Browsing by Subject "input-output"

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  • Simola, Heli (2017)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2017
    Forthcoming in Asian Economic Papers
    We examine the international fragmentation of production chains in different countries using international input-output tables with a focus on China. We explore the development of main macro-level trends established in the previous literature with the most recent data available and compare Chinese production chains to those of other countries. We find that while international fragmentation of value chains has increased notably in other countries during 2000–2014, in China it has turned to decline in the latter part of the time period. The share of domestic value added has increased both in Chinese manufacturing and business service chains. The role of services has increased in the value chains of all countries, but even more pronouncedly in China mainly due to higher contribution from domestic services. Comparing globalization as opposed to regionalization in production chains shows that for most countries globalization has increased. A notable exception are other Asian countries than China, where value chains have instead become increasingly regional. Both these trends are largely due to the increased role of China in international production chains.
  • Simola, Heli (MIT Press, 2018)
    Asian Economic Papers 2 ; Summer 2018
    China has been a key participant in international fragmentation of production during the last decades. China has specialized mainly in labor-intensive manufacturing, but is striving to shift toward higher value-added production stages and production. At the same time, during recent decades, services have contributed increasing shares of valued-added to products produced through global production chains. For this reason we examine the evolving role of Chinese services in international production chains. Our results suggest that Chinese services account for an increasingly large share of production for the domestic market, and more recently have made increasing contributions to foreign production chains, which suggests that Chinese production is shifting to activities in production chains that are associated with higher value-added.
  • Simola, Heli (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2020
    In this note, we provide a brief description of the CO2 emissions embodied in global trade flows with an emphasis on the EU’s external trade with China. Our analysis suggests that imported emissions account for an increasing share of CO2 emissions associated with consumption within the EU. The CO2 emissions embodied in EU imports mainly originate from emerging economies, particularly China. We also discuss possible effects from the introduction an EU border adjustment mechanism that would impose tariffs on CO2 embodied in imports to the EU. Our results suggest that a potential border adjustment mechanism would likely affect EU trade with China, the largest source of CO2 imports to the EU. The effects would probably be felt more in imports of inputs for production chains located in the EU than in final products consumed in the EU.
  • Simola, Heli (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2019
    The slowing in China’s massive economy has wide implications. China plays an essential role in international production chains, so disturbances can spill over to other economies in the global production network. We evaluate the international transmission and impact of various China-specific shocks with an input-output framework applied to the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). We consider shocks to Chinese final demand at the aggregate level, bilateral import tariffs between the US and China and sector-specific shocks to Chinese final demand and supply. Our results suggest that aggregate level shocks, as well as certain sector-specific shocks originating in China, may have large impacts elsewhere. Transmission of shocks through the global production network, however, is mitigated by the relatively low import-intensity of Chinese production.
  • Simola, Heli (2015)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 9/2015
    As it gets increasingly difficult for investors to find opportunities for productive investment, China’s traditional investment-led growth model has lost steam. China now faces a rebalancing of domestic demand toward increased consumption and a paradigm of lower growth. Given that China is already the second-largest economy in the world, this shift will inevitably put adjustment pressures on the global economy. To illustrate these adjustment pressures, we consider global input-output tables. Our analysis suggests that China’s development poses important adjustment pressures for the global economy in both sectoral and regional terms. As this shift is expected to take time, however, other countries should have time themselves to deal with the shift. There are many risks that could thwart a smooth rebalancing, of course, and they should not be underestimated. With the help of South Korean and Japanese benchmarks, we also illustrate how the Chinese economy could experience quite different development scenarios, depending on the path chosen.
  • Simola, Heli (2022)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2022
    The EU, US and several other countries have responded with a wide range of new economic sanctions on Russia in response to the military attack on Ukraine. These sanctions include various restrictive measures on trade with Russia. In this brief, we examine the potential short-term effects of trade sanctions on Russian production with an input-output framework. We find that the trade sanctions can have substantial negative effects on Russian production when Russia is unable to find alternative markets for imports and exports. Keywords: Russia, trade, sanctions, input-output