Browsing by Subject "hinnat"

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  • Funke, Michael; Paetz, Michael (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2012
    In the wake of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the macroeconomic discussion has returned to the topic of proactive macroprudential policies. One proactive approach, the use of loan-to-value (LTV) policies to curb booming property markets, has long been used by Hong Kong's monetary authorities to actively manage and mitigate the potential fallout from housing price bubbles. Here, we analyse the merits of this countercyclical macroprudential policy in a New Keynesian DSGE model. We conclude that nonlinear LTV policy rules implemented in reaction to episodes of high property price inflation can limit transmission of housing price cycle effects to the real economy. Keywords: Macroprudential policy, DSGE model, loan-to-value ratio, Hong Kong. JEL classification: C63, E21, E32, E69, F41.
  • Taipalus, Katja (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2006
    The dividend yield ratio in the stock markets is, to an extent, comparable to the rent-price ratio in the housing market.Taking advantage of this definitional similarity, one can then use the traditional unit root test for log dividend yield in this case, the log rent-price ratio to test for the existence of real estate bubbles.Such unit root tests are conducted for Finland, USA, UK, Spain and Germany, and the simple test results strongly suggest the existence of bubbles in nearly all of these countries.In addition to this, we develop a continuous and monthly rent-price information-based method to track the periods when real estate prices diverge from their fundamental levels.This indicator seems to work quite well in most cases, indicating bubbles during periods which, according to the consensus literature, are seen as periods of sizable upward or downward shifts in house prices. Key words: house price, bubble, unit root JEL classification numbers: G12
  • Mayes, David G. (2008)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 2008/11
    1 Introduction 3 2 Context 4 3 Price-level and inflation targets 6 4 Communicating the Price Level Target 11 5 Intermediate regimes 13 6 Uncertainty and Robust Policy 13 7 Changing the Regime 14 8 Concluding remark 16 List of charts Chart 1. Price level path targets and inflation targets contrasted 7 Chart 2. Inflation Experience Compared to a Price Level Target 8 Chart 3. Reacting to Shocks under Inflation and Price level Targets 9
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Wachtel, Paul (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2005
    Published in Research in International Business and Finance Vol. 20, No. 2 (2006), pp. 215-226
    We assess the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through in the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).We do this in the framework of vector autoregressive regressions, utilising impulse functions and variance decompositions with monthly data that starts in 1999 in order to avoid periods of very high inflation and the Russian crisis.We find that exchange rate movements have a clear impact on price developments in the CIS countries.The speed of the pass-through is also fairly high: in most cases the full effect is transmitted into domestic prices in less than 12 months.Unlike in many other emerging market economies, an additional effect from US prices on to domestic prices is not significant.The extent of the exchange rate pass-through is usually much higher than in our benchmark group of emerging market countries.Variance decomposition shows that the relative share of exchange rates in explaining changes in domestic prices is higher in the CIS countries than in the benchmark group. Our results indicate that policy-makers in the CIS countries need to pay more attention to exchange rate movements than in many other emerging market countries.Key words: exchange rate pass-through, inflation, exchange rate regime, transition countries JEL: E31, E42, F31, F42
  • Bank of Finland (1972)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 29
    This is a report on the research project begun in 1970 to construct and simulate an econometric model for Finland. The goals of the project and the structure of the model as well as the reasoning behind the specification of the equations are discussed in this report. More detailed reports on the various blocks of the model in addition to the results of the first simulations and forecast experiments are to be published later in 1972 and in 1973.
