Browsing by Subject "kriisit"

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  • Honkapohja, Seppo (2009)
    Meneillään oleva rahoituskriisi on nyt kestänyt runsaan vuoden. Sodanjälkeisenä aikana nykyinen kriisi on kehittyneiden talouksien 19:s ja tämän vuosisadan ensimmäinen. Tuoreessa tutkimuksessaan Carmen Reinhard ja Kenneth Rogoff (2008) ovat jaotelleet tämänhetkistä Yhdysvaltain subprime-kriisiä edeltäneet 18 kriisiä viiteen suureen ja pienempiin kriiseihin. Viiteen suureen sisältyvät Norjan, Suomen ja Ruotsin 1990-luvun alkuun ajoittuneet kriisit. Norjan kriisi alkoi jo 1980-luvun lopulla, mutta jatkui 1990-luvulle.
  • Kiema, Ilkka; Jokivuolle, Esa (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2013
    The aim of the Internal Ratings Based Approach (IRBA) of Basel II was that capital suffices for unexpected losses with at least a 99.9% probability. However, because only a fraction of the required regulatory capital (a quarter to a half) had to be loss absorbing capital, the actual bank solvency probabilities may have been much lower, as the global financial crisis illustrates. Our estimates suggest that under Basel II IRBA the loss-absorbing capital of an average-quality portfolio bank suffices for unexpected losses with a 95%-99% probability. This translates into an expected bank failure rate as high as once in twenty years. Even if the bank s interest income is incorporated into our model, the expected failure rate is still substantial. We show that the expected failure rate increases with loan portfolio riskiness. Our calculations may be viewed as a measure of regulatory "self-delusion" included in Basel II capital requirements. Keywords: capital requirements, Internal Ratings Based Approach, Basel II,financial crisis.
  • Topi, Jukka (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2015
    Financial crises and other serious financial disruptions may be caused by several different types of risks. Macroprudential policy, designed to prevent such crises, needs a more diversified set of tools than are available in Finland at present. Although the Board of the Financial Supervisory Authority already has access to a number of macroprudential instruments, there is reason for the toolkit to be supplemented. There is a need for instruments to ensure capital adequacy in the Finnish banking sector and, if necessary, prevent the housing market overheating.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    The global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic intensified in March 2020. The health crisis and the lockdown measures necessary to contain the epidemic led to an exceptionally sudden and sharp decline in output worldwide in the first half of the year. In 2020 as a whole, the global economy is expected to contract by about 4–6%, and the euro area economy by about 8–10%. The euro area economy would seem to be diving a little deeper this year than the United States, but the pace of recovery is very uncertain for both. China saw the most difficult phase of the epidemic and thus the sharpest economic contraction in the first quarter of 2020. China’s recovery has been facilitated by the production and export of remote work equipment and protective equipment for the coronavirus disease. The pandemic shock has had a dampening effect on inflation. Unemployment is on the rise, but the euro area has avoided sudden mass unemployment through furloughs and government aid.
  • Lukkarila, Johanna (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 3/2003
    Monet maat ovat 1990-luvun alun jälkeen luopuneet kiinteän mutta ajoittain muutettavan valuuttakurssin järjestelmästä.Tässä työssä arvioidaan, miten Aasian tapahtumien jälkeen kehitellyt niin kutsutut kolmannen sukupolven valuuttakriisimallit selittävät Aasian kriisiä.Lisäksi teorioita ja Aasian tapahtumia verrataan Venäjän ja Turkin viimeisiin rahoituskriiseihin.Tarkastelu osoittaa, etteivät perinteiset teoriat ole menettäneet merkitystään kriisien selittäjinä.Uusia malleja ja mallien yhdistämistä kuitenkin tarvitaan, sillä viimeaikaisiin kriiseihin on yhä useammin liittynyt sekä pankki- että valuuttakriisien piirteitä.Avain-sanat: valuuttakriisit, pankkikriisit, kehittyvät markkinat, Aasia, Turkki, Venäjä JEL-luokittelu: F31, F32, F41
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    The worldwide economic crisis caused by the corona pandemic peaked in March 2020. In the early part of the year both output and consumption contracted suddenly and strongly; in other words, goods and services were both produced and consumed considerably less than before. The global economy is forecast to contract in the current year by around 4–6%, and the euro area economy by around 8–10%. Prior to the corona crisis, in 2019 the economy grew 2.9% globally, and 1.3% in the euro area. In the current year, the euro area economy would appear to be diving slightly deeper than the US economy, but the pace of recovery for both is very uncertain. Unemployment is growing, but in the euro area sudden mass unemployment has been avoided through the deployment of furloughs and various support measures.
