Browsing by Subject "luottamus"

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  • Libman, Alexander; Vollan, Björn (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2015
    Anti-Western conspiracies are frequently used by Governments to strengthen their power. We investigate the impact of conspiracy thinking on expectations of collusion among individuals in Russia and China. For this purpose, we conduct a novel laboratory experiment to measure expectations of collusion and several survey items related to conspiracy thinking. Our survey results indicate that anti-Western conspiracy thinking is widespread in both countries and correlates with distrust. We find a significant effect of anti-Western conspiracy thinking in China: Anti-Western conspiracy thinking correlates with lower expectations of collusion. We explain this result by stronger ingroup feeling emanating from the anti-Western sentiment. Our paper provides a first step in analyzing the economic implications of conspiracy thinking for society.
  • Lindblad, Annika; Silvo, Aino (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    Consumer confidence indicators are widely used in monitoring the economic cycle, as they are thought to contain forward-looking information on the path of the economy. Changes in consumer confidence have historically preceded shifts in the economic cycle by about six months. The value of forward-looking indicators is highlighted especially during exceptional inflection points in the economy, such as during the financial crisis or the currently prevailing coronavirus crisis, as these indicators provide readily available information about the future path of the economy. The rebound in consumer confidence and the recovery of the economy appear to be intimately connected.
  • Manninen, Otso (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2015
    If loss in interbank confidence regarding banking sector balance sheets intensified the crisis in 2008, banks’ faltering confidence in other banks’ systems could cause the next crisis, experts warn. Confidence is vital to the financial system, and as account balances are situated in cyberspace, confidence in the numbers on the screen is of the utmost importance. From a practical point of view it is irrelevant whether a loss of confidence is due to the realisation of financial market risks or cyber risks.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Kerola, Eeva; Weill, Laurent (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2019
    Online First Journal of Financial Services Research https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10693-021-00365-w
    This paper investigates how past experience with banking crises influences an individual’s trust in banks. We combine data on banking crises for the period 1970–2014 with individual data on trust in banks for 52 countries. We find that experiencing a banking crisis diminishes a person’s trust in banks, and that high exposure to banking crises is negatively related to trust in banks. An individual’s age at the time of the crisis is important, and significant for individuals between 41 and 60 years of age at the time of the banking crisis. Both severe and mild crises diminish trust in banks, but a severe banking crisis hits also young people’s trust, while less severe banking crises mainly degrade trust of more mature people. The detrimental effect for trust in banks seems to be connected specifically to systemic banking crises. Other types of financial crises incur a less significant effect. Overall, our results indicate that banking crises generate previously unrecognized costs for the economy in the form of a lasting reduction of trust in banks.
  • Ambrocio, Gene (2020)
    BoF Economics Review 6/2020
    Confidence dropped universally across countries and sectors during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Latest survey data suggest that confidence is on track for a v-shaped recovery. The swift implementation of stringent containment measures as well as economic stimulus policy measures, along with several other country characteristics, correlate well with both the drop and recovery of confidence across countries.
  • Chernykh, Lucy; Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2019
    We use a novel, household opinions-based measure – Public Confidence in a Bank – to explore the role of bank-level and system-wide determinants of customers’ trust in banks. Our study covers a panel of approximately 260 large Russian commercial banks publicly monitored during 2010–2017. We find that public confidence in a bank is highly sensitive to the industry-level financial stability indicators, but less sensitive to bank-level risk characteristics. This result reveals an important role of overall banking sector stability in determining public perception of the safety and soundness of individual banks.
  • Suomen Pankki (2018)
    Euro & talous. Analyysi
    Suomen talouden suhdannetilanne on säilynyt vahvana kuluvan vuoden aikana. Kasvu on jatkunut vuoden toisella neljänneksellä. Työllisyys on kehittynyt toistaiseksi hyvin, mutta ammattitaitoisen työvoiman saanti on nousemassa kasvun esteeksi.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Hoi, Chun-Keung (Stan); Wu, Qiang; Zhang, Hao (2020)
    Journal of Corporate Finance June
    We find that social capital in U.S. counties, as captured by strength of social norms and density of social networks, is positively associated with innovation of firms headquartered in the county, as captured by patents and citations. This relation is robust in fixed-effect regressions, instrumental variable regressions with a Bartik instrument, propensity score matching regressions, and a difference-in-differences design that isolates the effects of over time variations in social capital due to corporate headquarter relocations. Strength of social norms plays a more dominant role than density of social networks in producing these empirical regularities. Cross-sectional evidence indicates the prominence of the contracting channel through which social capital relates to innovation. Additionally, we find that social capital is also positively associated with trademarks and effectiveness of corporate R&D expenditures.
