Browsing by Subject "lainat (rahasumma)"

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  • Nyholm, Juho; Silvo, Aino (2022)
    BoF Economics Review 4/2022
    We propose a new Bayesian VAR model for forecasting household loan stocks in Finland. The model is designed to work as a satellite model of a larger DSGE model for the Finnish economy, the Aino 2.0 model. The forecasts produced with the BVAR model can be conditioned on projections of several macro variables obtained from the Aino 2.0 model. We study several specifications for the set of variables and lags included in the BVAR, and evaluate their out-of-sample forecast accuracy with root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSFEs). We then select a preferred specification that performs best in predicting the loan stocks over forecast horizons ranging from one to twelve quarters ahead. The model adds to the existing toolkit of forecast models currently in use at the Bank of Finland and improves our understanding of household debt trends in Finland.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2021
    The crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic swept the Finnish economy into a sudden recession in 2020, but the progress with vaccinations means we can already see light at the end of the tunnel. The negative economic impacts of the crisis have so far been less than feared, and the most recent economic forecasts are encouraging.
  • Bank of Finland (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2019
    Finnish households are carrying a worryingly large amount of debt. Housing loans and housing company loans have become more common and larger, and their repayment periods have become longer. In addition, the supply of consumer credit has become broader and more varied.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2021
    New instruments are needed to rein in household debt 3 Debt-to-income cap and maturity limits necessary to curb financial stability risks 6 Nordic housing market showing strength, but not without risks 25 New mortgage-borrowers have an increasing amount of debt relative to income 36 A debt-to-income cap would dampen economic fluctuations 48 Imposing a loan-to-value limit on housing company loans would only affect a share of construction finance 53 Separating buy-to-let mortgages from other housing loans provides a clearer look into household debt 61 Moderate growth in Finnish companies’ non-performing loans 65 New stress-testing framework to assess the capital adequacy of Finnish banks 75 Pandemic continues to cast a shadow over the outlook for European banks’ credit risks 81
  • Bank of Finland (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2022
    Resilience of borrowers, banks and payment systems must be strengthened 3 Weakening economy and tightening financing conditions pose a challenge to financial stability 6 New housing loans keep growing in size – increased share of longer than-usual loans 33 From crisis to crisis – companies are once again facing a challenging operating environment 50 Nordic housing market risks can affect Finland’s economy 61 Financial sector also facing new kinds of threats 72 Large structural risks require banks to hold buffers for a rainy day 75 Macroprudential toolkit should be replenished in Finland and Europe 83 Instruments to prevent risk of indebtedness becoming more common in Europe 90 Banks’ macroprudential buffer requirements lighter in Finland than in its peers 94
  • Li, Xiaoming; Liu, Zheng; Peng, Yuchao; Xu, Zhiwei (2021)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2021
    We study the impact of China’s 2013 implementation of Basel III on bank risk-taking and its responses to monetary policy shocks using confidential loan-level data from a large Chinese bank. Guided by theory, we use a difference-in-difference identification, exploiting cross-sectional differences in lending behaviors between high-risk and low-risk bank branches before and after the new regulations. We find that, through a risk-weighting channel, changes in regulations significantly reduced bank risk-taking, both on average and conditional on monetary policy easing. However, banks reduce risk-taking by increasing lending to ostensibly low-risk state-owned enterprises (SOEs) under government guarantees, despite their low average productivity.
  • Helenius, Jyri (2021)
    Finanssivalvonta. Blogi 10/2021
    Baselin pankkivalvontakomitean suosituksilla varmistetaan, että pankkisääntely säilyy riittävän yhdenmukaisena globaaleilla pankkimarkkinoilla. Jos EU:ssa ei noudateta Baselin komiteassa yhdessä sovittuja suosituksia, on vaarana, että muissakin maissa (esim. USA:ssa tai Isossa-Britanniassa) livetään suositusten noudattamisesta. Tällöin vaarana on, että ajaudutaan kilpailuun, jossa eri maat löysentävät pankkien vakavaraisuussääntöjä antaakseen (lyhyen aikavälin) kilpailuetua omille pankeilleen. Finanssikriisien taloudelliset ja inhimilliset kustannukset ovat niin suuria, että tällaiseen kierteeseen emme saa joutua.
  • Voutilainen, Ville (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2019
    Finnish household debt relative to income has grown significantly since the turn of the millennium. In future, excessive borrowing could be stemmed by, for example, restricting the amount of credit available to households relative to their levels of income
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Laakkonen, Helinä (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 5/2021
    China became the world’s largest lender to emerging and developing economies over the past decade. At the same time, concerns on the debt sustainability of many of these countries have grown. Some countries have found themselves struggling to repay their loans and China has had to renegotiate debt restructurings bilaterally. As covid-19 pandemic hit many of the borrowers hard in 2020, China committed with all other G20 countries to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) to temporarily suspend official bilateral debt payment of 73 beneficiary countries. While China’s overseas lending remain opaque, there is little evidence that China intentionally practices “debt-trap diplomacy.”
  • Alakiuttu, Antti (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    A larger share of household and corporate finance than previously now comes from outside the banking sector. As a result of digitalisation, the number of different companies providing consumer credit and corporate finance services in Finland has increased. This has aroused concerns about increasing indebtedness among households and companies, although the number of these lenders has decreased following the interest rate cap imposed on consumer credit in September 2019.
  • Kauko, Karlo; Savolainen, Eero; Tuomikoski, Olli; Vauhkonen, Jukka (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2019
    The Finnish corporate loan stock has grown in recent years. Corporate loans are riskier than household loans, yet the default rates on corporate lending have almost returned to the levels prevailing before the financial crisis.
