Browsing by Subject "small open economy"

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  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2019
    Published in Journal of International Economics 2021; 131; July https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103480
    We study macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well-identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock had a significant effect on Finnish output. While the direct trade channel effect was rather moderate, the shock led to significant tightening of financial conditions. It was therefore endogenously amplified due to the propagation through the domestic financial sector. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all-out economic crisis. It can account for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990 − 1993). The crisis was triggered and prolonged by the meltdown of the overheated financial and banking sectors since 1989. We show that the financial system remained a major independent source of shocks throughout the depression.
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2021)
    Journal of International Economics July
    Published in BoF DP 9/2019 http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:bof-201906051219
    We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.
  • Kilponen, Juha; Orjasniemi, Seppo; Ripatti, Antti; Verona, Fabio (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2016
    Revised version of the paper and updated zip file published in April 2020.
    This paper presents Aino 2.0 – the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model currently used at the Bank of Finland for forecasting and policy analysis. The paper provides a detailed theoretical description of the model, its estimation and how it can be used to interpret the evolution of the Finnish economy between 1995 and 2014, including the rise and fall of the electronics industry, the global financial crisis, and the stagnant growth performance since the end of the financial crisis.
  • Silvo, Aino; Verona, Fabio (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2020
    In this paper we present Aino 3.0, the latest vintage of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used at the Bank of Finland for policy analysis. Aino 3.0 is a small-open economy DSGE model at the intersection of the recent literatures on so-called TANK (“Two-Agent New Keynesian”) and MONK (“Mortgages in New Keynesian”) models. It aims at capturing the most relevant macro-financial linkages in the Finnish economy and provides a rich laboratory for the analysis of various macroeconomic and macroprudential policies. We show how the availability of a durable consumption good (housing), on the one hand, and the presence of credit-constrained households, on the other hand, affect the transmission of key macroeconomic and financial shocks. We also illustrate how these new transmission channels affect model dynamics compared to the previous model vintage (the Aino 2.0 model of Kilponen et al., 2016).