Browsing by Subject "osakemarkkinat"

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  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Hanousek, Jan (2006)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2006
    This paper deals with the relationship between mass privatization and stock market development in transition economies.The link is investigated empirically using a panel of data that includes most transition countries.Our results confirm the hypothesis that mass privatization exerted a negative influence on stock market functioning over the short and medium term.Further, it appears that stock markets in countries with mass privatization were initially perceived as mere byproducts of the privatization process.Such stock markets typically not only failed in their core mission of providing capital for the corporate sector, but generated negative investor sentiment and did little to catalyze economic growth. JEL Classifications: G15, G28, P34 Keywords: privatization, mass privatization, emerging stock markets, stock market
  • Nyberg, Peter; Vaihekoski, Mika (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2009
    This paper presents a new monthly value-weighted, all-share total return index for the Finnish stock market. The index covers the period from the establishment of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in October 1912 to the beginning of 1970, after which the WI index by Berglund et al (1983) and later in December 1990, the Exchange s own HEX index are available. When combined, these can be used to study the development of the Finnish equity market without a break from the beginning of the stock market until the present day. We also provide a detailed description of the construction methodology and a comparison between our index and those available earlier. The new index replaces the Unitas price index, which has been the only index available for long-term studies from 1928 onwards. The new index also provides an alternative to the book equity weighted Poutvaara (1996) price index for the period 1912 1929.
  • Taipalus, Katja (2003)
    Suomen Pankki. Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti Syksy
    Osakemarkkinoiden lasku näyttäisi taittuneen, mutta suhtautuminen nousun kestävyyteen on edelleen varauksellinen.
  • Taipalus, Katja (Edita Prima, 2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 35
    Tests for unit roots in log dividend yields, which are consistent with 'rational bubbles' in stock prices, are conducted for the SP500 and Finnish stock market indexes.In addition to the traditional unit root tests, we split the data into 10-year segments and use frequency domain analysis to test for the presence of unit roots in the dividend yield data.The results strongly suggest the existence of bubbles in both the US and Finnish markets.Finally we develop a novel dividend yield-based method to track periods when stock prices divert their fundamental levels. This indicator produces promising results, as it seems to have some forecasting ability concerning booms and busts in the stock markets. Key words: equity price, bubble, rolling ADF
  • Lehtoranta, Antti (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 30/2014
    Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), I document that childhood experience of father's job loss decreases the propensity to own stocks as an adult. If this experience takes place at the age of 5–10 years, the probability of owning stocks decreases by 2.9 percentage points in a sample with mean stock market participation rate of 17%. This finding is robust to alternative definitions of age ranges and controlling for random unobserved effects. I also find an effect of similar magnitude in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data. Keywords: stock market participation, personal experience, job loss
  • Chow, Gregory C.; Liu, Changjiang; Niu, Linlin (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2011
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 39, Issue 4, Dec. 2011, pp. 577-583
    We estimate a time-varying regression model to study the relationship between returns in the Shanghai and New York stock markets, with possible inclusion of lagged returns. The parameters of the regressions reveal that the effect of the current stock return for New York on that for Shanghai steadily increases after the 1997 Asian financial crisis and turns significantly and persistently positive after 2002, when China entered WTO. The effect of the current return for Shanghai on New York also becomes significantly positive and increasing after 2002. The upward trend has been interrupted during the recent global financial crisis, but reaches the level of about 0.4 to 0.5 in 2010 for both markets. Our results show that China's stock market has become more and more integrated into the world market in the past twenty years, with interruptions occurring during the recent global economic downturn.
  • Jokipii, Terhi; Lucey, Brian (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2006
    Published in Economic Systems, 31,1, 2007: 71-96
    Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements between the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover evidence of contagion between all pairs of countries. Adjusting for market volatility during turmoil, however, produces different results. We then find contagion from the Czech Republic to Hungary during this time, but all other cross-market co-movements are rather attributable rather to strong cross-market linkages. In addition, we construct a set of dummy variables to try to capture the impact of macroeconomic news on these markets. Controlling for own-country fundamentals, we discover that the correlations diminish between the Czech Republic and Poland, but that coefficients for all pairs remain substantial and significant. Finally, we address the problem of simultaneous equations, omitted variables and heteroskedasticity, and adjust our data accordingly. We confirm our previous findings. Our tests provide evidence in favour of parameter instability, again signifying the existence of contagion arising from problems in the Czech Republic affecting Hungary during much of 1996.
  • Putkuri, Hanna (2004)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 1
    In January-February, share prices continued the rising trend that began in spring 2003, in both Finland and the international markets, but growth came to a halt in early March. In the euro area in particular, share market liquidity has improved markedly since the start of the year.
