Browsing by Subject "foreign trade"

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  • Bank of Finland (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2015
    Finland is a small open economy, where fluctuations in exports and imports have shaped the big picture of developments in the economy. A historical review of these developments suggests that the current situation provides no such conditions for rapid export growth supporting the economy as those seen in the earlier growth phases of economic history. Despite facing difficulties, the forest industry is still one of the pillars of Finnish exports alongside the machinery and metal industry.
  • Bank of Finland (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    Finland's economic growth will continue and remain broadly based. Strong global demand, improved cost-competitiveness, growth in household income and favourable financing conditions will all support growth over the forecast period. GDP growth forecasts for 2018–2020 stand at 2.9%, 2.2% and 1.7%. The declining growth rate in the immediate years ahead reflects the moderate long-term outlook for growth. Inflation will remain close to 1% over the years 2018–2019 before gathering pace and reaching 1.5% in 2020.
  • Gulan, Adam (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    What are the economic causes and consequences of large trade disruptions? Are they able to unleash a full-scale economic crisis? In recent years, the news has been full of events such as the US-China trade war, Brexit and even the collapse of tourism services exports in southern Europe following the outbreak of COVID-19. Finland has its own unique and still recent experience from the early 1990s, when the Soviet Union withdrew from the clearing trade agreement in December 1990.
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2021)
    Journal of International Economics July
    Published in BoF DP 9/2019
    We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.
  • Solanko, Laura (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2016
    The phenomenal economic growth in China and relative decline in Russia have made these two emerging economies more similar during the last quarter of the century. Both are large, middle-income countries dependent on foreign trade and burdened with many structural problems that partly stem from their communist past. The domestic structural issues may indeed explain most of the apparent growth slow-down in both of these economies. This short note argues that a significant difference between the two is visible in trade policies. As China is sticking to the “Opening up and reform” policies, Russia is becoming increasingly protectionist. These differences have become increasing visible since the global financial crisis.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2017)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 5/2017
    This overview is a compilation of ten concise articles that give a general picture of the current situation and prospects of Russia’s oil and gas sector. The articles are independent and together they give a rich overview of the development of the oil and gas sector and the significance of the sector in the Russian economy. The oil sector generates more export and tax revenue for Russia, but the gas sector plays a key role, particularly from a domestic market perspective. In the next few years, Russia’s oil production and exports are expected to grow slowly at best, because a stronger increase in production would require more investment. In oil production and particularly in exports, the focus of growth has shifted eastwards, and China has become one of Russia’s most important export markets. Growth of natural gas production, on the other hand, is limited more by demand than supply factors and gas production will remain focused in the future on its present locations in Russia’s Arctic regions. Despite plans, the export market for natural gas will still be mainly in the West, due to limited transport infrastructure. Examination of both the Russian and the international oil and gas sector is complicated by statistical peculiarities.
  • Bank of Finland (2009)
    Editorial+Cyclical credit policy an empirical test+On the correlation between defaults and losses given default+Specialisation in foreign trade reveals countries' comparative advantage
  • Nuutilainen, Riikka; Rautava, Jouko (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 2/2020
    This paper examines the development of economic relations between Russia and China in recent years, focusing on how the slowdown in China’s growth and changes in its economic structures might impact Russia’s economic outlook and the future of China-Russia economic relations. Economic relations between the countries have progressed favorably over the past decade with increased trade and Russian oil exports to China buoying Russian economic growth. While this trade cooperation has served both countries’ interests, it has also reinforced Russia’s dependence on commodity exports. Like the rest of the world, Russia has to deal with China’s slowing economic growth. Those repercussions, however, are particularly challenging in Russia’s case.
  • Korhonen, Iikka (2019)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 2/2019
    In this note, I review the literature on the economic effects of sanctions against Russia and Russia’s counter-sanctions. As a general observation, studies of the macroeconomic effects of sanctions on Russia and their effects on international trade and financial flows must deal with the nearly concurrent oil price collapse at the introduction of sanctions. Most papers support the view that sanctions have worked as planned, noting the drag they have imposed on Russia’s general economic development since 2014. This adverse effect most likely operates by depressing both foreign trade and foreign capital flows into Russia. Russia’s own counter-sanctions have also had a clear negative effect on the welfare of the average Russian household.
  • Niemi, Riku (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 1/2016
    Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus established the Eurasian Customs Union in 2010. Five years later, it became the Eurasian Economic Union. External tariffs have been harmonised and some internal trade barriers have been tackled. Most notably, internal border controls had been abolished by July 2011. This policy brief brings together facts and data on recent changes in trade-related institutions, trade barriers and trade flows across the internal and external borders of the Union. Trade barriers and flows are analysed at the level of product categories. The purpose is to identify the countries and sectors where the greatest trade creation or diversion is likely to have taken place and whether notable changes can be observed.
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2016
    The Finnish economy is returning to growth. Economic data have strengthened, and leading indicators suggest growth continuing through the forecast years. However, this growth is entirely dependent on domestic demand, and net exports remain weak. The Finnish economy is still lagging behind activity in the rest of the euro area, and real GDP will not recover its pre-financial crisis level even by the end of the forecast period. Meanwhile, the increasing role of the service sector in the economy slows productivity growth and the decline in the working-age population also dampens longer-term prospects. The Bank of Finland forecast foresees 1.1% GDP growth in 2016. The economy will continue to grow by 1.1% in 2017 and 1.0% in 2018.
  • Gulan, Adam (2021)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Mitkä ovat kansainvälisen kaupan huomattavien häiriöiden taloudelliset syyt ja seuraukset? Voivatko ne aiheuttaa täysimittaisen talouskriisin? Viime vuosia ovat värittäneet uutistapahtumat kuten Yhdysvaltojen ja Kiinan kauppasota, Brexit sekä jopa turismiin liittyvien palvelujen viennin romahtaminen Etelä-Euroopassa koronapandemian puhkeamisen vuoksi. Suomella on oma ainutlaatuinen ja yhä varsin tuore kokemus 1990-luvun alusta, jolloin Neuvostoliitto vetäytyi clearingsopimuksesta joulukuussa 1990.