Browsing by Subject "pandemiat"

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  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    The global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic intensified in March 2020. The health crisis and the lockdown measures necessary to contain the epidemic led to an exceptionally sudden and sharp decline in output worldwide in the first half of the year. In 2020 as a whole, the global economy is expected to contract by about 4–6%, and the euro area economy by about 8–10%. The euro area economy would seem to be diving a little deeper this year than the United States, but the pace of recovery is very uncertain for both. China saw the most difficult phase of the epidemic and thus the sharpest economic contraction in the first quarter of 2020. China’s recovery has been facilitated by the production and export of remote work equipment and protective equipment for the coronavirus disease. The pandemic shock has had a dampening effect on inflation. Unemployment is on the rise, but the euro area has avoided sudden mass unemployment through furloughs and government aid.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2021
    Payments are changing. In the same way that technological progress influences so many of the day-to-day activities of households and businesses, it affects how we make payments. The coronavirus pandemic has irreversibly changed how we live during the past year and has accelerated many long-brewing developments. The future of payments may arrive sooner than anticipated just one year ago.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    The worldwide economic crisis caused by the corona pandemic peaked in March 2020. In the early part of the year both output and consumption contracted suddenly and strongly; in other words, goods and services were both produced and consumed considerably less than before. The global economy is forecast to contract in the current year by around 4–6%, and the euro area economy by around 8–10%. Prior to the corona crisis, in 2019 the economy grew 2.9% globally, and 1.3% in the euro area. In the current year, the euro area economy would appear to be diving slightly deeper than the US economy, but the pace of recovery for both is very uncertain. Unemployment is growing, but in the euro area sudden mass unemployment has been avoided through the deployment of furloughs and various support measures.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2021
    The global economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic with the support of vaccines and economic policy. Inflation, or the increase in the general level of prices for goods and services, has accelerated globally as the economy has recovered. The increase in the pace of inflation will, however, begin to flatten out next year. The economy has recovered more rapidly in the United States than in the euro area. Forecasts suggest the euro area economy will reach its pre-crisis level towards the end of the current year. Central banks and governments in different countries have supported the economy in a variety of ways during the crisis. These stimulus measures have accelerated the economic recovery, but many countries have become heavily indebted during the pandemic. Reducing the debt burden is actually the next long-term economic challenge.
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2020
    The corona crisis has impacted negatively on the Finnish economy and on the country’s banks and their customers in a number of ways. The banks now need to deploy the financial buffers they have been accumulating since the global financial crisis just over a decade ago. By granting new loans and amortisation holidays, the banks can for their part help businesses and households survive the acute phase of the current crisis. At the same time, banks must prepare for an increase in loan losses from previously granted loans.
  • Kärkkäinen, Samu; Viertola, Hannu (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2021
    The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting lockdown measures have imposed severe constraints on the consumption opportunities of households, and demand has especially collapsed in a number of service industries. Households have accumulated a significant amount of savings since early 2020 due to the shortfall in consumption caused by the pandemic. The release of these savings into private consumption or housing demand over the next few years may result in economic growth proving much stronger than anticipated in the baseline forecast.
  • Lindblad, Annika; Silvo, Aino; Viertola, Hannu (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2021
    Supply-side bottlenecks have weakened the momentum of global growth. Finnish manufacturing companies are also suffering from shipping disruptions and input shortages. Under a scenario prepared by the Bank of Finland, supply disruptions reduce GDP growth in Finland by around 0.5 percentage points in 2021.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 6/2020
    During the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, fiscal policy has been deployed to support households and businesses hit by the crisis. At the same time, fiscal stimulus has been stepped up to bolster economic recovery. After the crisis, once the economy has returned to a sustainable growth path, the upward trend in the public debt-to-GDP ratio must be halted and fiscal space rebuilt. Changing the course of the public finances will require broad consensus on long-term objectives, clear short-term interim targets, and concrete measures over the coming years. With the coinciding rise in age-related expenditure, rebalancing the public finances will be difficult.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2021
    Managing the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic still requires a lot of work, but in many sectors of Finland’s economy the engines are already firing on all cylinders. The elevated structural deficit in the country’s public finances will need to be remedied in the wake of the pandemic, when the longer term expenditure pressures related to an ageing population start to swell steadily, turning into today’s issues and problems. At the same time, future challenges such as climate change mitigation call for political action, and this will also affect the fiscal balance and the level of debt. In fiscal policy there must be a return towards more balanced budgets, but new spending on matters that are always deemed indispensable makes this difficult.
