Browsing by Subject "julkinen talous"

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  • Korhonen, Iikka (1997)
    Russia's treasury bill market has taken off in recent years.The volume of outstanding stock has grown manyfold, so that the volume of trading on the secondary market is now enough to ensure liquidity.The yields of treasury bills, which once fluctuated wildly in response to trends in inflation and political uncertainty, have now settled to low enough levels where they may actually help stabilize Russian financial markets.If this, happens, we may soon expect to see increasing investments in production capacity. The T-bill market is mainly regulated by the Central Bank of Russia, which uses treasury bills as an instrument of monetary policy.Meanwhile, the government of the Federation of Russia has increasingly sought to use the T-bill market as a source of revenue.As the Central Bank of Russia will no longer extend direct credit to the government, inflation has naturally fallen.However, if there are to be further cuts in the yields of treasury bills, the government would probably have to curtail its borrowing.For this to happen the government must cut expenditures even further or improve its tax collection systems.
  • Marzo, Massimiliano; Romagnoli, Silvia; Zagaglia, Paolo (2008)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2008
    We study the term structure implications of the fiscal theory of price level determination. We introduce the intertemporal budget constraint of the government in a general equilibrium model in continuous time. Fiscal policy is set according to a simple rule whereby taxes react proportionally to real debt. We show how to solve for the prices of real and nominal zero coupon bonds. Keywords: bond pricing, fiscal policy, mathematical methods JEL classification numbers: D9, G12
  • Bank of Finland (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2016
    One of the key objectives of the Government Programme is to raise the employment rate to 72% by the end of the parliamentary term. This means increasing the current number of people in employment by just over 100,000 by the end of 2019. If near-term economic growth is to remain around 1%, i.e. as foreseen in the baseline forecast, achievement of the objective will be unlikely. On the basis of the alternative scenario, attainment of the employment objective in the Government Programme requires markedly faster economic growth than at present. GDP growth in 2017–2019 should average 2.5% annually, i.e. about 1.3 percentage points faster than the baseline suggests, in order for the objective to be attained.
  • Liikanen, Erkki (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2015
    The Bank of Finland has emphasised that the problems of the Finnish economy are not primarily cyclical, but largely of a longer-term, structural nature. In addition to the weakness of the global economy, activity has been dampened by structural changes in Finnish industry, a contraction in the working-age population, weakening cost-competitiveness and, recently, also the difficulties in the Russian economy. As general government deficits have grown and a rapid increase in the population share of elderly people is looming, the longer-term outlook for the public finances has deteriorated. The Bank of Finland has pointed out that the key to resolving the serious problems in the economy lies in structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and improved cost-competitiveness.
  • Vlasov, Sergey (2013)
    BOFIT Online 9/2013
    This study examines Russia's short- and long run fiscal sustainability. The study reveals the possible risks, if fiscal sustainability deteriorates on the general government budget level. By employing a special fiscal stress index, Russia's public finances are evaluated as sustainable in the short run. In the long run, the study analyzes advantages and limitations of the new fiscal rules, compares the new rules with the previous fiscal rules suspended during the financial crisis and discusses the possibilities for further development of the fiscal rules in Russia. The official long run socio-economic development forecast is employed for the estimates. The analysis suggests that comparing to 2012 government revenue will decrease by 7.5 p.p. of GDP by 2050, explained by the drop in oil-and-gas revenue by 8.7 p.p. of GDP. Government expenditure will decrease by 6.0 p.p. of GDP. The value of government net worth will become negative by 2050 but on the infinite projection horizon should stabilize on the safe level close to -15% of GDP. Keywords: fiscal sustainability, fiscal stress index, fiscal rules, general government budget, budget forecast
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Railavo, Jukka (2011)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 5
    The macroeconomic effects of population ageing will be considerable. Projections with a general equilibrium model highlight a structural shift in the economy and a pronounced fall in the standard of living in the wake of population ageing. Total output will decline not only in response to a fall in labour input but also due to a shift in the output structure towards service sectors. A substantial increase in the tax ratio will, in practice, make labour markets other than the public labour market wither away, while the ratio of private consumption to GDP will fall permanently.
