Browsing by Subject "pakotteet"

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  • Simola, Heli (2019)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2019
    Russia is integrated with the global economy through trade and financial linkages, making it vulnerable to external shocks. To gain perspective on the importance of various external factors, we present a brief description of Russia’s foreign economic relations and review the recent literature on the effects of foreign shocks on the Russian economy. We examine the impacts on Russian GDP from oil price, foreign output and interest-rate shocks and Western sanctions, as well as exchange-rate pass-through to Russian consumer price inflation. Our review shows that external shocks are important for Russian economic fluctuations. In quantitative terms, the estimates on long-term impacts of different external shocks vary from 0.1 % to 2 % of Russian GDP.
  • Simola, Heli (2022)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 3/2022
    Abstract ... 3 1. Introduction ... 4 2. Russia’s total import dependence and production structure ... 4 3. Import dependence of Russian production ... 6 3.1 Russia is most dependent on imported inputs in high-technology ... 7 3.1.1 Russian machinery and equipment manufacturing sectors are most dependent on imported inputs ... 7 3.1.2 Russia relies on imports particularly for machinery and equipment ... 8 3.2 Perspectives for Russian import substitution are meagre ... 9 3.2.1 Success of import substitution in the agricultural sector has been limited...9 3.2.2 Russia has limited potential to replace imports by reorienting exports ... 10 3.2.3 Survey results highlight problems related to import substitution ... 10 4. Geographical origin of Russia’s imported inputs ... 11 4.1 EU is still the largest provider of imported inputs, but share has decreased...12 4.2 Origin of imports by Russian end-use industry ... 13 4.3 EU dominates high-technology input imports, but China’s share has increased ... 14 4.4 Assessing China’s potential to replace Western imports ... 16 5. Concluding remarks ... 17 References ... 18
  • Simola, Heli (2022)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Venäjän raakalaismainen hyökkäys Ukrainaan ja siitä seuranneet pakotteet romahduttivat ruplan kurssin historiallisen matalalle tasolle helmikuun lopussa. Sodasta ja pakotteista aiheutuvan valtavan epävarmuuden seurauksena pääomaa virtasi ulos Venäjältä ja ruplia vaihdettiin vauhdikkaasti muihin valuuttoihin. Venäjällä jouduttiin turvautumaan rajuihin toimiin valuuttamarkkinoiden vakauttamiseksi.
  • Simola, Heli (2014)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 9/2014
    Russia decided last week on an import ban on certain food products originating in countries that have imposed economic sanctions on Russia. All countries subject to the ban had at least some exports to Russia in these product categories last year.
  • Solanko, Laura (2022)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    We live in unprecedented times, as many things that seemed impossible six weeks ago have become reality. The acute crisis is first and foremost humanitarian. Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine is bringing unimaginable destruction to the lives of Ukrainians as well as to Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine urgently needs our assistance, in many forms. At the same time, however, we need to understand how the war affects the Russian economy.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 7/2021
    The past two decades have witnessed a major transformation of global energy markets. While growth in energy demand now comes from emerging economies, and technologies critical to oil and natural gas production have seen dramatic advances, the biggest changes in global energy markets lie ahead. For countries to meet their ambitious climate goals, demand for conventional energy sources must fall significantly and be accompanied by a massive shift in investment to renewable energy sources. Such changes can have major implications for the Russian economy, which depends heavily on oil and gas. This brief provides an overview of the latest trends in Russia’s oil & gas sector in the context of evolving global energy markets.
  • Korhonen, Iikka (2019)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 2/2019
    In this note, I review the literature on the economic effects of sanctions against Russia and Russia’s counter-sanctions. As a general observation, studies of the macroeconomic effects of sanctions on Russia and their effects on international trade and financial flows must deal with the nearly concurrent oil price collapse at the introduction of sanctions. Most papers support the view that sanctions have worked as planned, noting the drag they have imposed on Russia’s general economic development since 2014. This adverse effect most likely operates by depressing both foreign trade and foreign capital flows into Russia. Russia’s own counter-sanctions have also had a clear negative effect on the welfare of the average Russian household.
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2018
    This note briefly reviews the history and current impacts of sanctions on Russian entities imposed by the EU, US and others, as well as Russia’s counter-sanctions imposed on Western countries. A large drop in price of oil in 2014 and 2015 coincided with these measures, complicating our efforts to tease out the specific economic effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. While it is clear that the decline in oil prices had a substantially larger impact on Russian GDP in 2014−2016 than sanctions, the sanctions regime proved effective in restricting access of Russian banks to capital. Looking specifically the impacts on EU countries, we note that the declines in trade with Russia and the EU’s reduced market share in Russia are to some extent continuations of long-term trends. Russia’s counter-sanctions have targeted, among other things, EU food exports to Russia. While the macroeconomic effects Russia’s counter-sanctions on the EU have been marginal, food sector in some EU countries has been affected. Russia’s counter-sanctions have also directly lowered consumption of affected goods in Russia.
  • Simola, Heli (2022)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2022
    The EU, US and several other countries have responded with a wide range of new economic sanctions on Russia in response to the military attack on Ukraine. These sanctions include various restrictive measures on trade with Russia. In this brief, we examine the potential short-term effects of trade sanctions on Russian production with an input-output framework. We find that the trade sanctions can have substantial negative effects on Russian production when Russia is unable to find alternative markets for imports and exports. Keywords: Russia, trade, sanctions, input-output
  • Solanko, Laura (2021)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Valko-Venäjä on ollut otsikoissa viime kesästä alkaen. Elokuisten presidentinvaalien tulos väärennettiin räikeästi, mikä johti laajoihin protesteihin ympäri maata. Valko-Venäjää käytännössä koko sen itsenäisyyden ajan hallinneen Aljaksandr Lukashenkan hallinto vastasi protesteihin mm. vangitsemalla ja ajamalla maanpakoon sekä oppositiojohtajia että tavallisia kansalaisiaan. Jatkuvat ihmisoikeusrikkomukset ovat saaneet EU-maat arvioimaan uudelleen suhteensa tähän Euroopan viimeiseksi diktatuuriksi mainittuun maahan. Ryanairin reittikoneen pakottaminen Minskin kentälle oppositioaktivisti Raman Pratasevitsin pidättämiseksi (23.5.) voimisti keskustelua talouspakotteiden kohdistamisesta Valko-Venäjää kohtaan.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 6/2021
    Globaalit energiamarkkinat ovat olleet murroksessa koko 2000-luvun. Viimeisen kahdenkymmenen vuoden aikana energian kysynnän kasvu on siirtynyt voimakkaasti nouseviin talouksiin samalla kun öljyn ja maakaasun tuotantoteknologiat ovat kehittyneet merkittävästi. Vielä suurempi murros energiamarkkinoilla näyttää kuitenkin olevan edessä. Monien maiden kunnianhimoiset ilmastotavoitteet voivat vähentää globaalia energian kysyntää huomattavasti ja suunnata sitä entistä enemmän uusiutuviin energianlähteisiin. Venäjän taloudelle tällä saattaa olla merkittäviä vaikutuksia, koska öljy- ja kaasusektorin rooli taloudessa on suuri. Tässä julkaisussa tarkastellaan Venäjän öljy ja kaasusektorin viimeaikaista kehitystä ja tulevaisuudennäkymiä globaalien energiamarkkinoiden murroksen taustaa vasten.