  • Lindblad, Annika; Silvo, Aino (2020)
    Euro & talous 3/2020
    Kuluttajien luottamusindikaattoria käytetään yleisesti talouden suhdanteiden seurannassa, sillä sen ajatellaan sisältävän tietoa siitä, mihin suuntaan talous seuraavaksi kehittyy. Kuluttajien luottamuksen kehitys onkin historiallisesti ollut noin puoli vuotta yleisen suhdanteen kehitystä edellä. Poikkeuksellisissa suhdannekäänteissä, kuten finanssikriisissä tai nyt käsillä olevassa koronakriisissä, tällaisten ennakoivien indikaattoreiden arvo korostuu, sillä ne tarjoavat nopeasti saatavilla olevaa tietoa talouden suunnasta. Kuluttajien luottamuksen palautuminen ja talouden elpyminen näyttävät olevan kiinteässä yhteydessä toisiinsa.
  • Karjanlahti, Kristiina; Koskinen, Kimmo (2012)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 2
    Since the latter part of 2011, foreign capital has been flowing out of Spain and Italy, which has hampered banks funding, especially in Spain. In Italy, the flight of capital eased already in spring 2012. The data for September suggest that the situation has now improved in Spain, too.
  • Karjanlahti, Kristiina; Koskinen, Kimmo (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti 2
    Vuoden 2011 lopun jälkeen Espanjasta ja Italiasta on lähtenyt ulkomaista pääomaa, mikä on vaikeuttanut pankkien varainhankintaa etenkin Espanjassa. Italiassa pääomapako tasoittui jo kevään 2012 aikana. Syyskuun tiedot viittaavat siihen, että myös Espanjan tilanne on kohentunut.
  • Suomen Pankki (2019)
    Euro & talous. Analyysi
    Suomen talouskasvu on jatkunut suhteellisen vireänä viime kuukausina, vaikka kansainvälisen talouden epävarmuudet varjostavat viennin kasvua ja asuntorakentaminen hiljenee. Teollisuuden indikaattorit ovat kuitenkin pysyneet myönteisinä ja työllisyys otti askeleen ylemmäs syyskuussa. Kuluttajien ja teollisuuden luottamus talouteen kuitenkin vajoaa. Lyhyen aikavälin mallien ja julkaistun tilastoaineiston perusteella kuluvan vuoden kasvu olisi 1,4 %, jääden jälkeen kesäkuun ennusteen 1,6 prosentin kasvusta tälle vuodelle.
  • Suomen Pankki (2020)
    Euro & talous. Analyysi
    Koronapandemia hallitsee globaalia talousnäkymää ja tautitapaukset ovat maailmanlaajuisesti voimakkaassa kasvussa. Suomen tärkeimpien kauppakumppanien taloudet kärsivät merkittävästi pandemiasta ja myös Suomen talous supistuu vuonna 2020 selvästi. Viimeaikaiset tilastojulkistukset sekä lyhyen aikavälin ennustemallien tulemat tukevat Suomen Pankin kesäkuun ennusteen näkemystä siitä, että Suomen bruttokansantuote laskee kuluvana vuonna noin 7 %. Ennusteeseen liittyy kuitenkin merkittävää epävarmuutta.
  • Suomen Pankki (2020)
    Euro & talous. Analyysi
    Suomen talous kasvoi vahvasti vuoden 2019 kolmella ensimmäisellä neljänneksellä, mutta lyhyen aikavälin mallien perusteella kasvu näyttää lähes pysähtyneen vuoden viimeisellä neljänneksellä. Vuosi 2020 alkaa maltillisen kasvun merkeissä. Työllisyysasteen kasvu näyttää edelleen hidastuvan, mistä kertovat mm. alentuneet työllisyysodotukset. Työllisyysodotukset ovat laskeneet varsinkin teollisuudessa. Myös teollisuuden luottamusindeksi on heikentynyt selvästi.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; He, Qing; Lu, Haitian (2020)
    Journal of International Money and Finance November
    This article traces the extant literature on the impact of social capital on economic attitudes and outcomes. Special attention is paid to clarify conceptual ambiguities, measurement techniques, channels of influence, and identification strategies. Insights derived from the literature are then used to analyze the marketplace lending industry in China, where the size of the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market is larger than that of the rest of the world combined. Ironically, approximately two-thirds of these online P2P lending platforms have failed. Empirical evidence from the monthly operating data of 735 lending platforms and transaction level data from one prominent platform (Renrendai) shows that platforms in provinces with high social capital have low risk of failure, and borrowers in provinces with high social capital can borrow at low interest rate and are less likely to default. We also provide observations to guide future economic research on social capital.