  • Brüggemann, Axel; Linne, Thomas (2002)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2002
    The aim of paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolutin of of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects s in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate. Weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good precictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities. Keywords: F31, F47, financial crises, vulnerability indicator, Central and Eastern Europe
  • Simachev, Yuri V.; Yakovlev, Andrei; Kuznetsov, Boris V.; Gorst, Michael Y.; Daniltsev, Aleksandr V.; Kuzyk, Michael N.; Smirnov, Sergey N. (2009)
    BOFIT Online 2009/6
    This paper presents the results of an analytical project on the methodology for assessing and monitoring anti-crisis measures taken by the government of the RF. The paper is based on an analysis of about 100 measures in support of Russia.s real economy that were initiated in October 2008 . March 2009. Within the scope of this analysis, we singled out the main beneficiaries by industry and the size of enterprise, and estimated the effects of the measures underway in the crisis phase and in the phase of a return to economic growth. The paper also gives an account of the major risks the Russian government will face in putting into practice the measures supporting the real economy, and reveals the key problems and inconsistencies of the anti-crisis program. Key words: Russia, anti-crisis measures, economic policy, state subsidies, fiscal policy.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    During the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal policy has been deployed to support households and businesses hit by the crisis. At the same time, fiscal stimulus has been stepped up to bolster economic recovery. After the crisis, once the economy has returned to a sustainable growth path, the upward trend in the public debt-to-GDP ratio must be halted and fiscal space rebuilt. Changing the course of the public finances will require broad consensus on long-term objectives, clear short-term interim targets, and concrete measures over the coming years. With the coinciding rise in age-related expenditure, rebalancing the public finances will be difficult.
  • Freystätter, Hanna (2012)
    Euro & talous. Rahapolitiikka ja kansainvälinen talous 4
    Espanjan asuntojen hintakuplan puhkeamisen aiheuttama varallisuussokki on vaikutuksiltaan voimakas ja pitkäkestoinen. Kuplan puhkeamisen seurauksena ns. rahoitustekijät, kuten taseiden heikkeneminen ja rahoituskustannusten kasvu, vähentävät yritysten ja kotitalouksien mahdollisuuksia investoida ja kuluttaa. Tässä artikkelissa havainnollistetaan mallilaskelman avulla rahoitustekijöiden laskusuhdannetta voimistavaa vaikutusta Espanjassa. Maan talouden tervehdytysohjelma tulee perustaa talouskehityksen realistiseen arvioon, jossa rahoitustekijöiden merkittävä ja pitkäaikainen kasvua hidastava vaikutus tulee otetuksi huomioon. Talouspolitiikalla tulee pyrkiä estämään Espanjaa uhkaava tasetaantuma ja kriisin pysyvät vaikutukset talouden tuotantopotentiaaliin.
  • Taro, Lauri (1999)
    BOFIT Online 9/1999
    Russian August 1998 economic crisis effected Baltic countries more than was expected.Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have sunk into recession.Russia remained a key trading partner and a sizeable market for all three Baltic republics exporters also after the declaration of independence despite the sometimes tense political situation.Current year s figures show a heavy decline in Baltic s exports to Russia and also decline in the growth of these economies.Growth forecasts for each Baltic country have been revised down.Food and beverage as well as processing industries as a whole have suffered the most.The decline of purchasing power in Russia due to the rouble devaluation and the weaknesses in the Russian economy will restrain Baltic countries exports to Russia for years to come. Keywords: Baltic countries, foreign trade, Russia
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    Monetary policy is supporting economic recovery — but the outlook for employment remains weak 3 A fragile recovery from the pandemic crisis has begun 6 Corona crisis has increased the risk of stagnation in the euro area 46
  • Jokivuolle, Esa; Keppo, Jussi (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2014
    The global financial crisis of 2007-2008 has given rise to new regulatory initiatives to put restrictions on the size and term of bankers' pay. We revisit the question whether these regulations are justified, both theoretically and empirically. We model bonuses as a series of sequential call options on profits and show that they provide the higher risk-taking incentives the shorter is the time between the payment points. However, using data on CEO bonuses at the end of 2006 and our model, we find no robust relationship between risk-taking incentives and US banks' stock returns during the global financial crisis. The crisis returns are related negatively to leverage and positively to the market to book equity ratio. Our findings suggest that regulating leverage would be more effective than regulating bankers' compensation. Keywords: Banking, bonuses, regulation, compensation
  • Noth, Felix; Busch, Matias Ossandon (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2017
    This paper estimates the effect of a foreign funding shock to banks in Brazil after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Our robust results show that bank-specic shocks to Brazilian parent banks negatively affected lending by their individual branches and trigger real economic consequences in Brazilian municipalities: More affected regions face restrictions in aggregated credit and show weaker labor market performance in the aftermath which documents the transmission mechanism of the global financial crisis to local labor markets in emerging countries. The results represent relevant information for regulators concerned with the real effects of cross-border liquidity shocks.
