Browsing by Subject "preemiot"

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  • Malkamäki, Markku (1992)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/1992
    This paper studies the driving forces of predictable variation in Finnish stock returns. The dynamics of Ferson and Harvey's (1991) methodology are extended and applied within the Sharpe-Lintner CAPM. We find that market risk is conditionally priced in the thin Finnish stock market. Most of the predictable variation of stock returns is attributed to the time-varying risk premium, which supports the hypothesis of rational behavior by Finnish investors in setting stock prices. However, the conditional residual term accounted for a larger part of the predictable variation of the stock returns than is found in the US market.
  • Saukkonen, Erja (1995)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 30/1995
    This paper is a study of default risk on Finnish government debt. The objectives of the study are to estimate the size of the default risk and to shed some light to the causes of default risk, using simple regression runs.To estimate the Finnish government default risk premium, we measured the interest rate differential on Finnish government DEM- and USD-denominated bonds compared to respectively German and US government bonds over the period October 1991 February 1995.For the sake of comparison, we also measured the interest rate differential between Finnish government FIM-denominated bonds and German government bonds.Our results indicate that for the period studied the default risk premium on the Finnish government foreign-currency denominated debt was quite small, but by no means trivial and clearly not constant.The default risk premium on DEM-denominated debt was a small fraction of the differential for FIM-denominated debt.Our results provide strong evidence that the default risk premium was mainly determined by the level and growth rate of government debt and was not related to the general economic indicators (GDP and current account).
  • Nyberg, Peter; Vaihekoski, Mika (2011)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2011
    This paper gathers the longest available historical monthly return series for the Finnish equity, bond and money markets as well as inflation. The series are analysed to calculate the statistical characteristics of the returns investors would have received in these markets. We also survey existing literature concerning the history of these markets and review the main developments to facilitate future research on the long-term development of the Finnish markets. Using a new total return stock market index for Finland in an approach similar to Mehra and Prescott (2003), we find the equity premium for Finland to be 10.14 per cent from 1913 to 2009.
  • Francis, Bill B.; Hasan, Iftekhar; Hunter, Delroy M. (2008)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2008
    Published in Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 90, Issue 2, November 2008, Pages 169-196
    While the importance of currency movements to industry competitiveness is theoretically well established, there is little evidence that currency risk impacts US industries. Applying a conditional asset-pricing model to 36 US industries, we find that all industries have a significant currency premium that adds about 2.47 percentage points to the cost of equity and accounts for approximately 11.7% of the absolute value of total risk premia. Cross-industry variation in the currency premium is explained by foreign income, industry competitiveness, leverage, liquidity and other industry characteristics, while its time variation is explained by US aggregate foreign trade, monetary policy, growth opportunities and other macro variables. The results indicate that methodological weakness, not hedging, explains the insignificant industry currency risk premium found in previous work, thus resolving the conundrum that the currency risk premium is important at the aggregate stock market level, but not at industry level
  • Kilponen, Juha (2012)
    Euro & talous. Rahapolitiikka ja kansainvälinen talous 4
    Vastasyklinen finanssipolitiikka on kansantaloudelle edullista, koska se tasaa suhdannevaihteluita sekä pienentää julkisten menojen rahoituskustannuksia. Jos finanssipolitiikka toimii suhdannevaihteluita voimistavalla tavalla, myös rahapolitiikan edellytykset vakauttaa makrotaloutta heikentyvät. Euroalueen jäsenmaiden sopimilla finanssipolitiikan kurinalaisuutta lisäävillä päätöksillä on tässä mielessä euroalueen vakautta lisääviä vaikutuksia.
  • Kilponen, Juha (2012)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Monetary policy and the global economy 4
    A countercyclical fiscal policy is beneficial to the economy, as it smoothes out business cycle fluctuations and reduces government debt servicing costs. If, on the other hand, fiscal policy is procyclical, this hampers the capacity of monetary policy to foster macroeconomic stability. This being the case, decisions by euro area member countries that enhance fiscal discipline will increase stability in the euro area.
  • Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, Fabio (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2017
    We show that the out-of-sample forecast of the equity risk premium can be signi ficantly improved by taking into account the frequency-domain relationship between the equity risk premium and several potential predictors. We consider fi fteen predictors from the existing literature, for the out-of-sample forecasting period from January 1990 to December 2014. The best result achieved for individual predictors is a monthly out-of-sample R2 of 2.98 % and utility gains of 549 basis points per year for a mean-variance investor. This performance is improved even further when the individual forecasts from the frequency-decomposed predictors are combined. These results are robust for di fferent subsamples, including the Great Moderation period, the Great Financial Crisis period and, more generically, periods of bad, normal and good economic growth. The strong and robust performance of this method comes from its ability to disentangle the information aggregated in the original time series of each variable, which allows to isolate the frequencies of the predictors with the highest predictive power from the noisy parts.
