Browsing by Subject "gross domestic product"

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  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    The economic recession caused by the pandemic has so far been milder in Finland than elsewhere in the euro area, but the coming winter will still be difficult. Vaccinations do, however, bring hope of an end to the crisis, both in Finland and around the world. COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and household consumption will drive growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. This will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022. At the end of the forecast period in 2023 the economy will be growing only slowly, as the conditions for growth in the Finnish economy in the long term are weak.
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2016
    One of the key objectives of the Government Programme is to raise the employment rate to 72% by the end of the parliamentary term. This means increasing the current number of people in employment by just over 100,000 by the end of 2019. If near-term economic growth is to remain around 1%, i.e. as foreseen in the baseline forecast, achievement of the objective will be unlikely. On the basis of the alternative scenario, attainment of the employment objective in the Government Programme requires markedly faster economic growth than at present. GDP growth in 2017–2019 should average 2.5% annually, i.e. about 1.3 percentage points faster than the baseline suggests, in order for the objective to be attained.
  • Bank of Finland (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    Finland is a small open economy, and uncertainties in the global economy are also strongly reflected in Finland. The calculations presented here illustrate uncertainties relating to export and GDP forecasts by means of fan charts that demonstrate the uncertainties associated with the external environment. The fan charts incorporate both uncertainties in forecasting external factors and a view of asymmetric risk factors.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    Finland's recent brisk economic growth is largely a consequence of the upswing in the global economy. The external environment has always played a decisive role in shaping Finland’s GDP and, in particular, export growth. Changes in the external environment are, however, always surrounded by a high degree of uncertainty.
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2016
    Despite increased economic and market uncertainty, China’s GDP statistics still point to almost 7% growth, which is in line with official growth targets. According to the statistics, the deceleration of growth has been very smooth. This has once again raised suspicions over the reliability of Chinese GDP data. However, although there is much room for improvement in the coverage and transparency of the Chinese statistics, recent studies do not generally find evidence of significant or systematic falsification of GDP figures.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2018
    Economic growth has supported the efforts to improve Finland’s general government finances in recent years. However, changes in the composition of public revenue and expenditure are hampering the achievement of a balanced budget position. In the medium term, reaching the fiscal policy objectives will not become easier. Growth in agerelated expenditure will make rebalancing of the public finances more difficult, and the fiscal sustainability gap is still considerable.
  • Granziera, Eleonora; Kilponen, Juha (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    Monetary policy decisions are based on assessment of the current and future state of the economy. In order to obtain forecasts, central banks build models, which are simplified representations of the complex interactions among macroeconomic variables. The Bank of Finland regularly publishes its forecasts, using a large set of data regarding current economic developments. Analysis of this large set of data includes the use of formal macroeconomic models, which are also employed to make projections for the future course of the economy. These projections represent the most likely values for the main macroeconomic variables of the Finnish economy.
  • Bank of Finland (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2015
    As projected in earlier forecasts, Chinese economic growth continues to slow. 2015 GDP growth overall should average around 7 % p.a., and then the growth is expected to fall to around 6 % p.a. in 2016 and 2017. China faces the challenge of creating new engines of growth and managing its existing problems. This calls for determined reforms that inevitably will also bring about various kind of disturbances in the economy. Given decelerating growth and rising indebtedness, the risk that the Chinese economy underperforms this forecast is rising.
  • Kerola, Eeva (2019)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    China announced in January that its real economic growth slowed to 6.4 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2018. For the full year 2018, the economy expanded by 6.6 percent. It was the weakest pace since 1990, but nevertheless managed to hit the official pre-announced real growth target of around 6.5 percent.
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2016
    The Bank of Finland forecasts a global growth rate of 2.8% in 2016, rising only slightly to 3.2% in 2017–2018. The growth pick-up reflects a recovery of the emerging economies suffering from the recession. World trade growth in the forecast period will be close to world GDP growth. The forecasts for the United States and the EU22 are more moderate than previously, but growth should still exceed the estimated potential growth rate. The growth forecast for China in 2016–2017 remains at 6%, from which it is expected to slow to 5% in 2018.
  • Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha; Kortela, Tomi; Sariola, Mikko (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
    The expanded asset purchase programme (EAPP) has had a significant positive impact on macroeconomic developments in Finland. The ECB’s decisions of December 2015 and March 2016 are forecast to boost Finland’s GDP by approximately 0.5%. The EAPP has also had a significant impact on price developments: without the purchase programme, inflation in 2016 would have been around 0.3 of a percentage point slower. The programme has also substantially increased both corporate and household credit demand.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2017
    The Bank of Finland foresees global growth strengthening relative to 2016 and continuing at a rate over 3% in 2017–2019. Improved confidence in both the United States and more broadly will reinforce favourable developments over the short term. Economic growth in the EU22 (euro area, United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark) and the United States will remain fairly rapid throughout the forecast horizon. Growth in China will slow in an orderly manner, thus dampening global activity towards the end of the forecast period. Oil price increases will push up inflation in 2017 but will simultaneously support the recovery of the Russian economy.
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2016
    The global economy is expected to grow by a full 3% annually in 2017–2018, i.e. only slightly faster than in 2016. World trade growth will remain slow relative to GDP growth, as in recent years. In the United States and China, economic growth will continue to be strong and will sustain global growth. A slight rise in the oil price will support gradual economic recovery in Russia. Euro area growth is expected to remain relatively brisk, driven by domestic demand. Brexit will cast a shadow over the growth outlook, particularly for the United Kingdom but also to some extent for the rest of Europe. Emerging economies will continue to develop at a relatively steady pace during the forecast period and are not expected to be much affected by the dip in European growth.
  • Liikanen, Erkki (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    The current news on the Finnish economy is positive, and the outlook has improved. Economic growth has continued and is now more broadly based than before. Exports and corporate investment are both growing, in addition to household demand. The employment rate has gradually risen and the general government deficit shrunk. Cost-competitiveness has taken a turn for the better.
  • Itkonen, Juha (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2017
    The impact of digitalisation is not fully reflected in economic statistics. Even though the commonly used economic metrics such as GDP are still relevant in assessing the state of the economy, the production of statistics should be developed to better measure the digital economy. Because of digitalisation, GDP may have understated output growth, even though measurement errors alone do not explain the exceptionally weak developments in recent years, nor do they eliminate the key challenges for the Finnish economy. Digital technology has, however, improved our well-being in ways that aredifficult to measure in money.
  • Bank of Finland (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    The GDP deflator reflects the cost-competitiveness of Finnish production better than consumer prices do. Changes in the GDP deflator describe the change in prices of goods and services produced in Finland regardless of whether they are consumed in Finland or abroad.
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2016
    According to the most recent quarterly national accounts, real GDP in the first quarter of 2016 grew by 0.6% quarter on quarter and 1.6% year on year. The latest quarterly national accounts data signal similar economic developments for early 2016 than the data previously published, i.e. economic growth continued, supported by private investments and private consumption. Real GDP growth in the first quarter was slightly stronger than suggested by preliminary data. The figures for the fourth quarter of 2015 were also revised upward. The economy has now grown for two consecutive quarters.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2017
    According to the most recent quarterly national accounts, Finland’s GDP in the first quarter of 2017 grew 1.2% quarter on quarter and 2.7% year on year. The data signal similar economic developments for early 2017 as previously estimated, i.e. economic growth is becoming more broadly based. Net exports, in particular, increased, fuelled by a tangible increase in exports. However, GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 was slightly weaker than suggested by the flash estimate published in May, while GDP figures for the fourth quarter of 2016 were revised upwards. Nevertheless, the Finnish economy has now grown for three consecutive quarters.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2016
    On 2 December 2016, Statistics Finland published preliminary quarterly national accounts containing the latest statistical data on Finnish economic developments in the third quarter of 2016.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    During the third quarter of 2017, Finland’s GDP increased by 3%, private consumption by 2.1% and public consumption by 1.8% year on year. Investments increased by 9.3% year on year.