Browsing by Subject "korrelaatio"

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.34, No.3 (2006), pp. 518-537
    We review the literature on business-cycle correlation between the euro area and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention in recent years as new EU entrants prepare for participation in the monetary union.Our meta-analysis suggests several CEECs already have comparably high correlation with the euro area business cycle.We also find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients.While central bankers are more conservative in their estimates, we find no evidence of a geographical bias in the studies.JEL-Numbers: C42, E32, F15, F31.Key words: monetary union, optimum currency area, business cycles, meta- analysis.
  • Gächter, Simon; Riedl, Alesandra; Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2013
    We analyze business cycle convergence in the EU by focusing on the decoupling vs. convergence hypothesis for central, eastern and south eastern Europe (CESEE). In a nutshell, we find that business cycles in CESEE have decoupled considerably from the euro area (EA) during the financial crisis in terms of both cyclical dispersion (i.e. the deviation of output gaps) and cyclical correlation. The results are mainly driven by smaller countries, which can be explained by the fact that small economies seem to have larger cyclical swings as they are more dependent on external demand, which causes a decoupling in terms of higher output gap deviations from the EA cycle in times of economic crises. At the same time, this does not necessarily affect business cycle synchronization as measured by cyclical correlations, where the strength of the linear relationship of two cycles is measured. However, despite the recent declines in the co-movement, we generally observe high correlation levels of CESEE countries with the EA after their EU accession in 2004. Finally, we find a significant decoupling of trend growth rates between EA and CESEE until the onset of the financial crises. Since the beginning of the crisis, trend growth rates have declined both in CESEE and the EA with the trend growth differential decreasing significantly from about three to below two percentage points in 2011. JEL classification: E32, E52, F15, F33, F44; Keywords: Business cycles, EMU, CESEE, optimum currency areas
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka; Bátorová, Ivana (2008)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2008
    Published in CESifo Economic Studies, Vol. 59, 2/2013, 392-411
    We analyze the business cycles in China and in selected OECD countries between 1992 and 2006 using dynamic correlations. Nearly all OECD countries showpositive correlations of the very short-run developments which may correspond to intensive supplier linkages. However, dynamic correlations at the business cycle frequencies are negative. Countries facing a comparably longer history of intensive trading links tend to show slightly higher correlations of business cycles with China. Even though trade and financial flows do not really increase correlations of business cycles between China and OECD countries, they lower the degree of business cycle synchronization within the OECD area. JEL Classification: E32, F15, F41. Keywords: Business cycles, synchronization, trade, FDI, dynamic correlation.
  • Crowley, Patrick M. (2008)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2008
    Optimal currency area theory suggests that business cycle co-movement is a sufficient condition for monetary union, particularly if there are low levels of labour mobility between potential members of the monetary union. Previous studies of co-movement of business cycle variables found that there was a core of member states in the EU that could be grouped together as having similar business cycle co-movements, but these studies have always used Germany as the country against which to compare. This study updates and extends corresponding previous analyses. More specifically, it correlates the countries against both German and euro area macroeconomic aggregates and uses more recent techniques in cluster analysis, namely model-based clustering techniques. Keywords: business cycles, co-movement, optimal currency areas, model-based cluster analysis JEL classification numbers: F15, F31
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (2003)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2003
    Published in Comparative Economic Studies vol. 46 no 1 (2004), pp. 45-62
    We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between current countries in the euro area and EU accession candidates from 1993/1995 to 2002.Supply and demand shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation. Notably, the economic slowdown between 2000 and 2002 increased heterogeneity of business cycles between the euro area and acceding counties.We find that several acceding countries have a quite high correlation of underlying shocks with the euro area and conclude that continuing integration within the EU is likely to align the business cycles of these countries in a manner similar to the synchronisation of supply and demand shocks we document for the EU in the 1990s.JEL numbers E32, F42.Keywords: Optimum currency area, EU enlargement, structural VAR.