  • Koskinen, Kimmo; Putkuri, Hanna (2013)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 1
    The fatal link between banks and their home countries has become increasingly closer, particularly in the crisis countries in the euro area. The amount of domestic sovereign debt securities held by the crisis countries' banks has increased significantly, as the role of banks in funding their home countries' debt has been emphasised.
  • Schauman, Heidi; Vanhala, Juuso (2011)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 2/2011
    Kansainvälinen finanssikriisi on johtanut syvimpään globaaliin taantumaan sitten 1930-luvun suuren laman. Vaikka taloudet ovat elpymässä, finanssikriisin kielteiset vaikutukset näkyvät vielä pitkään työmarkkinoilla. On odotettavissa, että tässä kriisissä toistuu monissa aiemmissa kriiseissä havaittuja piirteitä. Työllisyyden ja osallistumisasteen toipuminen muodostunee huomattavasti tuotannon toipumista hitaammaksi. Pitkäaikaistyöttömien osuus työttömistä joka on vasta hiljattain lähtenyt nousuun jatkanee kasvuaan, vaikka taantuman pohja on ohitettu. Lisäksi on mahdollista, että taantuman jälkeinen työpaikkojen kasvu ei tapahdu samoilla sektoreilla, joilla työpaikkoja on menetetty. Tässä selvityksessä tarkastellaan finanssikriisin vaikutuksia Suomen työmarkkinoille, ja verrataan Suomen kokemuksia mm. Yhdysvaltoihin ja Saksaan. Tarkastelun kohteena ovat etenkin työmarkkinoiden kohtaanto, rakenteelliset muutokset ja politiikkatoimien vaikutukset työmarkkinoiden sopeutumiskanaviin.
  • Freystätter, Hanna (2012)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Monetary policy and the global economy 4
    The wealth shock caused when the housing price bubble burst in Spain will have strong, long-lasting effects. As a consequence of the bursting of the bubble, financial factors (such as weaker balance sheets and higher costs of funding) weigh on the investment and consumption potential of companies and households. In this article, we use a model simulation to illustrate the procyclical effect of financial factors on the economic downswing in Spain. The economic programme of the country must be based on a realistic assessment of economic development that captures the significant and long-term negative growth contribution of financial factors. Economic policy measures should be adopted to avert the threat of balance sheet recession facing Spain and avoid any permanent effects of the crisis on the output potential of the economy.
  • Gächter, Simon; Riedl, Alesandra; Ritzberger-Grünwald, Doris (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2013
    We analyze business cycle convergence in the EU by focusing on the decoupling vs. convergence hypothesis for central, eastern and south eastern Europe (CESEE). In a nutshell, we find that business cycles in CESEE have decoupled considerably from the euro area (EA) during the financial crisis in terms of both cyclical dispersion (i.e. the deviation of output gaps) and cyclical correlation. The results are mainly driven by smaller countries, which can be explained by the fact that small economies seem to have larger cyclical swings as they are more dependent on external demand, which causes a decoupling in terms of higher output gap deviations from the EA cycle in times of economic crises. At the same time, this does not necessarily affect business cycle synchronization as measured by cyclical correlations, where the strength of the linear relationship of two cycles is measured. However, despite the recent declines in the co-movement, we generally observe high correlation levels of CESEE countries with the EA after their EU accession in 2004. Finally, we find a significant decoupling of trend growth rates between EA and CESEE until the onset of the financial crises. Since the beginning of the crisis, trend growth rates have declined both in CESEE and the EA with the trend growth differential decreasing significantly from about three to below two percentage points in 2011. JEL classification: E32, E52, F15, F33, F44; Keywords: Business cycles, EMU, CESEE, optimum currency areas
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2021)
    Journal of International Economics July
    Published in BoF DP 9/2019
    We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.
  • Pikkarainen, Pentti (2010)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2010
    The paper concentrates on illustrating and assessing central banks liquidity operations during the crisis that started in August 2007. In addition to the ECB, the central banks of Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Canada and the United States are analyzed. During the crisis the liquidity operations of central banks have converged. In many cases, central bank balance sheets have undergone extremely strong growth. The actions by central banks raise a number of questions concerning exit from the measures taken, the impact of the measures, central banks risks and their governance structure