Browsing by Subject "international trade"

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Now showing items 1-12 of 12
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2019
    Finland’s economic growth will slow in the forecast period to close to its potential rate. GDP will grow 1.6% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020. Thereafter, the pace of growth will ease to 1.3% in 2021.
  • Gulan, Adam (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    What are the economic causes and consequences of large trade disruptions? Are they able to unleash a full-scale economic crisis? In recent years, the news has been full of events such as the US-China trade war, Brexit and even the collapse of tourism services exports in southern Europe following the outbreak of COVID-19. Finland has its own unique and still recent experience from the early 1990s, when the Soviet Union withdrew from the clearing trade agreement in December 1990.
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2021)
    Journal of International Economics July
    Published in BoF DP 9/2019
    We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.
  • Herrala, Risto (2018)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    While the Caucasian and Central Asian (CCA) regions host ethnically and culturally diverse populations, and are difficult to traverse due to the challenging geography, the countries have a long history of political and economic integration. Much of the region was ruled by Timur in the 14th to 16th centuries and, after being separated by Persian invasion in Caucasus and Chinese invasion in Central Asia, the Russian invasion in the 1700’s brought the two again under a shared rule. Subsequently, the CCA became part of the Soviet Union, and the national borders of today were to a large extent drawn during that era as the borders of the Soviet national republics.
  • Simola, Heli (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 10/2021
    With the EU adopting more ambitious emission reduction targets this year, the European Commission in July published a proposal on measures for adjusting EU climate policy. Measures include a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that imposes a price on emissions embodied in products imported to the EU. In this policy note, we review the main lines of the CBAM proposal and discuss its potential economic effects on China, India, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine – the EU’s largest import sources for products subject to CBAM. We calculate illustrative estimates for the potential cost effectsof several specifications of the CBAM for these countries and compare them against earlier estimates. We also discuss the potential aggregate economic effects of the CBAM for these economies based on earlier literature. Despite considerable variation across countries and sectors, our analysis suggests that the aggregate economic effects of the CBAM would be limited for most exporting countries.
  • Simola, Heli (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2020
    In this note, we provide a brief description of the CO2 emissions embodied in global trade flows with an emphasis on the EU’s external trade with China. Our analysis suggests that imported emissions account for an increasing share of CO2 emissions associated with consumption within the EU. The CO2 emissions embodied in EU imports mainly originate from emerging economies, particularly China. We also discuss possible effects from the introduction an EU border adjustment mechanism that would impose tariffs on CO2 embodied in imports to the EU. Our results suggest that a potential border adjustment mechanism would likely affect EU trade with China, the largest source of CO2 imports to the EU. The effects would probably be felt more in imports of inputs for production chains located in the EU than in final products consumed in the EU.
  • Simola, Heli (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    The global economy and global trade flows have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. The trade collapse in the second quarter of 2020 was even more severe than during the trough of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009. However, taking into account the substantial fall in the GDP of most countries during the COVID-19 crisis, the relative trade contraction seems milder compared with the GFC. During the GFC, the combined volume of the GDP in OECD countries contracted by about 5%, and the combined volume of imports of goods and services by 17% from peak to trough (Figure 1). The corresponding figures for the COVID-19 crisis were -12% and -20%, respectively. Trade has also recovered rapidly since the trough in the second quarter of 2020. Trade was almost back at pre-crisis level by the end of the year.
  • Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2017
    The global market share of Finnish exports has been declining continuously ever since the financial crisis. While Finland’s export markets expanded by 17% in the years 2008–2015, Finnish exports contracted by 12% over the same period. The loss of market share partly reflects a phenomenon common to the advanced economies. Emerging economies have gained a stronger foothold in the global economy since the 1990s, which has eroded the advanced economies’ relative share of world trade.
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2018
    This note briefly reviews the history and current impacts of sanctions on Russian entities imposed by the EU, US and others, as well as Russia’s counter-sanctions imposed on Western countries. A large drop in price of oil in 2014 and 2015 coincided with these measures, complicating our efforts to tease out the specific economic effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. While it is clear that the decline in oil prices had a substantially larger impact on Russian GDP in 2014−2016 than sanctions, the sanctions regime proved effective in restricting access of Russian banks to capital. Looking specifically the impacts on EU countries, we note that the declines in trade with Russia and the EU’s reduced market share in Russia are to some extent continuations of long-term trends. Russia’s counter-sanctions have targeted, among other things, EU food exports to Russia. While the macroeconomic effects Russia’s counter-sanctions on the EU have been marginal, food sector in some EU countries has been affected. Russia’s counter-sanctions have also directly lowered consumption of affected goods in Russia.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2019
    Last year, the output volumes of goods and services grew more slowly than before. According to the most recent economic forecasts, global economic growth will dampen further this year. One of the reasons for this is the economic situation in China. China is the second largest economy in the world after the United States, and its rapid growth has, for a long time already, supported the dynamics of the entire global economy. Even China's economic growth has now slowed, and this has curtailed exports and imports across the world.
  • Simola, Heli (2021)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2021
    We examine the role of demand composition in explaining the trade collapse and recovery during the ongoing covid-19 crisis. We apply an import-intensity-adjusted measure of demand to examineimport trends in 40 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1Q95 to 4Q20. We focus on the crisis periods related to covid-19 and the global financial crisis in 2008–2009. As during the global financial crisis, we find that import-intensity-adjusted demand is a key factor contributing to trade developments during the covid-19 crisis. The analysis also reveals substantial differences between the current crisis and the global financial crisis. Trade decline during the global financial crisis was heavily investment-led. In the current crisis, consumption and import demand from the service sector have had much larger roles. The recovery of trade has been notably faster during the covid-19 crisis and led by exports as opposed to the much more important role played by domestic demand during the global financial crisis.
  • Gulan, Adam (2021)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Mitkä ovat kansainvälisen kaupan huomattavien häiriöiden taloudelliset syyt ja seuraukset? Voivatko ne aiheuttaa täysimittaisen talouskriisin? Viime vuosia ovat värittäneet uutistapahtumat kuten Yhdysvaltojen ja Kiinan kauppasota, Brexit sekä jopa turismiin liittyvien palvelujen viennin romahtaminen Etelä-Euroopassa koronapandemian puhkeamisen vuoksi. Suomella on oma ainutlaatuinen ja yhä varsin tuore kokemus 1990-luvun alusta, jolloin Neuvostoliitto vetäytyi clearingsopimuksesta joulukuussa 1990.