  • Deryugina, Elena; Kovalenko, Olga; Pantina, Irina; Ponomarenko, Alexey (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2015
    ​This article presents three alternative models for decomposing loan developments into components associated with changes in loan demand and supply fundamentals. Two models are based on macro data (error correction model and structural vector autoregression with sign restrictions) and one is based on bank-specific Bank Lending Survey results. We conclude that although loan growth in Russia converges to a long-run equilibrium determined by macroeconomic (demand) factors the convergence is likely to be driven by bank-side (supply) shocks. We identify large and unexplained supply shocks in loan fluctuations during the crisis of 2008–2009, signifying an impairment of credit markets. We also find contractionary shocks unrelated to demand fundamentals or balance sheet structures in 2013, although in general loan developments in 2013 and the first half of 2014 were not at all extraordinary.
  • Nykänen, Marja (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2021
    Household behaviour and business activity continue to be very much influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The prospects for the economic environment returning to a state of normalcy are improving, however, as vaccine rollouts gather pace in Finland and abroad. The Finnish economy has held up better than feared in the worst-case scenarios envisaged one year ago, and the financial system has continued to function well. The economy's better-than-expected performance can be attributed especially to the policy measures put in place domestically and in the euro area, and to the ability of households and businesses to adjust to the emergency conditions.
  • Nykänen, Marja (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2019
    Finland's financial system is structurally vulnerable due to the country's high levels of household debt and proportionately large banking system. Indebted households respond to declining economic conditions and increased uncertainty by reducing their levels of consumption and investment. Companies see their business conditions deteriorate, and the risks to the financial system are amplified.
  • Léon, Florian; Weill, Laurent (2022)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2022
    To analyze whether the occurrence of elections affects access to credit for firms, we perform an investigation using firm-level data covering 44 developed and developing countries. The results show that elections impair access to credit. Specifically, firms are more credit-constrained in election years and pre-election years as elections exacerbate political uncertainty. While lower credit demand is a tangible negative effect of elections, their occurrece per se does not seem to affect credit supply. We further establish that the design of political and financial systems affects how elections influence access to credit.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Tarashev, Nikola (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
    Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a framework for forecasting these losses jointly. In an application to quarterly US data on loan charge-offs from 1985 to 2019, we find that financial-cycle indicators – notably, the debt service ratio and credit-to-GDP gap – deliver reliable real-time forecasts, signalling turning points up to three years in advance. Provisions and capital that reflect such forecasts would help reduce the procyclicality of banks’ loss-absorbing resources.
  • Hoffman, Mathias; Stewen, Iryna; Stiefel, Michael (2022)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2022
    Over 2010-2016, municipal debt in Germany crowded out private investment worth 1 percent of GDP. Forced to lend to municipalities by their statutes, local public banks compensated for declining municipal-debt yields by charging higher rates to firms in Germany’s locally segmented credit markets. The ensuing crowding-out was made worse by increased municipal borrowing when expensive fiscal commitments were shifted from federal and state to the municipal levels following the introduction of the debt brake. Our results identify new channels through which low interest rates adversely affect real outcomes and locally segmented credit markets can amplify contractionary effects from fiscal austerity.
  • Tölö, Eero; Virén, Matti (2021)
    European Economic Review July
    The severe recessions following the global financial crisis of 2007–2008 left numerous European banks with acutely distressed loan books. In the subsequent recovery, bank lending in Europe has fallen dramatically behind peer advanced economies. This paper focuses on how the post-crisis accumulation of non-performing loans (NPLs) has hindered bank lending in Europe. In assessing the effect of NPLs, we attempt to control for demand factors, simultaneity bias, and the alternative channels through which NPLs affect lending growth. Our primary data source, proprietary quarterly bank-level data from the European Banking Authority (EBA) for 2014–2019, provides detailed information on NPLs for around 200 banks in 30 countries in the European Economic Area. The weak lending growth during the observation period implicates a transmission channel in which NPLs decrease bank profits, increase bank funding costs, and erode bank capital. We find that the strength of the credit squeeze depends on the level of NPLs in the sample. After controlling for this, our estimate of the semi-elasticity of lending growth with respect to NPLs closely matches earlier studies. Given the vital role of bank lending in funding European investment, the possible depressing effect on economic growth from a large NPL burden represents an important policy consideration.
  • de Neumann, Niina (2021)
    Finanssivalvonta. Blogi 3/2021
    Lainan myöntämishetkellä on tarve saada kattava kuva siitä, miten ilmasto- ja ympäristöriskit vaikuttavat lainanottajan maksukyvyttömyysriskiin. Sijaitseeko yritys esimerkiksi alueella, joka voi tulvia? Asiakas voi olla altis fyysisille riskeille. Entä jos yrityksen on piakkoin tehtävä merkittäviä investointeja, jotta se olisi energiatehokkaampi? Asiakas on silloin altis siirtymäriskeille. Lainan myöntämishetkellä pohdittavaa on paljon. Pankki voi käydä vuoropuhelua lainanottajan kanssa siitä, miten asiakas on huomioinut ilmasto- ja ympäristöriskit nyt ja miten se tulee vastaamaan haasteisiin tulevaisuudessa.
  • Koskinen, Kimmo; Voutilainen, Ville (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2021
    Housing company loans are contributing to household indebtedness and are changing the composition of household debt. Housing company loans can also incentivise residential property investors to become highly leveraged. Imposing a loan-to-value limit of 60% on housing company loans would mitigate the issues associated with large housing company loans and make it easier to assess their risks. The impact of a loan-to-value limit would largely fall on owner-occupied housing output. Housing company loans are generally not used to finance the construction of rental housing. Imposing a loan-to-value limit on housing company loans might increase the number of pre-sales required by small construction companies or raise their borrowing costs.