Monetary policy remains accommodative, net asset purchases about to end 3 Finland's economy booming 6 Forecast assumptions: International economy and external assumptions 32 Alternative scenario: Clouds over the global economy 36 First quarter of 2018 sees a surge in investments 39 Inflation now explained by different factors than during the recession 42 Unemployment rate in Finland close to structural level 47 Are weakly profitable firms suppressing economic growth? 50 The output gap has closed; Finland's economy at cyclical peak 63 Bank of Finland staff forecasts: an evaluation 72 Finland’s long-term growth prospects moderate 88 Forecast tables for 2018–2020 (june 2018) 101

The consequences of a banking crisis could be exceptionally severe in Finland’s concentrated banking system. Regulatory means must therefore be deployed to ensure the capital adequacy and liquidity of Finnish banks remain strong under all circumstances.

Following the steep contraction caused by the financial crisis, there have been substantial differences in economic performance across the different countries in the euro area. Some countries experienced a double recession from which recovery has been slow. In others, the economy picked up at a steady pace, and in some cases actually rather quickly. The stressed economies in the euro area have also recovered at varying speeds. Healthy economic structures seemed to have facilitated a speedier recovery. At the moment, the four largest euro area economies are growing at a rate above their potential output. Nevertheless, their long-term growth prospects differ from each other.

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2018–2020 (June 2018).

See forecast tables for the Finnish economy in 2019–2022 (Dec 2019).

COVID-19 will gradually be left behind in the course of 2021 due to the vaccines, and private consumption will generate growth of 2.2% in the Finnish economy. This will strengthen to 2.5% in 2022.

The Finnish economy will grow 3.5% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022.

This simulator seminar book includes twelve chapters dealing with various aspects of quantitative analysis of financial market infrastructures. The topics include, among others, systemic risks, participant behavior, and new monitoring methods of various payment systems. The methodologies vary from payment system simulations to other types of quantitative analysis based e.g. on artificial neural networks as well as GARCH models. These studies have been presented in the Bank of Finland’s simulator seminars during 2012–2014.