Browsing by Subject "rakennemuutokset"

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  • Hirvensalo, Inkeri (1994)
  • Babetskii, Ian; Campos, Nauro F. (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2007
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Volume 39, Issue 2, June 2011, Pages 140-158
    Why are socially beneficial reforms not implemented? One simple answer to this question (which has received little attention in the literature) is that this may be caused by generalised uncertainty about the effectiveness of reforms. If agents are unsure about whether a proposed reform will work, it will be less likely to be adopted. Despite the numerous benefits economists assign to structural reforms, the empirical literature has thus far failed to establish a positive and significant effect of reforms on economic performance. We collect data from 43 econometric studies (for more than 300 coefficients on the effects of reform on growth) and show that approximately one third of these coefficients is positive and significant, another third is negative and significant, and the final third is not statistically significant different from zero. In trying to understand this remarkable variation, we find that the measurement of reform and controlling for institutions and initial conditions are main factors in decreasing the probability of reporting a significant and positive effect of reform on growth.
  • Räikkönen, Keijo (1971)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 45 ; 2 ; February
  • Kilponen, Juha; Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2015)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 5/2014
    The prolongation of the recession, accumulation of public debt and ageing of the population are eroding the growth potential of the Finnish economy. Potential output growth is expected to remain below 1% over the next 25 years.
  • Alexashenko, Sergey (1992)
  • Eronen, Jarmo (1994)
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri; Newby, Elisa; Orjasniemi, Seppo; Railavo, Jukka (2012)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 3
    To make the correct economic policy choices one must have a view of the long-term growth prospects for the economy, as these policy choices will have implications for decades ahead. Of the factors that will influence economic growth in the decades ahead, the easiest to anticipate is population ageing, which will depress labour supply and hence reduce the economy's growth potential. In contrast, it is much harder to estimate future trends in productivity. The slower productivity growth since 2008 could be viewed as a temporary phenomenon that will be followed by a return to the earlier trend of rapid productivity growth, but it could also be a more permanent change. In any case, the share of output taken by services, with their slower productivity growth, will grow in the immediate decades ahead as the population ages, which foretells much more sluggish GDP over the next few decades.
  • Hjerppe, Riitta (1987)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 61 ; 12 ; December
  • Sutela, Pekka; Komulainen, Tuomas; Rautava, Jouko; Korhonen, Vesa; Tekoniemi, Merja; Lainela, Seija (2003)
    BOFIT Online 8/2003
    Sisällysluettelo: Venäjä nopeassa kasvussa? päällikkö Pekka Sutela 4 Rahoitusmarkkinat ja yritysjärjestelyt ekonomisti Tuomas Komulainen 6 Venäjän rakennepolitiikan saavutukset ja haasteet ekonomisti Jouko Rautava 8 Venäjä ja talousintegraation ankkurit ekonomisti Vesa Korhonen 10 Venäjän maatalous 2000-luvulla - erityistarkastelussa viljan vientinäkymät ekonomisti Merja Tekoniemi 12 Väestökehityksen varjot ekonomisti Seija Lainela 14 Mitä tämä kaikki merkitsee Suomelle? päällikkö Pekka Sutela 16
  • Melolinna, Marko (2014)
    Euro & talous. Rahapolitiikka ja kansainvälinen talous 4
    Rakennepoliittiset uudistukset parantavat pitkällä aikavälillä euroalueen taloudellista hyvinvointia. Lyhyellä aikavälillä uudistukset voivat myös heikentää talouden kehitystä. Kokonaisuudessaan euroalueen rakennepolitiikan sekä empiirinen että teoreettinen tarkastelu viittaa kuitenkin vahvasti siihen, että rakennepoliittisiin uudistuksiin on kipeästi tarvetta. Rakenneuudistukset ovat ainoa tie talouden tuotantopotentiaalin kasvattamiseen tilanteessa, jossa useiden euroalueen talouksien tuleva pitkän aikavälin kehitys ja julkisen talouden kestävyys näyttävät synkiltä.
  • Suomen Pankki (2015)
    Euro & talous 4/2015
    Rakenteelliset uudistukset ovat nousemassa yhä tärkeämpään asemaan pitkän aikavälin kasvunäkymien elvyttämisessä. Maailmantalouden kasvu suuren taantuman jälkeen on ollut hidasta. Taustasyitä tilanteeseen on etsitty sekä kysyntä- että tarjontapuolen tekijöistä. Ainakin osa ongelmista on rakenteellisia, eikä niihin voida vaikuttaa suhdanteita tasaavalla elvytyspolitiikalla.
  • Gavrilenkov, Eugene (1994)
  • Laurila, Juhani; Singh, Rupinder (2000)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2000
    Published in Russian and East European Finance and Trade, vol 37, no 3 (2001), pp. 25-76
    The aim is to review transition literature for evidence that supports sequential reform strategy, as presented in this report. The second part discusses the findings in the context of Azerbaijan, a formerly socialist transition economy with interesting initial conditions.Evidence of the country's current need to focus on improving public services fits well with the sequential reform view. The authors argue that constraints captured by initial conditions (human resources, administrative capacities, traditions, etc.) necessitate sequencing of reforms and outline general aspects of a sequential reform strategy designed to expedite the transition process.The literature survey supports the Washington Consensus recommendations for starting transition with macroeconomic reforms, but over time initial conditions inevitably constrain and necessitate sequencing.In other words, reform efforts initially need to be directed across the widest possible front, but later in transition the emphasis of reform efforts needs to shift from one area to another.In the later stages, emphasis needs to be laid on improvement of public sector governance to support and promote macroeconomic reforms and formation of a healthy corporate sector. Democratic institutions arise with economic growth generated by the corporate sector.
