporary, and the pace will slow to 1.3% already in 2023.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2019
    Economic growth has slowed in the euro area and in Finland’s other important export markets. As a consequence of the weaker trend in the international economy, Finland’s annual economic growth will slow temporarily in 2020 to under 1%. Both the euro area and the global economy will, however, begin to gradually recover and provide a pull for the Finnish economy, too. Finland’s GDP growth will therefore pick up a little, to 1.1% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    The economic recession caused by the pandemic has so far been milder in Finland than elsewhere in the euro area, but the coming winter will still be difficult. Vaccinations do, however, bring hope of an end to the crisis, both in Finland and around the world. COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and household consumption will drive growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. This will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022. At the end of the forecast period in 2023 the economy will be growing only slowly, as the conditions for growth in the Finnish economy in the long term are weak.
  • Saarenheimo, Tuomas (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2005
    The median age of the global population is presently increasing by nearly three months every year.Over the next couple of decades, almost every country in the world is set to experience an unprecedented increase in the share of elderly population.This development has the potential to fundamentally affect the functioning of economic and financial systems globally.This study concentrates on the effects of ageing on the evolution of global interest rates and financial flows.The study uses a 73-cohort general equilibrium overlapping generations model of five major economic areas (USA, EU-15, Japan, China, and India).Utilising actual population data and UN population projections, the model yields predictions for major economic and financial variables up to 2050.The model predicts a decline in global equilibrium real interest rates over the next two decades, but the size of the decline depends crucially on the future evolution of public pension benefits.If the present generosity of pension systems is maintained - leading to a steep increase in the cost of the pension systems - the maximum decline of interest rates is projected to be about 70 basis points from present levels.If pension benefits are reduced to offset the increasing cost pressures, the decline in global equilibrium interest rates can be much larger, while increases in the retirement age work in the opposite direction.The results do not anticipate a 'financial market meltdown' - a collapse in asset prices associated with the retirement of the baby-boomers - predicted by some.On the contrary, bond prices should fare fairly well over the next three decades.The main reason for this is that increasing life expectancy at retirement creates a need for higher retirement saving - in the future, people will want to retire wealthier than they do today.This trend more than offsets the negative effect of the retirement of baby-boomers on asset demand.Key words: Ageing, real interest rates, financial flows, public pension systems JEL classification numbers: J11, E44
  • Parkkinen, Pekka (1987)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 61 ; 3 ; March
  • Juvonen, Petteri; Anttonen, Jetro; Fornaro, Paolo; Nissilä, Wilma; Nyberg, Henri; Pönkä, Harri (2019)
    Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja 3/2019
    Viimeisten vuosikymmenien aikana kansainvälisessä ekonometrisessa tutkimuskirjallisuudessa on esitetty useita makrotaloudellista tilaa kuvaavien muuttujien informaatiota yhdistäviä lyhyen aikavälin mallinnus- ja ennustemenetelmiä. Näitä ns. nowcasting-menetelmiä on myös onnistuneesti hyödynnetty ja sovellettu Suomen talouden seurantaan. Tässä artikkelissa esittelemme katsauksen monella taholla tehtyyn kehitystyöhön ja näiden hankkeiden yhteydessä saatuihin tuloksiin Suomen aineiston tapauksessa. Suomen taloutta koskevien suhdanneindeksien hyödyntämisen myötä suhdanteiden käännepisteiden määrittäminen on tarkempaa ja käännepisteiden tuottamia taantumajaksoja voidaan vastaavasti ennustaa binäärivastemalleja käyttäen. Suomen Pankin nowcasting-malli mahdollistaa puolestaan uusien tilastojulkistusten uutisarvon analyysin. Tilastokeskuksessa ja Etlassa on vastaavasti hyödynnetty moderneja koneoppimisen menetelmiä, jotta puutteellisesta mikroaineistosta kyetään tuottamaan bruttokansantuotteen pikaestimaatteja aiempaa lyhyemmällä viiveellä. ETLAnowprojektissa hyödynnetään puolestaan mm. uusia Google-hakutilastoja työttömyyden ennustamisessa.
  • Bank of Finland (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    Finland is a small open economy, and uncertainties in the global economy are also strongly reflected in Finland. The calculations presented here illustrate uncertainties relating to export and GDP forecasts by means of fan charts that demonstrate the uncertainties associated with the external environment. The fan charts incorporate both uncertainties in forecasting external factors and a view of asymmetric risk factors.
  • Sariola, Mikko; Viertola, Hannu (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2022
    This alternative scenario examines what impact Russia’s war in Ukraine could have on the Finnish economy in the worst case. The scenario describes a situation where an escalation of the war causes the global economy to slacken more dramatically than in the baseline forecast, with weaker financing conditions, energy availability problems and exacerbated supply chain disruptions. Compared to the Bank of Finland’s June 2022 baseline forecast, a deepening crisis could drive the Finnish economy into recession, at the same time accelerating inflation significantly in the immediate years ahead. Unemployment would rise as output falls.
  • Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús; Slacik, Tomás (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2007
    Published in Economics of Transition, Volume 18, Issue 1, January 2010, Pages 123-141
    We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants.Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis happening after one week but in less than a month.We give empirical evidence that the indicator performs well for two important currency crises in Eastern Europe: the crisis in the Czech Republic in 1997 and the Russian crisis in 1998. Keywords: Currency crisis, term structure of interest rates, transition economies. JEL classi.cation: F31, F34, E43.
  • Niu, Linlin; Xu, Xiu; Chen, Ying (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2015
    We propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model for adaptive estimation and forecasting of three of China’s key macroeconomic variables: GDP growth, inflation and the 7-day interbank lending rate. The approach takes into account possible structural changes in the data-generating process to select a local homogeneous interval for model estimation, and is particularly well-suited to a transition economy experiencing ongoing shifts in policy and structural adjustment. Our results indicate that the proposed method outperforms alternative models and forecast methods, especially for forecast horizons of 3 to 12 months. Our 1-quarter ahead adaptive forecasts even match the performance of the well-known CMRC Langrun survey forecast. The selected homogeneous intervals indicate gradual changes in growth of industrial production driven by constant evolution of the real economy in China, as well as abrupt changes in interestrate and inflation dynamics that capture monetary policy shifts.
  • Newby, Elisa; Railavo, Jukka; Ripatti, Antti (2011)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 3
    The purpose of economic forecasts is to support economic agents decision-making by providing a coherent picture of the present state of the economy and the outlook for the future. Since 2004, a key tool for preparing the Bank of Finland s forecast has been the Aino model.1 It is employed as a tool for integrating forecast information. The new version of the Aino model was introduced in the preparation of the March 2010 forecast. This article describes the features of the model and its use in the preparation of forecasts.
  • Oinonen, Sami; Vilmi, Lauri (2021)
    BoF Economics Review 5/2021
    This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and surveybased inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation dynamics. Its forecasting performance is also comparable to the performance of the ECB’s official forecasts in both short- and long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light updating procedure it provides almost real-time information on inflation outlook.
  • Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2014
    This paper examines aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (ECB SPF). We analyse possible impacts of changing panel composition on short and long term point forecasts and forecast uncertainties using approach, which is based on a set of sub-panels of fixed composition. Our results indicate that the unbalanced panel data do not cause systematic distortions to aggregated survey information. However, micro level analysis of expectations would also be useful, especially in times of wide disagreement across forecasters and high levels of inflation uncertainty. Keywords: survey data, expectations, changing panel composition
  • Ahlstedt, Monica (1998)
    Suomen Pankki. E 11
    This study uses GARCH modelling to estimate and forecast conditional variances and covariances of returns calculated from a set of financial market series: twelve markka exchange rates, twelve corresponding shortterm euro interest rates and the Finnish short-term interest rate, the Finnish long-term interest rate, the Finnish all-share index and real estate prices. The variances are specified through univariate estimation and the analysis is then extended to a portfolio of assets by presenting and applying two alternative methods for covariance modelling.The first method is based on the assumption of identical autocorrelation structure for variances and covariances.The other method is based on the assumption of constant correlation.Both methods are flexible and enable the extension of the analysis to a large number of return series. The study then derives a forecast function from the models estimated from pooled data for variances and covariances of exchange rates and interest rates and from individual data for the other rates, in the form of a weighted moving average of past squared residuals.GARCH forecasts for the variances of individual return series as well as portfolios are compared in an ex post context, on the one hand, to two alternative forecasts based on piecewise homoscedastic variance models and, on the other, to actual data on squared returns. The empirical results in the study show that the estimated variance-covariance models display a high degree of similarity both across the variables and across subsamples (ie across exchange rate regimes); GARCH(1,1) seems to represent the underlying conditional variance process fairly well.In terms of persistence in the variance processes, which is nearly IGARCH(l,1), the estimated models are also remarkably similar both for the individual variables and for pooled data.Hence parsimony suggests using an integrated process to represent volatility in the sample.The study also argues that the estimated GARCH models represent a methodological and empirical improvement over those estimates typically used eg in value-at-risk calculations. Keywords: time-dependent volatility, GARCH estimation, value-at-risk models
  • Paloviita, Maritta; Virén, Matti (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2014
    This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters are also examined. Our analysis indicates that forecast errors are positively related to the subjective uncertainties based on probability distributions, but not to disagreement (standard deviation of point forecasts). We also show that forecast errors, which are rather persistent, are related to forecast revisions. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors. Key words: Forecasting, Survey data, Expectations JEL Classification: C53, E37, E31