  • Molander, Ahti (1969)
    Suomen Pankin taloustieteellisen tutkimuslaitoksen julkaisuja. B = Bank of Finland institute for economic research. B 31
    Preface 7 1. INTRODUCTION 9 2. BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY 12 2. 1. The Problem in Historical Perspective 12 2. 2. The Study of Inflation after the Second World War 15 3. THE PURPOSE AND BASIC MODEL OF THE PRESENT STUDY 19 3. 1. Choice of the Frame of Reference 19 3. 2. The Purpose of the Study 21 3. 3. The Basic Model 24 4. DERIVATION OF HYPOTHESES 30 4. 1. Determination of the Price Level 30 4. 2. Determination of the Wage Level 37 4. 3. The Demand for Labour 42 4. 4. The Supply of Labour 46 4. 5. Excess Demand in the Commodity Market 48 5. EMPIRICAL PARTIAL ANALYSIS 53 5. 1. General Remarks 53 5. 2. The Price Equation 54 5. 3. The Earnings Level Equation 59 5. 4. The Activity Equation 63 5. 5. A Note on Wage Drift 64 5. 6. The Negotiated Wage Rates Equation 65 5. 7. The Wage Drift Equation 66 5. 8. The Demand for Labour Equation 69 5. 9. The Supply of Labour Equation 70 5. 10. A Summary of the Partial Single-Eguation Analysis 72 6. SIMULTANEOUS ANALYSIS 73 6. 1. Combined Hypotheses and Simultaneous Estimation 73 6. 2. On the Dynamic Properties of the Inflationary Process 77 6. 3. Some Economic and Economic-Policy Implications of the Dynamic Analysis 82 7. CONCLUDING REMARKS 89 LIST OF SYMBOLS 91 APPENDIX I. Estimation Results, Tables 1-14 92 APPENDIX II. Diagrams of Estimates, Transformed Excess Demand Model I 102 APPENDIX III. Operational Counterparts of the Variables Used in the Empirical Analysis, Statistical Sources and Numerical Data 109 III. A. Operational Counterparts of the Variables Used in the Empirical Analysis and Statistical Sources 110 III. B. Numerical Data 113 APPENDIX IV. Correlation Matrix of Variables in Transformed Excess Demand And Capacity Models 116 REFERENCES 117
  • Vuorenmaa, Tommi A. (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2005
    This paper investigates the dependence of average stock market volatility on the timescale or on the time interval used to measure price changes, which dependence is often referred to as the scaling law.Scaling factor, on the other hand, refers to the elasticity of the volatility measure with respect to the timescale.This paper studies, in particular, whether the scaling factor differs from the one in a simple random walk model and whether it has remained stable over time.It also explores possible underlying reasons for the observed behaviour of volatility in terms of heterogeneity of stock market players and periodicity of intraday volatility.The data consist of volatility series of Nokia Oyj at the Helsinki Stock Exchange at five minute frequency over the period from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2002.The paper uses wavelet methods to decompose stock market volatility at different timescales.Wavelet methods are particularly well motivated in the present context due to their superior ability to describe local properties of times series.The results are, in general, consistent with multiscaling in Finnish stock markets.Furthermore, the scaling factor and the long-memory parameters of the volatility series are not constant over time, nor consistent with a random walk model.Interestingly, the evidence also suggests that, for a significant part, the behaviour of volatility is accounted for by an intraday volatility cycle referred to as the New York effect. Long-memory features emerge more clearly in the data over the period around the burst of the IT bubble and may, consequently, be an indication of irrational exuberance on the part of investors. Key words: long-memory, scaling, stock market, volatility, wavelets JEL classification numbers: C14, C22
  • Francis, Bill; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Lingxiang (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2014
    Published in Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Volume 46, Issue 2, February 2016: 217–260
    We study the impact of firms' abnormal business operations on their future crash risk in stock prices. Computed based on real earnings management (REM) models, firms' deviation in real operations from industry norms (DRO) is shown to be positively associated with their future crash risk. This association is incremental to that between discretionary accruals (DA) and crash risk found by prior studies. Moreover, after Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX) of 2002, DRO's predictive power for crash risk strengthens substantially, while DA's predictive power essentially dissipates. These results are consistent with the prior finding that managers shift from accrual earnings management (AEM) to REM after SOX. We further develop a suspect-firm approach to capture firms' use of DRO for REM purposes. This analysis shows that REM-firms experience a significant increase in crash risk in the following year. These findings suggest that the impact of DRO on crash risk is at least partially through REM.
  • Liikanen, Erkki (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2017
    The amount of underutilized domestic capacity is expected to gradually be taken up, and the global economy's generally favourable outlook will support growth in the euro area. Together these factors support expectations that the inflation rate will slowly return to the policy objective.
  • Paunio, J.J. (1964)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 3
    Is a strong labour organisation able to achieve a general rise in workers' wages, and in what way does such an increase affect prices and employment?The problem though old, is still unsolved.When put in this way the question is so general in nature that no unambiguous answer can be expected.The analysis, which will be entirely theoretical, will be carried out with the aid of a comparatively simple model, in which the assumptions are practically the same as those found in the traditional theory. The model is static and the analysis therefore comparative static.
  • Suomela, Samuli (1976)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 50 ; 2 ; February
  • Eerola, Essi (2016)
    Euro & talous 3/2016
    Asuntojen hinnat ovat viimeisen 10 vuoden aikana nousseet pääkaupunkiseudulla nopeammin kuin muissa suurissa suomalaisissa kaupungeissa. Hintaerojen kasvu voi johtua siitä, että pääkaupunkiseudusta on tullut entistä houkuttelevampi muihin suuriin kaupunkeihin verrattuna. Toisaalta samaan aikaan asuntolainakorkojen aleneminen on pienentänyt omistusasujan asumiskustannuksia. Myös tämä voi selittää, miksi asuntojen hinnat ovat nousseet siellä, missä asuntojen tarjonta ei ole kasvanut vastaavasti.