  • Becchetti, Leonardo; Ciciretti, Rocco; Hasan, Iftekhar (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2009
    Published in Journal of Business Research, Volume 65, Issue 11, November 2012: 1628-1635
    In today s global economy, corporate social responsibility (CSR) is a core component of corporate strategy. Due in part to financial scandals, losses, and the diminished reputation of the affected listed companies, CRS is emerging as a crucial instrument for minimizing conflicts with stakeholders. While corporations are busy adopting and enhancing CSR practices, there is (beyond a very few notable exceptions) no established empirical research on its impact and relevance for the capital market. Our paper investigates this issue by tracing market reactions to corporate entry into and exit from the Domini 400 Social Index (a recognized CSR benchmark) between 1990 and 2004. Our paper highlights two main findings: i) a significant upward trend in absolute values of abnormal returns, irrespective of the event (entry/exit vis-à-vis the index) type; and ii) a significant negative effect on abnormal returns after announcement from the Domini index. The latter effect continues to persist even after controlling for concurring financial distress shocks and stock market seasonality.
  • Nyberg, Peter; Vaihekoski, Mika (2011)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2011
    This paper gathers the longest available historical monthly return series for the Finnish equity, bond and money markets as well as inflation. The series are analysed to calculate the statistical characteristics of the returns investors would have received in these markets. We also survey existing literature concerning the history of these markets and review the main developments to facilitate future research on the long-term development of the Finnish markets. Using a new total return stock market index for Finland in an approach similar to Mehra and Prescott (2003), we find the equity premium for Finland to be 10.14 per cent from 1913 to 2009.
  • Nyberg, Peter; Vaihekoski, Mika (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2014
    This paper continues the data collection procedure and analysis set forth in Nyberg and Vaihekoski (2009). A number of new time series that are commonly used in finance literature are collected, created, and analyzed for the first time. These series include, among others, monthly dividend yields and market capitalization values. The series are also compared with GDP to evaluate the overall role of the stock market in the Finnish economy. The value-weighted average dividend yield from 1912 to 1988 is 4.98%. The average stock market capitalization to GDP ratio is found to be 15.14%. JEL-classification: G10, G11, N24 Keywords: Stock market, financial history, dividend yield, capitalization values, trading turnover, Finland, Helsinki Stock Exchange, Nasdaq OMX
  • Taipalus, Katja (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. E 47
    To promote the financial stability, there is a need for an early warning system to signal the formation of asset price misalignments. This research provides two novel methods to accomplish this task. Results in this research shows that the conventional unit root tests in modified forms can be used to construct early warning indicators for bubbles in financial markets. More precisely, the conventional augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is shown to provide a basis for two novel bubble indicators. These new indicators are tested via MC simulations to analyze their ability to signal emerging unit roots in time series and to compare their power with standard stability and unit root tests. Simulation results concerning these two new stability tests are promising: they seem to be more robust and to have more power in the presence of changing persistence than the standard stability and unit root tests. When these new tests are applied to real US stock market data starting from 1871, they are able to signal most of the consensus bubbles, defined as stock market booms for example by the IMF, and they also flash warning signals far ahead of a crash. Also encouraging are the results with these methods in practical applications using equity prices in the UK, Finland and China as the methods seem to be able to signal most of the consensus bubbles from the data. Finally, these early warning indicators are applied to data for several housing markets. In most of the cases the indicators seem to work relatively well, indicating bubbles before the periods which, according to the consensus literature, are seen as periods of sizeable upward or downward movements. The scope of application of these early warning indicators could be wide. They could be used eg to help determine the right timing for the start of a monetary tightening cycle or for an increase in countercyclical capital buffers. Key words: asset prices, financial crises, bubbles, indicator, unit-root JEL classification: C15, G01, G12
  • Godlewski, Christophe J.; Turk-Ariss, Rima; Weill, Laurent (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2011
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 41, Issue 3, Pages 745-761, August 2013
    The last decade witnessed a proliferation in issues of sukuk, Islamic financial instruments structured to replicate the cash flows of conventional bonds. Using a market-based approach on Malaysian data, we consider whether investors react differently to the announcements of sukuk and conventional bond issues. Our findings suggest the stock market is neutral to announcements of conventional bond issues, but reacts negatively to announcements of sukuk issues. We attribute this finding to the excess demand for Islamic investment certificates and explain the difference in stock market reactions as an adverse selection mechanism that favors sukuk issuance by lower-quality debtor companies. Unlike previous studies, our findings indicate markets readily distinguish between sukuk and conventional bonds.