  • Kortela, Tomi (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 1/2017
    Financial market inflation expectations are often measured by inflation swaps. Estimated on this basis, euro area inflation expectations have been increasing since autumn 2016. Interpretation of inflation swaps is not, however, straightforward. Closer scrutiny shows that market inflation expectations have strengthened by less than could be judged by examining mere swap prices.
  • Ravenna, Federico; Seppälä, Juha (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2007
    Within a New Keynesian business cycle model, we study variables that are normally unobservable but are very important for the conduct of monetary policy, namely expected inflation and inflation risk premia. We solve the model using a third-order approximation that allows us to study time-varying risk premia. Our model is consistent with rejection of the expectations hypothesis and the business-cycle behaviour of nominal interest rates in US data. We find that inflation risk premia are very small and display little volatility. Hence, monetary policy authorities can use the difference between nominal and real interest rates from index-linked bonds as a proxy for inflation expectations. Moreover, for short maturities current inflation is a good predictor of inflation risk premia. We also find that short-term real interest rates and expected inflation are significantly negatively correlated and that short-term real interest rates display greater volatility than expected inflation. These results are consistent with empirical studies that use survey data and index-linked bonds to obtain measures of expected inflation and real interest rates. Finally, we show that our economy is consistent with the Mundell-Tobin effect: increases in inflation are associated with higher nominal interest rates, but lower real interest rates. Keywords: term structure of interest rates, monetary policy, expected inflation, inflation risk premia, Mundell-Tobin effect JEL classification numbers: E5, E43, E44, G12
  • Kortela, Tomi (2017)
    Euro & talous 1/2017
    Rahoitusmarkkinoiden inflaatio-odotuksia mitataan useasti inflaatioswapeilla. Niiden pohjalta arvioituna euroalueen inflaatiota koskevat odotukset ovat kasvaneet syksystä 2016. Inflaatioswapien tulkinta ei kuitenkaan ole suoraviivaista. Lähempi tarkastelu osoittaa, että markkinoiden inflaatio-odotukset ovat voimistuneet vähemmän kuin pelkästään swapien hintoja tarkastelemalla voisi päätellä.
  • Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, Fabio (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2018
    Published in Journal of Financial Markets as "The yield curve and the stock market: mind the long run" 2020 ; 50 ; September ;
    We extract cycles in the term spread (TMS) and study their role for predicting the equity risk premium (ERP) using linear models. The low frequency component of the TMS is a strong and robust out-of-sample ERP predictor. It obtains out-of-sample R-squares (versus the historical mean benchmark) of 1.98% and 22.1% for monthly and annual data, respectively. It forecasts well also during expansions and outperforms several variables that have been proposed as good ERP predictors. Its predictability power comes exclusively from the discount rate channel. Contrarily, the high and business-cycle frequency components of the TMS are poor out-of-sample ERP predictors.
  • Seppälä, Juha (2000)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 22/2000
    This paper studies the behavior of the default-risk-free real term structure and term premia in two general equilibrium endowment economies with complete markets but without money.In the first economy there are no frictions as in Lucas (1978) and in the second risk-sharing is limited by the risk of default as in Alvarez and Jermann (2000ab).Both models are solved numerically, calibrated to UK aggregate and household data, and the predictions are compared to data on real interest rates constructed from the UK index-linked data.While both models produce time-varying risk or term premia, only the model with limited risk-sharing can generate enough variation in the term premia to account for the rejections of expectations hypothesis.
  • Christoffel, Kai; Jaccard, Ivan; Kilponen, Juha (2013)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 32/2013
    How do cyclical fiscal stabilisation policies affect welfare and government bond risk premia? Using a new Keynesian model we find that the effects of fiscal policy rules on the bond premium and welfare crucially depend on the source of business cycle fluctuations. The overall effect is estimated using Bayesian methods and the mechanism is deconstructed by examining the propagation mechanism of the different shocks. We find that the impact of fiscal policy cyclicality on welfare and risk premia is highly non-linear and that these effects are of a policy relevant magnitude. Finally, we find that the welfare cost of highly procyclical fiscal policies are very large, but also excessive fiscal stabilization can generate non- negligible welfare losses. Keywords: New Keynesian models, fiscal policy, bond risk premium, monetary policy. JEL: E5, E6, G1
  • Melolinna, Marko (2011)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2011
    Published in OPEC Energy Review, 35, 4, December 2011: 287-307
    This paper studies the existence of risk premia in crude oil futures prices with simple regression and Bayesian VAR models. It also studies the importance of three main risk premia models in explaining and forecasting the risk premia in practice. Whilst the existence of the premia and the validity of the models can be established at certain time points, it turns out that the choice of sample period has a considerable effect on he results. Hence, the risk premia are highly timevarying. The study also establishes a model, based on speculative positions in the futures markets, which has some predictive power for future oil spot prices.