Browsing by Subject "luottotappiot"

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  • Kiema, Ilkka; Jokivuolle, Esa (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2013
    The aim of the Internal Ratings Based Approach (IRBA) of Basel II was that capital suffices for unexpected losses with at least a 99.9% probability. However, because only a fraction of the required regulatory capital (a quarter to a half) had to be loss absorbing capital, the actual bank solvency probabilities may have been much lower, as the global financial crisis illustrates. Our estimates suggest that under Basel II IRBA the loss-absorbing capital of an average-quality portfolio bank suffices for unexpected losses with a 95%-99% probability. This translates into an expected bank failure rate as high as once in twenty years. Even if the bank s interest income is incorporated into our model, the expected failure rate is still substantial. We show that the expected failure rate increases with loan portfolio riskiness. Our calculations may be viewed as a measure of regulatory "self-delusion" included in Basel II capital requirements. Keywords: capital requirements, Internal Ratings Based Approach, Basel II,financial crisis.
  • Jokivuolle, Esa; Peura, Samu (2000)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 2/2000
    We present a model of risky debt in which collateral value is correlated with the possibility of default.The model is then used to study: 1) the expected amount of debt recovered in the event of default as a function of collateral; and 2) the amount of collateral needed to mitigate the riskiness of a loan to a desired degree.The results obtained could prove useful for estimating recovery rates required by many popular models of credit risk and for determining collateral haircuts in debt transactions.The analysis also generates testable predictions of the behaviour of historical recovery rates of risky debt when collateral is involved.Regulators might benefit from the analysis in developing capital adequacy requirements and reviewing banks' lending standards relative to current collateral values.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2020
    Editorial: Regulation has strengthened the financial system’s resilience 3 Financial stability assessment: Pandemic demonstrates necessity of risk buffers 6 Coronavirus shock will further weaken bank profitability in the euro area 19 Banks must be able to finance firms and withstand loan losses amid the coronavirus pandemic 24 Nordic countries are vulnerable to housing market risks aggravated by the coronavirus pandemic 35
  • Pesola, Jarmo (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2005
    The macroeconomic determinants of banking sector distresses in the Nordic countries, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain and the UK are analysed using an econometric model estimated on panel data from partly the early 1980s to 2002.The dependent variable is the ratio of banks' loan losses to lending.In addition to the lagged dependent variable, the explanatory variables include a surprise change in incomes and real interest rates, both variables as a separate cross-product term with lagged aggregate indebtedness.The underlying macroeconomic account that this paper puts forward is that loan losses are basically generated by strong adverse aggregate shocks under high exposure of banks to such shocks.The underlying innovations to income and real interest rates are constructed using published macro-economic forecast for these variables.According to the results, high customer indebtedness combined with adverse macroeconomic surprise shocks to income and real interest rates contributed to the distress in banking sector. Loan losses also display strong autoregressive behaviour which might indicate a feedback effect from loan losses back to macroeconomic level in deep recessions.The results can be used in macro stresstesting the banking sector. Key words: financial fragility, shock, loan loss, banking crisis JEL Classification numbers: G21, E44
  • Miettinen, Paavo; Saada, Adam; Tiililä, Nea; Vauhkonen, Jukka (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2020
    Stricter capital requirements since the global financial crisis have improved the ability of banks to lend and absorb losses in a crisis situation like the coronavirus pandemic. A robust lending capacity is now needed to finance fundamentally sound Finnish companies with liquidity needs. It must be ensured that banks are well-capitalised to withstand future loan losses.
  • Koskinen, Kimmo; Toivanen, Mervi (2013)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 2
    Banks' financial results have recently been pronouncedly better in the United States than in the euro area. The difference is largely explained by weaker economic activity and strong increases in impairment losses in the euro area. Losses of banks in Southern European countries, in particular, have expanded significantly.
  • Pensala, Johanna; Solttila, Heikki (1993)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/1993
    In this paper we present data collected by the banking supervision authorities on banks' nonperforming assets and loan losses with a view to establishing a consistent database for analysing the condition of Finnish banks and firms.
