Browsing by Subject "forecast"

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  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The Finnish economy is experiencing a sharp contraction on account of the coronavirus pandemic. Gross domestic product will decline by around 7% in 2020. In the next 2 years, the economy will grow around 3% per annum. The forecast contains an exceptionally large degree of uncertainty. The contraction in the economy in 2020 could be only 5% or as much as 11%, depending on how the epidemic progresses in Finland and around the world, and what success there is in bringing it under control. The degree of success in controlling the epidemic will also determine how quickly the economy will recover. It will probably not be possible to avoid permanent losses of output, but economic policy can be used to mitigate their scale.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
    Accessible summary.
    Finland’s economic growth will slow over the next three years. This is due to both international and domestic factors.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2021
    The COVID-19 pandemic will ease due to the vaccination programme, and as a consequence the Finnish economy will start to grow at a brisk pace. As the COVID restrictions end and uncertainty decreases, households will be able to consume more freely. With economic growth also strong globally, this will give a fillip to Finland’s foreign trade. The pandemic is, however, not yet finally over. There is still the threat that it could worsen again, and this casts a shadow over both the growth outlook for Finland and that for the global economy as a whole. The Finnish economy will grow 2.9% in 2021 and 3.0% in 2022. The rapid growth will, however, be temporary, and the pace will slow to 1.3% already in 2023.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2019
    Economic growth has slowed in the euro area and in Finland’s other important export markets. As a consequence of the weaker trend in the international economy, Finland’s annual economic growth will slow temporarily in 2020 to under 1%. Both the euro area and the global economy will, however, begin to gradually recover and provide a pull for the Finnish economy, too. Finland’s GDP growth will therefore pick up a little, to 1.1% in 2021 and 1.3% in 2022.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    The economic recession caused by the pandemic has so far been milder in Finland than elsewhere in the euro area, but the coming winter will still be difficult. Vaccinations do, however, bring hope of an end to the crisis, both in Finland and around the world. COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and household consumption will drive growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. This will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022. At the end of the forecast period in 2023 the economy will be growing only slowly, as the conditions for growth in the Finnish economy in the long term are weak.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
    Finland's fiscal situation is challenging. The general government deficit is still high, and public debt is on an upward trend. Attainment of more balanced public finances is hampered not only by high unemployment-related and other social security expenditure but also by rapid growth in age-related spending and low economic growth. Therefore, the problems with public finances cannot be explained by cyclical factors alone. Rather, there is a significant and long-term structural problem with Finland's public finances. The public debt problem makes the Finnish economy more vulnerable to global economic disruptions.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
    Finland’s economic growth will slow in the forecast period to close to its potential rate. GDP will grow 1.6% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. Thereafter, the pace of growth will ease to 1.3% in 2021.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    Editorial: Economic policy must live in two time frames at once ...... 3 Forecast: The economy will recover from the pandemic, but even after recovery, growth will be slow ...... 7 The depths of the COVID-19 crisis, and the recovery ...... 35 Assessment of public finances 2020: Attention should already be turned to the post-crisis years ...... 59 Forecast tables for 2020–2023 (December 2020) ...... 72
  • Bank of Finland (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    Monetary policy remains accommodative, net asset purchases about to end 3 Finland's economy booming 6 Forecast assumptions: International economy and external assumptions 32 Alternative scenario: Clouds over the global economy 36 First quarter of 2018 sees a surge in investments 39 Inflation now explained by different factors than during the recession 42 Unemployment rate in Finland close to structural level 47 Are weakly profitable firms suppressing economic growth? 50 The output gap has closed; Finland's economy at cyclical peak 63 Bank of Finland staff forecasts: an evaluation 72 Finland’s long-term growth prospects moderate 88 Forecast tables for 2018–2020 (june 2018) 101
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
    Editorial: Public finances need more room for manoeuvre 3 Slowing growth in the shadow of global uncertainties 7 Improvements in employment held back by population ageing 38 Measures of core inflation filter out temporary price changes 40 Alternative scenario: Raising the employment rate to 75% will require much faster economic growth 43 Most recent statistical data point to faster-than-expected moderation of economic growth 50 What factors influence house prices and residential construction? 54 Forecast tables for 2019–2021 70
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2018
    Finnish growth will continue, but at a slower pace than in recent years. There is no returning to the growth rate that preceded the financial crisis.