  • Simachev, Yuri V.; Yakovlev, Andrei; Kuznetsov, Boris V.; Gorst, Michael Y.; Daniltsev, Aleksandr V.; Kuzyk, Michael N.; Smirnov, Sergey N. (2009)
    BOFIT Online 2009/6
    This paper presents the results of an analytical project on the methodology for assessing and monitoring anti-crisis measures taken by the government of the RF. The paper is based on an analysis of about 100 measures in support of Russia.s real economy that were initiated in October 2008 . March 2009. Within the scope of this analysis, we singled out the main beneficiaries by industry and the size of enterprise, and estimated the effects of the measures underway in the crisis phase and in the phase of a return to economic growth. The paper also gives an account of the major risks the Russian government will face in putting into practice the measures supporting the real economy, and reveals the key problems and inconsistencies of the anti-crisis program. Key words: Russia, anti-crisis measures, economic policy, state subsidies, fiscal policy.
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    Finland’s rapid economic growth in 2017 has notably improved the situation for the public finances. With the cuts in taxes related to the Competitiveness Pact, fiscal policy will ease in 2017 and 2018 and the structural deficit will deepen. Moreover, the projected acceleration of economic growth will not resolve the longer-term problems associated with Finland’s public finances. Population ageing will push up public expenditure, while the contraction in the working-age population will rein in economic growth and thus weaken the funding base of the public finances. Growth in age-related expenditure will generate a sustainability gap that is still estimated at around 3% of GDP.
  • Kokkinen, Arto (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2019
    Sound fiscal policy should be conducted keeping in mind the economy’s long-term challenges. Finland's population structure is becoming increasingly unfavourable on account of its declining working-age population and growing share of the elderly. This imbalance, together with rising age-related expenditure, will create a situation for the public finances where long-term general government expenditure is expected to exceed its revenue. In addition to the aforementioned sustainability gap, sound fiscal policy will prepare for future recessions and negative surprises.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    During the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal policy has been deployed to support households and businesses hit by the crisis. At the same time, fiscal stimulus has been stepped up to bolster economic recovery. After the crisis, once the economy has returned to a sustainable growth path, the upward trend in the public debt-to-GDP ratio must be halted and fiscal space rebuilt. Changing the course of the public finances will require broad consensus on long-term objectives, clear short-term interim targets, and concrete measures over the coming years. With the coinciding rise in age-related expenditure, rebalancing the public finances will be difficult.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2019
    Editorial: Finland’s economic transition still incomplete 3 Finland’s economic boom over 7 Alternative scenario: Recovery in global economy delayed 36 Assessment of public finances 2019 42 Investment weakened by uncertainty and the structure of the Finnish economy 53 Sustainability gap larger than previously projected 64 Forecast tables for 2019–2022 (December) 72
  • Bank of Finland (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    Finland’s economic growth is broadly based, exports are fuelling growth and at the same time domestic demand continues to be strong. According to the Bank of Finland forecast, Finland’s GDP will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018. Over the years 2019–2020 the economy will grow approximately 1.5% per annum. Inflation will gather pace but throughout the forecast period will be slower than elsewhere in the euro area.