  • Puustelli, Anne; Koskinen, Lasse; Luoma, Arto (2007)
    In this research we model the claim process of financial guarantee insurance and predict the pure premium and the required amount of risk capital. The used data is from the financial guarantee system of the Finnish statutory pension scheme. The losses in financial guarantee insurance may be devastating during an economic depression (that is, deep recession). This indicates that the economic business cycle, and in particular depressions, must be taken into account when the claim amounts of financial guarantee insurance are modelled. A Markov regime-switching model is used to predict the number and length of depression periods in the future. The claim amounts are predicted by using a transfer function model where the predicted growth rate of real GNP is an explanatory variable. The pure premium and initial risk reserve are evaluated on the basis of the predictive distribution of claim amounts. Bayesian methods are applied throughout the modelling process. For example, the Gibbs sampler is used in the estimation of the business cycle model. Simulation results show that the required amount of risk capital is high even though depression is an infrequent phenomenon.
  • Kauko, Karlo; Savolainen, Eero; Tuomikoski, Olli; Vauhkonen, Jukka (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2019
    The Finnish corporate loan stock has grown in recent years. Corporate loans are riskier than household loans, yet the default rates on corporate lending have almost returned to the levels prevailing before the financial crisis.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Tarashev, Nikola (2021)
    BoF Economics Review 3/2021
    While corporate credit losses have been low since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, their future evolution is quite uncertain. Using a forecasting model with a solid track record, we find that the baseline scenario (“expected losses”) is benign up to 2024. This is due to policy support measures that have kept debt service costs low. However, high indebtedness, built up when the pandemic impaired real activity, suggests increased tail risks: plausible deviations from the baseline scenario (“unexpected losses”) feature ballooning corporate insolvencies. Taken at face value, the low expected loss forecasts are consistent with low bank provisions, whereas the high unexpected loss forecasts call for substantial capital.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar; Wall, Larry D. (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 33/2003
    This paper analyses the determinants of banks loan loss allowances for samples of US banks and three non-US samples: a group of 21 countries, Canada and Japan.The model includes fundamental (or non-discretionary) determinants of the allowance such as non-performing loans, and discretionary determinants such as income before the loan loss provision.The results suggest that the loan loss allowance is sensitive to pre-provision income in almost all samples.However, the results also suggest that some variables thought to reflect fundamental factors in US analysis, such as net chargeoffs, are not significant factors for non-US banks. Key words: loan loss allowance, accounting standards, international banking, nonperforming loan, discretionary accruals JEL classification numbers: G21, G28, E58, F23, G33
  • Nykänen, Marja (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2021
    Household behaviour and business activity continue to be very much influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The prospects for the economic environment returning to a state of normalcy are improving, however, as vaccine rollouts gather pace in Finland and abroad. The Finnish economy has held up better than feared in the worst-case scenarios envisaged one year ago, and the financial system has continued to function well. The economy's better-than-expected performance can be attributed especially to the policy measures put in place domestically and in the euro area, and to the ability of households and businesses to adjust to the emergency conditions.
  • Nykänen, Marja (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2020
    The resilience of banks, firms, and households is being put to the test as the Finnish economy and the economies of its important trading partners experience a sharp contraction. However, financial institutions' solvency and liquidity positions have been strengthened significantly since the global financial crisis, and borrowers are in many respects on sounder footing than they were before the financial crisis or during the Finnish banking and economic crisis of the early 1990s. Strong capital adequacy ensures that banks are better equipped to lend to households and firms. A well-functioning banking sector together with government relief measures will bolster the economy's outset for growth after the crisis.
  • Suomen Pankki (2020)
    Euro & talous 2/2020
    Pääkirjoitus: Sääntely vahvistanut rahoitusjärjestelmää kriisin varalle 3 Vakausarvio: Pandemia osoittaa riskipuskureiden välttämättömyyden 6 Koronasokki heikentää euroalueen pankkien kannattavuutta entisestään 19 Pankkien kyettävä koronapandemiassa luotottamaan yrityksiä ja kestämään luottotappioita 24 Pohjoismaat alttiita koronaviruspandemian voimistamille asuntomarkkinoiden riskeille 35
  • Alhonsuo, Sampo (2019)
    Finanssivalvonta. Blogi 7/2019
    Euroopan pankkiviranomaisen EBAn julkaisema tilastoaineisto kertoo, että järjestämättömät saamiset ovat vähentyneet merkittävästi mutta joissain maissa ongelma on edelleen merkittävä. Asia on tärkeä muun muassa siksi, että Euroopan pankkiunionin viimeistely edellyttää järjestämättömien saamisten vähentämistä.