  • Vuori, Synnöve; Ylä-Anttila, Pekka (1987)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 61 ; 12 ; December
  • Korpinen, Pekka (1968)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 42 ; 2 ; February
  • Bank of Finland (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 4/2015
    Structural reforms are playing an increasingly important role in the recovery of long-term outlook for growth. Globally, growth has been slow since the Great Recession. Reasons for this have been sought from both supply- and demand-side factors. At least some of the problems are structural and cannot be addressed with counter-cyclical stimulus policies.
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri; Railavo, Jukka (2013)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 5
    In August 2013, the Finnish government published the general outlines of an extensive structural policy programme.1 The programme sets out the objectives for bringing the public finances onto a sustainable footing. The aim is to strengthen local government finances by scaling down municipal obligations and to look for measures that will enable improvements to the productivity of public service provision, lengthen working lives, reduce structural unemployment and boost the economy's potential output via other means. The structural reforms, if implemented as planned, would mean a considerable improvement in the state of the public finances. According to the Bank of Finland's calculations, the fiscal sustainability gap could be bridged if it were possible to implement the reforms in full and without delay. However, achievement of the targeted effects would require significant changes to the structures of the economy. The average employment rate would rise substantially. Employment structures would also change from what has been estimated previously, as the production of public services would require a much smaller work force than expected if the reduced level of local government services could be provided more efficiently. The present article examines the structural reforms from the perspective of fiscal sustainability.2 At the same time, we discuss the changes that the realisation of the objectives would necessitate in the labour market and other economic activity, among other factors. In addition, there is a projection of the position of the public finances a couple of decades ahead. The effects of the structural reforms will take several decades to feed through to the macroeconomy and the public finances. The key question is how high the general government debt ratio can rise before the structural reforms begin to exert an effect. The scenarios indicate that, even if local government consolidation measures materialise according to schedule and working lives lengthen as targeted, the debt ratio will rise to around 90% in the 2030s. If, in addition, public service productivity improves and potential output grows, the debt ratio will remain in the region of 70%. The examination of the structural reforms is extended by an analysis taking account of economic agents' reactions to both the structural reforms and the resultant change in the required fiscal consolidation. In the Bank of Finland's macroeconomic model, the public finances are modelled in a way that enables assessment of the macroeconomic implications of a higher retirement age, increased potential output and local government savings. 3 Model simulations show that reforms enabling reductions in taxes and other charges on labour boost both growth and employment.
  • Hetemäki, Lauri; Hänninen, Riitta (2009)
    Suomen metsäala on merkittävässä käännekohdassa. Sen taustalla ovat mm. mullistukset metsäteollisuustuotteiden kansainvälisillä markkinoilla, ilmastonmuutos, uusiutuvia energia-muotoja tukeva politiikka sekä yhteiskunnan elinkeinorakenteen ja arvojen muutokset. Tästä rakennemuutoksesta olemme nähneet vasta ensi askeleet. Missä mitassa ja minkälaisena metsäteollisuuden rakennemuutos tulee jatkumaan? Metsäntutkimuslaitos julkaisi keväällä arvion Suomen metsäteollisuuden kehityksestä vuoteen 2020. Tässä artikkelissa esitetään tiivistetysti arvioiden taustalla olevan analyysin pääpiirteet ja tulokset.
  • Kilponen, Juha; Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2014)
    Euro & talous. Talouden näkymät 5/2014
    Taantuman pitkittyminen, julkisen sektorin velkaantuminen ja väestön ikääntyminen murentavat Suomen talouden kasvupotentiaalia. Potentiaalisen tuotannon kasvun odotetaan jäävän vajaaseen prosenttiin tulevan 25 vuoden aikana.
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri; Newby, Elisa; Orjasniemi, Seppo; Railavo, Jukka (2012)
    Euro & talous. Talouden näkymät 3
    Talouspolitiikan päätöksentekoa varten tarvitaan arvioita talouden pitkän aikavälin kasvunäkymistä, sillä näillä politiikkavalinnoilla on vaikutuksia vuosikymmenten päähän. Talouskasvuun vaikuttavista tekijöistä parhaiten ennakoitavissa on väestön ikääntyminen, joka tulee vähentämään työn tarjontaa ja siten talouden kasvupotentiaalia. Tuottavuuden arviointi on sen sijaan paljon vaikeampaa. Tuottavuuden kasvun hidastuminen vuoden 2008 jälkeen voidaan nähdä väliaikaiseksi ilmiöksi, jota seuraa paluu aiempaan nopean tuottavuuden kasvun trendin mukaiseen kehitykseen, mutta kyse voi olla myös pysyvämmästä hidastumisesta. Ikääntymisen myötä hitaan tuottavuuskasvun palvelualojen osuus tuotannosta joka tapauksessa kasvaa, mikä ennakoi selvästi aiempaa vaimeampaa bruttokansantuotteen kasvua lähivuosikymmeniksi.