  • Rasi, Chris-Marie (1992)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 66 ; 10 ; October
  • Rasi, Chris-Marie (1993)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 67 ; 10 ; October
  • Valvanne, Heikki (1956)
    Suomen Pankin taloustieteellisen tutkimuslaitoksen julkaisuja. B 18
    I. JOHDANTO 9 A. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus 9 B. Käsite "budjettierotus" 11 II. HUOMIOITA BUDJETTIPOLITIIKAN TEORIAN KEHITYKSESTÄ 14 A. Käyttöbudjettiteoria 16 B. Kerrointeoria 21 1. "Deficit spending" sekä "deficit without spending" 22 2. "Spending without deficit" 29 III. VALTION TULOJEN JA MENOJEN TULOTALOUDELLINEN ANALYYSI 34 A. Malli I: Suljettu talous, jossa valtiolla ori vain yhdenlaatuisia tuloja ja menoja 34 1. Algebrallinen analyysi 36 2. Kuvioanalyysi 39 3. Päätelmiä budjettierotuksesta 46 B. Malli II: Suljettu talous, jossa valtiolla on useammanlaatuisia tuloja ja menoja 51 1. Kuvioanalyysi 53 2. Päätelmiä budjettierotuksesta ja sen muutoksista 57 C. Malli III: Avoin talous, jossa valtiolla on useammanlaatuisia tuloja ja menoja 61 1. Algebrallinen analyysi 62 2. Kuvioanalyysi 67 D. Eräitä yleisiä näkökohtia valtion finanssipoliittisten tulojen ja menojen staattisesta tulotaloudellisesta analyysista 71 1. Finanssipoliittiset tulot ja menot 72 2. Mallien rakenteen ja käyttäytymisen todenmukaistaminen 74 E. Siirtyminen staattisesta analyysista dynaamiseen 81 1. Malli IV: Malli I dynamisoituna 81 2. Huomioita budjettierotuksesta 85 IV. VALTION TULOJEN JA MENOJEN RAHATALOUDELLINEN ANALYYSI 92 A. johdanto 92 B. Malli V: Suljettu puhdas shekkitalous 94 1. Valtiolla vain finanssipoliittisia tuloja ja menoja 94 2. Valtiolla mvös rahapoliittisia tuloja ja menoja 105 a. Valtio lainaa pankeilta 105 b. Valtio lainaa myös yleisöltä 110 C. Malli VI: Suljettu sekamuotoinen shekki- ja käteistalous 112 D. Malli VII: Avoin sekamuotoinen shekki- ja käteistalous 114 E. Rahapoliittisen budjetin käyttely 124 1. Suljettu puhdas shekkitalous 125 2. Avoin sekamuotoinen shekki- ja käteistalous 130 F. Päätelmiä 136 1. Kansantaloudellisen tasapainon ehdot 136 a. Yleisiä huomioita 136 b. Tasapainon ehdot pitemmällä tähtäimellä 140 2. Tasapainon saavuttaminen budjettipoliittisin keinoin 143 G. Valuuttapoliittiset tulot ja menot 149 V. BUDJETTIEROTUKSEN KÄYTTÖARVO VALTIONTALOUDEN VAIKUTUSTEN ANALYYSISSA 154 A. Käsitteestä "vaikutus" 154 B. Budjettierotuksen määräytyminen 156 C. Budjettierotuksen merkitys muuttujana 161 D. Erilaisten budjettierotusten tarkastelua 164 1. Käytännön budjettien erotukset 165 2. "Puhdistetut" budjettierotukset 167 E. Yrityksistä mitata valtiontalouden kokonaisvaikutuksia "konstruoitujen" budjettierotusten nojalla 175 VI. YHTEENVETO 181 KIRJALLISUUSLUETTELO 184 BUDGET BALANCE IN THE MACROECONOMIC THEORY OF BUDGETARY POLICY Contents 189 Summary 191 LIITE - APPENDIX Luettelo käytetyistä symboleista - List of symbols used
  • Kinnunen, Helvi (1999)
    Suomen Pankin kansantalousosaston työpapereita; Bank of Finland economics department working papers 1/99
    This paper examines the applicability of cash data as short-term indicators on the developments of the central government finances. Cash based revenue and expenditure items and reclassified to comply with the classification of annual SNA figures and the annual fiscal forecasts.The statistical properties of the data series are analysed using structural time series analysis.The models are used to forecast short-term developments of four revenue items and of five expenditure items.Also some tentative monthly estimates for the general government balance is presented.The analysis demonstrates the volatile character of monthly cash series; in most cases trend components are insignificant.On the other hand seasonal variation is statistically significant for most of the analysed items.Estimated time series models produce quite plausible forecasts for the short-term developments of the central government income and expenditure items. Keywords: cash based data, short-term forecasts
  • Nars, Kari; Saarinen, Pekka (1997)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 71 ; 2 ; February
  • Rasi, Chris-Marie (1992)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 66 ; 1 ; January
  • Rasi, Chris-Marie (1990)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 64 ; 12 ; December
  • Bank of Finland (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2015
    The effects of the Government’s economic policy programme are assessed separately in this alternative scenario, as the programme is not included in the baseline forecast. The consolidation measures, if carried through, will markedly strengthen the public finances. On account of the measures, growth in the general government debt to GDP ratio will come to a halt in 2019. The effects on economic growth essentially depend on whether cost-competitiveness can also be improved. Despite the consolidation measures, the general government debt ratio resumes growth over the longer term.