  • Pesola, Jarmo (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2007
    Published in Journal of Banking & Finance, Volume 35, Issue 11, November 2011: 3134-3144
    This paper tests the hypothesis that the more fragile a banking system is, the more likely it is to experience problems when an unexpected shock hits. The empirical framework where this test is conducted is a reduced form model, where macroeconomic factors explain banks' loan losses. The dependent variable is the ratio of net loan losses to lending in a panel comprising the banking sectors of nine sample countries. An econometric model is estimated on pooled annual data mostly covering the period from the early 1980s to 2002. There are three separate explanatory terms. Two of these include a surprise change both in incomes and real interest rates. Both form a separate cross-product term with lagged aggregate indebtedness. The lagged dependent variable is the third explanatory term possibly capturing the feedback effect from loan losses back to the real economy. The underlying macroeconomic account that this paper puts forward is that loan losses seem basically to be generated by strong adverse aggregate shocks under high exposure of banks to such shocks. The model has been used in connection with stress testing in the Bank of Finland. Key words: financial fragility, unexpected macroeconomic shock, loan loss, stress test JEL classification numbers: G21, E44
  • Pesola, Jarmo; Putkuri, Hanna (2011)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 1
    Finnish banks' net impairment losses on loans and other receivables have been fairly small following the global financial crisis and recession of the Finnish economy. Compared to the recession in the early 1990s, this time the economy has started to recover rapidly. Low interest rates, better-than-expected employment and more contained developments in asset prices have also maintained debtors' repayment capacity
  • Solttila, Heikki; Vihriälä, Vesa (1994)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 23/1994
    The paper focuses on the proximate causes of the Finnish savings and cooperative banks' non-performing assets in the current banking crisis.Specifically, the effects of the lending structure at the outset of the crisis and the rate of growth of lending in the latter half of the 1980s are investigated.The main findings are: (1) Lending structure alone is not sufficient to explain the variation in the share of non-performing assets among the local banks.(2) Growth of lending is a major explanatory factor: the faster the growth in the second half of the 1980s, the higher the later share of non-performing assets.(3) Growth of lending is a particularly important "cause" in the case of the savings banks, where lending structure does not seem to have had much of an impact.(4) Lending to manufacturing, construction and trade has had a significant negative effect on the cooperative banks' asset quality.(5) Differences in the rate of lending growth go a long way in explaining why there are on average much more problem loans in the savings bank group than in the cooperative bank group.(6) The share of foreign currency loans is not an important factor when the effect of growth is accounted for, although the roles cannot be fully separated due to multicollinearity.(7) Assuming that growth of lending is more under the control of a bank than the structure of lending, the findings support the view that "bad luck" is not the only explanation of the Finnish banking problems but "bad banking" in the form of either ignorance of risks or deliberate risk taking is a major factor as well.
  • Juselius, Mikael; Tarashev, Nikola (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
    Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a framework for forecasting these losses jointly. In an application to quarterly US data on loan charge-offs from 1985 to 2019, we find that financial-cycle indicators – notably, the debt service ratio and credit-to-GDP gap – deliver reliable real-time forecasts, signalling turning points up to three years in advance. Provisions and capital that reflect such forecasts would help reduce the procyclicality of banks’ loss-absorbing resources.
  • Jokivuolle, Esa; Kilponen, Juha; Kuusi, Tero (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 26/2007
    We suggest a complementary tool for financial stability analysis based on stochastic simulation of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) of the macro economy. The paper relates to financial stability research in which financial aggregates crucial to financial stability are modelled as functions of macroeconomic variables. In these models, stress tests for eg banking sector loan losses can be generated by considering adverse scenarios of macro variables. A DSGE model provides a systematic way of generating coherent macro scenarios which can be given a rigorous economic interpretation. The approach is illustrated using a DSGE model of the Finnish economy and a simple model of Finnish banking sector loan losses. Keywords: DSGE models, financial stability, loan losses, stress testing JEL classification numbers: E13, E37, G21, G28