Browsing by Subject "riippuvuudet"

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  • Jokipii, Terhi; Lucey, Brian (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2006
    Published in Economic Systems, 31,1, 2007: 71-96
    Making use of ten years of daily data, this paper examines whether banking sector co-movements between the three largest Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) can be attributed to contagion or to interdependence. Our tests based on simple unadjusted correlation analysis uncover evidence of contagion between all pairs of countries. Adjusting for market volatility during turmoil, however, produces different results. We then find contagion from the Czech Republic to Hungary during this time, but all other cross-market co-movements are rather attributable rather to strong cross-market linkages. In addition, we construct a set of dummy variables to try to capture the impact of macroeconomic news on these markets. Controlling for own-country fundamentals, we discover that the correlations diminish between the Czech Republic and Poland, but that coefficients for all pairs remain substantial and significant. Finally, we address the problem of simultaneous equations, omitted variables and heteroskedasticity, and adjust our data accordingly. We confirm our previous findings. Our tests provide evidence in favour of parameter instability, again signifying the existence of contagion arising from problems in the Czech Republic affecting Hungary during much of 1996.
  • Sierimo, Carolina; Virén, Matti (1995)
    Bank of Finland. Discussion papers 34/1995
    This paper examines the relationships between financial and nonfinancial variables in three Nordic countries (Finland, Norway and Sweden).We try to find out whether there exists some kind of dichotomy between these two sets of variables, both in terms of levels of variables and the respective volatilities.In particular, we scrutinize the role of the stock market (stock prices and stock market turnover) in this respect.The analysis makes use of standard time series analytical tools, cointegration analysis, analysis of Granger causality and cross-spectral analysis.The results of these empirical analyses suggest that, although the behaviour of the financial variables has been quite similar, there are important differences between these three countries.Still, in all countries important relationships between these sets of variables are detected.However, in most cases causality seems to be bidirectional or instantaneous.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Maraun, Douglas; Mayes, David (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2006
    Published in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, No. 4, Volume: 2008, Issue 1: 63-95
    Using recent advances in time-varying spectral methods, this research analyses the growth cycles of the core of the euro area in terms of frequency content and phasing of cycles.The methodology uses the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and also Hilbert wavelet pairs in the setting of a non-decimated discrete wavelet transform in order to analyse bivariate time series in terms of conventional frequency domain measures from spectral analysis.The findings are that coherence and phasing between the three core members of the euro area (France, Germany and Italy) have increased since the launch of the euro. Key words: time-varying spectral analysis, coherence, phase, business cycles, EMU, growth cycles, Hilbert transform, wavelet analysis JEL classification numbers: C19, C63, C65, E32, E39, E58, F40
  • Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Leitemo, Kai (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2005
    Published in Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 56, Issue 2, March 2009, Pages 275-282
    We estimate the interdependence between US monetary policy and the S&P 500 using structural VAR methodology.A solution is proposed to the simultaneity problem of identifying monetary and stock price shocks by using a combination of short-run and long-run restrictions that maintains the qualitative properties of a monetary policy shock found in the established literature (CEE 1999).We find great interdependence between interest rate setting and stock prices.Stock prices immediately fall by 1.5 per cent due to a monetary policy shock that raises the federal funds rate by ten basis points.A stock price shock increasing stock prices by one per cent leads to an increase in the interest rate of five basis points.Stock price shocks are orthogonal to the information set in the VAR model and can be interpreted as non-fundamental shocks.We attribute a major part of the surge in stock prices at the end of the 1990s to these non-fundamental shocks. Key words: VAR, monetary policy, asset prices, identification JEL classification numbers: E61, E52, E43
  • Tarkka, Juha; Kortelainen, Mika (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2005
    We study the effect of the zero bound constraint of interest rates on international transmission of economic policy and supply shocks. After some preliminary analysis with a simple theoretical model, we apply a rich two-country simulation model to the problem.The model framework consists of EDGE, Bank of Finland's dynamic equilibrium model for the euro area, linked to a similar model calibrated to resemble the US economy.The models have new Keynesian properties because of price rigidities and forward-looking pricing, consumption and investment behaviour.We assume freely floating exchange rates.Monetary policies are modelled with Taylor type policy rules, taking into account the zero bound constraint for interest rates.We find that effects of policy and supply side shocks differ significantly from the 'normal' situation if one of the countries is in the 'liquidity trap', ie if the interest rate is constrained by the zero bound.Being in the liquidity trap amplifies the domestic effects of fiscal policy, but mitigates its spillover to abroad.Changing the long run inflation target, which does not have international spillovers in the normal case, does have effects abroad if the country where the target is changed is in a temporary liquidity trap.The effects of supply shocks are also very different in the liquidity trap case compared to the normal case. Key words: zero bound, liquidity trap, international spillovers, edge JEL classification numbers: F42, F47
  • Ronkainen, Vesa (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. E 44
    1 Introduction 11 1.1 Motivation 11 1.2 Pension insurance and riskmanagement 12 1.3 Solvency II 15 1.4 Value-at-Risk (VaR) 18 1.5 Insurancemodeling 19 2 Equity index model 23 2.1 Data on equity returns 23 2.2 Model specification and preliminary estimation 29 2.3 Parameter uncertainty via Markov Chain Monte-Carlo 35 2.4 Simulation of future equity returns 38 3 Bond index model 44 3.1 Mediumtermbond index data 45 3.2 Reviewof interest ratemodeling approaches 48 3.3 Model specification and estimation 51 3.4 Parameter uncertainty 57 4 Mortality model 66 4.1 Introduction 66 4.2 Data 67 4.3 Review of the Lee-Cartermodel 69 4.4 Parameter uncertainty in the Lee-Carter model 73 4.5 Gender-specificmortality 77 4.6 The local bilinearmodel 83 5 Dependence modeling 88 5.1 Introduction 88 5.2 Model structure 90 5.3 Model specification 92 5.4 Simulation 94 6 Pension insurance applications 94 6.1 Introduction 94 6.2 Annuity premium and risk analysis for a cohort aged 65 95 6.3 Annuity premium and risk analysis for multiple cohorts 106 6.4 Annuities fromthe customer's point of view 109 7 Discussion 113 8 Appendix 124 8.1 Model implementation example 124