  • Pessarossi, Pierre; Weill, Laurent (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2012
    Published in Journal of Economics and Business, Volume 70, November–December 2013, Pages 27–42
    We study the consequences of CEO turnover announcements on the stock prices of firms in China, where most listed firms remain majority-owned by the state. Our proposition is that state ownership may affect stock market reaction to CEO replacement because state-owned firms often pursue multiple, potentially contradictory, objectives, i.e. economic performance and social objectives. Applying standard event study methodology to a sample of 1,094 announcements from 2002 to 2010, we find that CEO turnover typically produces a positive stock market reaction. The reaction is significantly positive, however, only for enterprises owned by the central government, and not significant for enterprises owned by local governments or privately owned enterprises. These results suggest that a CEO turnover in a central state-owned enterprise signals a renewed commitment to the economic performance objective by state officials. The small size of CEO labor market suggests that other shareholders have a relatively small pool of CEO talent to proceed to managerial improvement when a CEO turnover takes place. JEL Classification: G30; M51; P34; O16 Keywords: CEO turnover; corporate governance; state ownership; China; event study
  • Bennani, Hamza (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2019
    Published in Emerging Markets Review ; 2019 ; 40 ; September ; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2019.05.002
    This paper tests whether the People's Bank of China's communication affects expectations of market participants and matters as a monetary policy instrument. For that purpose, we first rely on a computational linguistic tool to measure the tone of PBC speeches and second, we use a high frequency methodology to estimate the effect of tone on stock prices. Our results show that positive changes of the tone affect positively stock prices in the Shanghai and the Shenzhen stocks markets. Additional extensions show that PBC communication does not have a persistent e ect on stock prices and that the tone of PBC communication still has a positive and significant impact on stock prices even when controlling for all the monetary policy instruments implemented by the central bank. Hence, our findings show that PBC communication matters as a monetary policy instrument to shape market expectations and to move asset prices.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Godlewski, Christophe J.; Weill, Laurent (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2015
    Published online in Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, April 2019
    We study the effect of bank loan and bond announcements on borrower’s stock price. We apply an event study methodology on a sample of companies from 17 European countries and find that debt announcement generates a positive stock market reaction. However, our main conclusion is that the issuance of a loan exerts a significantly stronger reaction than does the issuance of a bond. This finding supports the hypothesis that loan issuance has a positive certification effect. The analysis of determinants of abnormal returns following debt announcements shows a positive impact of financial development and a negative effect of the Eurozone crisis.
  • Laine, Olli-Matti (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Scientific monographs. E 53
    This doctoral dissertation analyses the transmission of monetary policy. It applies a variety of empirical methods to study how conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures transmit to different macroeconomic and financial variables. The first article analyses the effect of monetary policy on the term structure of stock market risk premia. The implied term structure is solved in a novel way utilizing equity analysts’ dividend forecasts and dividend future prices. The results show that monetary policy affects risk premia differently at different discounting horizons. Monetary policy easing lowers the short-horizon premia and raises the long-horizon premia. The effect on the average risk premium is positive. The second article studies the effect of targeted longer-term refinancing operations on bank lending. The results suggest that these targeted operations stimulated bank lending to firms. However, no evidence about a positive effect on lending to households is found. The third article examines the effects of conventional monetary policy during the 2008 financial crisis and the era of ultra-low interest rates. Several earlier studies conclude that the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks stayed almost the same during and after the financial crisis. Revisiting this research question, the findings suggest that the impulse response functions of industrial production and unemployment changed drastically after the financial crisis.
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Peresetsky, Anatoly (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2013
    We use a Kalman filter type model of financial markets to extract a global stochastic trend from the discrete non-synchronous data on daily stock market index returns of different stock exchanges. The model is tested for robustness. In addition, we derive "most important" hours of world financial market and estimate the relative importance of local versus global news for different stock markets. The model generates results that are consistent with intuition. Key words: emerging stock markets, transition economies, financial market integration, stock market returns, global stochastic trend, state space model, Kalman filter, non-synchronous data. JEL codes: C49, C58, G10, G15, F36, F65
  • Horvath, Roman; Horvatova, Eva; Siranova, Maria (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2017
    We examine the determinants of financial development using our global sample and employing a rich set of measures of financial development that assess the degree of depth, access, stability and efficiency of financial intermediaries. We use Bayesian model averaging to test competing theories within this unifying framework. Examining nearly 40 potential determinants of financial development, we find that the rule of law and the level of economic development are the most important. Wealth inequality is irrelevant for banking sector development but positively associated with stock market development. Finally, our results suggest that financial market regulations matter for stock market efficiency and financial stability.
  • Jokipii, Terhi (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2006
    This paper studies the extent to which market crashes are predictable for a set of six countries, focusing in particular on possible differences between transition economies (The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) and mature markets (UK, US and EU). We estimate a set of individual country and pooled specifications to find that market crashes, in the broader sense, are predictable for all countries analysed.We additionally investigate the role that investor heterogeneity, proxied by trading volume, plays in this predictability and find some varying results between countries.For the Central and Eastern European Countries (CE3), an increase in trading volume relative to trend appears to have great predictive power, a result that is supportive of the theory of investor heterogeneity outlined in the relevant background studies. For the more mature markets (G5), on the other hand, market crashes appear more likely to follow a period of increased stock prices and returns, a result fitting a number of traditional theories, in particular the stochastic bubble model.Further analysis, allowing for time-varying coefficients, confirms the volume-crash relationship for the CE3 and provides preliminary evidence that macro news releases may additionally contribute to the predictability of market crashes. Keywords: aggregate market returns, skewness, trading volume, market crash JEL classification numbers: C14, G12, G15