  • Bank of Finland (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    Finland's economic growth will continue and remain broadly based. Strong global demand, improved cost-competitiveness, growth in household income and favourable financing conditions will all support growth over the forecast period. GDP growth forecasts for 2018–2020 stand at 2.9%, 2.2% and 1.7%. The declining growth rate in the immediate years ahead reflects the moderate long-term outlook for growth. Inflation will remain close to 1% over the years 2018–2019 before gathering pace and reaching 1.5% in 2020.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2019
    The peak of the cycle in the Finnish economy is now over and economic growth is temporarily losing momentum. Although growth for the current year is still good, there are clear signs of a slowdown. Growth has already slowed in Finland’s important trading partners, and in the domestic economy both business and household confidence has been declining for some time. The continued sluggishness of global and euro area growth is reflected in Finland’s growth figures, which will dip below 1% annual growth in 2020. However, both the euro area and the global economy will gradually recover and exert a pull on the Finnish economy, too. GDP growth will pick up slightly in 2021–2022, to 1.1% and 1.3%, respectively.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2015)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2015
    Chinese economic growth slowed to just over 7 % p.a. in 2014. This widely expected slowdown in growth also comports with our view on China’s long-term growth prospects. BOFIT sees GDP growth this year remaining near 7 % and then slowing to around 6 % in 2016 and 2017. China’s decades of sustained high growth are now behind us, and maintaining conditions conducive to growth will become ever more elusive and require deliberate progress in reforms. Risks to the economy will rise with slowing growth.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2015)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2015
    As projected in earlier forecasts, Chinese economic growth continues to slow. 2015 GDP growth overall should average around 7 % p.a., and then the growth is expected to fall to around 6 % p.a. in 2016 and 2017. China faces the challenge of creating new engines of growth and managing its existing problems. This calls for determined reforms that inevitably will also bring about various kind of disturbances in the economy. Given decelerating growth and rising indebtedness, the risk that the Chinese economy underperforms this forecast is rising.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2016)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2016
    Economic growth in China continued to slow in 2015, with annual GDP growth coming in at slightly below 7 %. Even with the negative market reactions to lower growth, there is little change in the long-term outlook. The modest slowing trend in growth will continue and China will move ahead with structural adjustments to its economy. As in our earlier forecasts, we expect the Chinese economy to grow at around 6 % p.a. in 2016 and 2017. In 2018, growth will slow to around 5 %. As China’s economy opens up to the world, it faces new risks that require more transparent policy responses. China’s high (and rising) debt-to-GDP ratio makes it increasingly susceptible to severe economic disturbances.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2016)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2016
    ​Growth of the Chinese economy this year has slightly exceeded our expectations, largely due to the government’s stimulus policies. We now expect GDP to grow about 6.5 % p.a. this year. However, China’s growth outlook has not changed. We project growth to slow to 6 % in 2017 and 5 % in 2018, and consider the slowdown as a natural aspect of the China’s economic development. As structural adjustments proceed, the role of consumer demand and services in the economy will become more pronounced. Concerns over economic development have increased, and the possibility of a rapid deceleration in growth during the forecast period cannot be ruled out.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2017)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2017
    Official Chinese figures show that GDP growth was last year 6.7 % p.a., which is slightly less than in 2015. The trend largely follows our forecast from last September. As before, GDP growth is expected to slow to around 6 % this year and around 5 % in 2018 and 2019. The basic outlook for the forecast period is quite positive as growth should remain robust and the slowdown appears under control. This requires, however, improved discipline with regards to rising debt and more determined implementation of reform policies than we observe now. The government’s strict adherence to a 6.5 % GDP growth target distorts economic policy and encourages data manipulation to an extent that it may already be an issue.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2017)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 2/2017
    China’s economic growth has picked up from last year. Official figures show GDP rose by 6.9 % p.a. in the first half of 2017, but with the expected slowing towards end of the year, growth for this year should come in at around 6.5 %. In 2018 and 2019, economic growth should keep slowing gradually as China pulls back from debt-financed stimulus policies to a more sustainable framework. This gradual slowdown is, above all, a natural evolution for China’s economy that reflects on-going structural changes. The financial market risks are elevated and pose a risk to economic growth – and even more so if China continues to push the economy to the 2020 growth target with stimulus policies. Uncertainties related to Chinese statistical data have made it even more difficult to evaluate economic trends.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2018)
    BOFIT Forecast for China 1/2018
    The pace of China’s economic growth accelerated slightly last year, with official figures showing GDP growth of 6.9 % p.a. Even if the economic cycle appears on the upswing, growth is undergirded by the government’s heavy-handed stimulus policies. Since the Communist Party’s National Congress last autumn, the policy stance has tightened and the role of the party has been amplified. As a result, we have slightly boosted our GDP forecast for this year, putting it on par with China’s official GDP growth target of “about 6.5 %.” Going forward, high growth fuelled by debt will become unsustainable. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is already high and will continue to rise in the forecast period. Thus, we expect growth to slow to a more sustainable level of around 5 % by 2020. Several sources of uncertainty from both domestic and international markets cloud China’s economic outlook. Downside risks have increased from our previous forecast.