  • Aksoy, Cevat Giray; Eichengreen, Barry; Saka, Orkun (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2020
    What will be political legacy of the Coronavirus pandemic? We find that epidemic exposure in an individual’s “impressionable years” (ages 18 to 25) has a persistent negative effect on confidence in political institutions and leaders. We find similar negative effects on confidence in public health systems, suggesting that the loss of confidence in political leadership and institutions is associated with healthcare-related policies at the time of the epidemic. In line with this argument, our results are mostly driven by individuals who experienced epidemics under weak governments with less capacity to act against the epidemic, disappointing their citizens. We provide evidence of this mechanism by showing that weak governments took longer to introduce policy interventions in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. These results imply that the Coronavirus may leave behind a long-lasting political scar on the current young generation (“Generation Z”).
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Hasan, Iftekhar; Weill, Laurent (2016)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2016
    Published in Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 157, January, 2019, 452-476
    ​Trust in banks is considered essential for an effective financial system, yet little is known about what determines trust in banks. Only a handful of single-country studies discuss the topic, so this paper aims to fill the gap by providing a cross-country analysis on the level and determinants of trust in banks. Using World Values Survey data covering 52 countries during the period 2010–2014, we observe large cross-country differences in trust in banks and confirm the influence of several sociodemographic indicators. Our main findings include: women tend to trust banks more than men; trust in banks tends to increase with income, but decrease with age and education; access to television enhances trust, while internet access erodes trust; and religious, political, and economic values may affect trust in banks. Notably, religious individuals tend to put greater trust in banks, but differences are observed across denominations. The holding of pro-market economic views is also associated with greater trust in banks.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Hasan, Iftekhar; Weill, Laurent (2019)
    Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization January
    Published in BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2016.
    Trust in banks is considered essential for an effective financial system, yet little is known about what determines trust in banks. Only a handful of single-country studies discuss the topic, so this paper aims to fill the gap by providing a cross-country analysis on the level and determinants of trust in banks. Using World Values Survey data covering 52 countries during the period 2010–2014, we observe large cross-country differences in trust in banks and confirm the influence of several sociodemographic indicators. Our main findings include: women tend to trust banks more than men; trust in banks tends to increase with income, but decrease with age and education; and access to television enhances trust, while internet access erodes trust. Additionally, religious, political, and economic values affect trust in banks. Notably, religious individuals tend to put greater trust in banks, but differences are observed across denominations. The holding of pro-market economic views is also associated with greater trust in banks.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Weill, Laurent (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2017
    Published in Pacific Economic Review, 23, 2, 2018, 131–149
    Trust in banks is essential to financial system effectiveness. This study examines the determinants of trust in banks in China. Using the most recent wave of the World Values Survey, which included information on trust in banks from the survey in China in 2012, we perform ordered logit estimations to investigate the potential influence of a large set of individual and provincial indicators on trust in banks. We observe the influence of certain sociodemographic indicators. Membership in the Communist Party and living in a rural area are negatively associated with trust in banks. Age and satisfaction with financial situation contribute to higher trust in banks, while being married and having a higher level of education tend to lower trust in banks. Access to information regardless of the type of media disseminating the information newspapers, television, internet) seem to have no impact on trust in banks. Economic values influence trust in banks. In particular, individuals who favor inequality as an incentive for individual effort or support an expanded government ownership role in the economy tend to trust banks more.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Weill, Laurent (2018)
    Pacific Economic Review 2 ; May ; 2018
    Published in BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2017.
    Trust in banks is essential to financial system effectiveness. The present study examines the determinants of trust in banks in China. Using the most recent wave of the World Values Survey, which included information on trust in banks from the survey in China in 2012, we perform ordered logit estimations to investigate the potential influence of a large set of individual and provincial indicators on trust in banks. We observe the influence of certain sociodemographic indicators. Membership in the Communist Party and living in a rural area are negatively associated with trust in banks. Age and satisfaction with financial situation contribute to higher trust in banks, while being married and having a higher level of education tend to lower trust in banks. Access to information regardless of the type of media disseminating the information (newspapers, television or Internet) seem to have no impact on trust in banks. Economic values influence trust in banks. In particular, individuals who favour inequality as an incentive for individual effort or support an expanded government ownership role in the economy tend to trust banks more.