  • Kivistö, Jarkko (2012)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 3
    This article discusses the development of housing prices in Finland, with a special focus on the relationship between rents and housing purchase prices (rent-to-price ratio), which is analysed against a constructed benchmark of the user costs of investors or homeowners. A comparison of the rent-to-price ratio and time series of user costs indicates that the development of housing prices relative to rents has been broadly consistent with the fall in housing user costs. The key determinants of user cost dynamics are house price expectations and level of interest rates. The interest rate fall, in particular, has had a significant impact on the reduction in user costs and, hence, housing prices. However, the increase in housing prices relative to developments in household income has been fairly moderate.
  • Newby, Elisa; Railavo, Jukka; Ripatti, Antti (2011)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 3
    The purpose of economic forecasts is to support economic agents decision-making by providing a coherent picture of the present state of the economy and the outlook for the future. Since 2004, a key tool for preparing the Bank of Finland s forecast has been the Aino model.1 It is employed as a tool for integrating forecast information. The new version of the Aino model was introduced in the preparation of the March 2010 forecast. This article describes the features of the model and its use in the preparation of forecasts.
  • Gluschenko, Konstantin; Kulighina, Darya (2006)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2006
    Published in Journal of Economic Studies, Volume 37, Issue 4/2010
    Perfect integration eludes the real world, so we suggest a realistic benchmark standard for judging the extent of market integration in various economies.We estimate the degree of integration in the US product market, widely acknowledged to be the most integrated among geographically large economies, so as to provide a reference for measuring Russian market integration. Prices for 27 grocery items across 29 cities of the United States in the first quarter of 2000 are used as empirical data.The estimated degree of integration turns out to be very close to values obtained for Russia for 2000.Apparently, market integration in Russia has in recent years moved toward conditions found in advanced market economies.The roles of other factors that could potentially cause segmentation of the US market are also analyzed. JEL Classification: F14, F15, L81, R1 Keywords: market integration, price dispersion, law of one price, United States, Russia
  • Pesonen, Hanna (1998)
    This paper examines the driving forces in stock market fluctuations in Russia.We found no evidence of a causal relationship running from the emerging stock markets of Asia to Russia.Instead, US and Japanese share price movements seem to have strong implications for Russian share prices. Keywords: Russia, stock markets, causality testing
  • Kemppainen, Kari (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2005
    This paper considers effects of price regulation in retail payment systems by applying the model of telecommunications competition by Laffont-Rey-Tirole (1998).In our two-country model world there is one retail payment network located in each country and markets are segmented à la Hotelling.We show that the optimal price under price regulation is the weighted average of pre-regulation domestic and cross-border prices where the degree of home-bias in making payments serves as the weight.Furthermore, we find that the general welfare effects of price regulation are ambiguous: gross social welfare is higher under price discrimination than under price regulation in the special case where costs of access to banking services (transportation costs) are high.However, there also exist cases where prohibitively high transaction costs make price discrimination to reduce total welfare.Finally, if transportation costs are reduced sufficiently, segmentation of payment markets is eliminated.Markets then become fullyserved as in the original Laffont-Rey-Tirole model, suggesting that price discrimination would be beneficial for welfare. Key words: payment systems, price regulation, retail payments JEL classification numbers: D49, G28, L59
  • Égert, Balázs (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2004
    The ambition of this paper is to provide a thorough overview of equilibrium exchange rates in the acceding countries of Central and Eastern Europe.Therefore, theoretical models of equilibrium exchange rates are reviewed first and presented in a structured way.Subsequently, the existing body of the empirical literature aimed at investigating real exchange rate determination and possible misalignments is analyzed in a systematic manner.Finally, an attempt is made to sum up where we stand at the moment and what the major shortcomings of the approaches currently used in the literature are.
  • Stanisławska, Ewa; Paloviita, Maritta; Łyziak, Tomasz (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019
    Published in Economics Letters 2021 ; 206 ; September "Consumer inflation views : micro-level inconsistencies and macro-level measures"
    Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not match each other. Then we consider the impact of inconsistent survey responses on balance statistics and mean values of quantitative inflation expectations. We also analyze expectations’ formation estimating the sticky-information models. The results, based on Finnish and Polish data, suggest that even if the fraction of inconsistent survey responses is non-negligible, it matters neither for the aggregated figures of inflation views, nor for understanding of the formation of inflation expectations by consumers. We conclude that micro-level inconsistencies do not reduce the reliability of the current EC Consumer Survey dataset. Our results also indicate that inconsistent responses are not important drivers of the inflation overestimation bias displayed in the data.
  • Brunila, Anne; Suvanto, Antti (1998)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 72 ; 5 ; May