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2021
    COVID-19 is accelerating the payment revolution 3 Future of payments at hand 6 COVID-19 pandemic causing permanent change in payment habits 13 Payment and settlement systems subject to oversight 30
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2021
    Monetary policy supporting sustainable economic recovery and a brighter outlook for inflation 3 International economy making swift recovery from COVID-19 crisis, but there’s still some way to go 5 Monetary policy measures taken during pandemic revived euro area economy 40 Inflation expectations help in analysing the euro area inflation outlook 46 ECB revised its monetary policy strategy – what’s changed? 52
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2020
    Monetary policy is supporting economic recovery — but the outlook for employment remains weak 3 A fragile recovery from the pandemic crisis has begun 6 Corona crisis has increased the risk of stagnation in the euro area 46
  • Bank of Finland (2021)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2021
    Recovery continues – monetary policy under conflicting pressures 3 Economy growing in the shadow of the virus 7 Supply-side disruptions slow growth also in Finland 31 Assessment of public finances 2021: Time for fiscal policy to refocus on the future 37 Long-term sustainability of the public finances 50 Finland’s new long-term forecast suggests GDP growth will be more subdued 55 Supply bottlenecks are having wide-spread impacts on the economy 69 Forecast tables for 2021–2024 (December 2021) 85
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2020
    Editorial: Regulation has strengthened the financial system’s resilience 3 Financial stability assessment: Pandemic demonstrates necessity of risk buffers 6 Coronavirus shock will further weaken bank profitability in the euro area 19 Banks must be able to finance firms and withstand loan losses amid the coronavirus pandemic 24 Nordic countries are vulnerable to housing market risks aggravated by the coronavirus pandemic 35
  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The worst-case scenario in the corona spring did not materialise, but we will still need stamina for the long haul 3 Forecast tables for 2020–2022 (June 2020) 7
  • Miettinen, Paavo; Saada, Adam; Tiililä, Nea; Vauhkonen, Jukka (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2020
    Stricter capital requirements since the global financial crisis have improved the ability of banks to lend and absorb losses in a crisis situation like the coronavirus pandemic. A robust lending capacity is now needed to finance fundamentally sound Finnish companies with liquidity needs. It must be ensured that banks are well-capitalised to withstand future loan losses.
  • Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar (2022)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022
    We document a remarkable increase in economic belief polarization - disagreement - regarding the future state of the economy across Europe during the Covid-19 pandemic. We find evidence suggesting that belief polarization may have impeded the implementation of pandemic response measures such as social distancing and teleworking as well as policies providing economic support. We find an association between belief polarization on the one hand and trust in the press, fake news, political polarization, and possibly also inequality on the other. These results indicate that belief polarization, by hindering the implementation of crisis response policies, may be one channel which could amplify the negative effects of large or unusual crises.
  • Ru, Hong; Yang, Endong; Zou, Kunru (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2020
    This paper documents a strong delayed response to COVID-19, which is caused by the SARS-CoV2 virus in countries that did not encounter the SARS disease in 2003. The SARS outbreak was caused by a similar virus, SARS-CoV-1. Individuals in countries that developed SARS infections in 2003 search more intensively for COVID-19-related information on Google during the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, in late January 2020. Governments in countries that have not experienced SARS respond significantly slower in implementing containment measures to combat COVID-19 than countries that have experienced SARS. Furthermore, the timely responses of individuals and governments are more pronounced in countries that reported deaths caused by SARS, which left deeper imprints. Consequently, COVID-19 case numbers and mortalities have been substantially higher in countries that did not experience SARS deaths. Our findings suggest that the imprint of the early experience of similar viruses is a fundamental mechanism underlying timely responses to COVID-19.
  • Simola, Heli (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    The global economy and global trade flows have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis. The trade collapse in the second quarter of 2020 was even more severe than during the trough of the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2009. However, taking into account the substantial fall in the GDP of most countries during the COVID-19 crisis, the relative trade contraction seems milder compared with the GFC. During the GFC, the combined volume of the GDP in OECD countries contracted by about 5%, and the combined volume of imports of goods and services by 17% from peak to trough (Figure 1). The corresponding figures for the COVID-19 crisis were -12% and -20%, respectively. Trade has also recovered rapidly since the trough in the second quarter of 2020. Trade was almost back at pre-crisis level by the end of the year.
  • Koskinen, Kimmo (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2020
    Expectations of a deteriorating economic outlook increased the risks to banks’ operating environment even before the coronavirus pandemic spread to Europe. At the end of 2019, banks’ return on equity was 5.2%, compared with 6.2% a year earlier. While some banks were experiencing profitability challenges already prior to the outbreak of the pandemic, profitability also differs greatly between countries, bank business models and individual banks. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, banks’ income development will further deteriorate, and it is likely to fall well below banks’ imputed cost of equity. The effects of the pandemic are widely reflected in the stock prices of European banks (Euro Stoxx Banks Index), which have fallen by 40% since the beginning of 2020.