Browsing by Subject "taloudelliset kriisit"

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  • Bank of Finland (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The worst-case scenario in the corona spring did not materialise, but we will still need stamina for the long haul 3 Forecast tables for 2020–2022 (June 2020) 7
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2019
    Published in Journal of International Economics 2021; 131; July
    We study macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well-identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock had a significant effect on Finnish output. While the direct trade channel effect was rather moderate, the shock led to significant tightening of financial conditions. It was therefore endogenously amplified due to the propagation through the domestic financial sector. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all-out economic crisis. It can account for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990 − 1993). The crisis was triggered and prolonged by the meltdown of the overheated financial and banking sectors since 1989. We show that the financial system remained a major independent source of shocks throughout the depression.
  • Gulan, Adam (2021)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Blog
    What are the economic causes and consequences of large trade disruptions? Are they able to unleash a full-scale economic crisis? In recent years, the news has been full of events such as the US-China trade war, Brexit and even the collapse of tourism services exports in southern Europe following the outbreak of COVID-19. Finland has its own unique and still recent experience from the early 1990s, when the Soviet Union withdrew from the clearing trade agreement in December 1990.
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2021)
    Journal of International Economics July
    Published in BoF DP 9/2019
    We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.
  • Mäki-Fränti, Petri; Vanhala, Juuso (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The corona pandemic and the related lockdown measures have led to a strong contraction in business turnover and weakening of profitability, particularly in the service industries. If the profitability crisis persists, it will turn into a liquidity crisis and the risk of corporate bankruptcies will increase. Companies can, to some extent, adjust to the decline in turnover by cutting costs, for example by decreasing purchase volumes and by negotiating reductions to other cost items, such as rents. With the help of temporary lay-offs, companies can even adjust staff expenditure rapidly, if necessary.
  • Bonin, John P.; Louie, Dana (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 31/2015
    Our objective is to examine empirically the behavior of foreign banks regarding real loan growth during a financial crisis for a set of countries in which these banks dominate the banking sectors due primarily to having taken over large existing former state-owned banks. The eight countries are among the most developed in Emerging Europe, their banking sectors having been modernized by the beginning of the time period.We consider a data period that includes an initial credit boom (2004 – 2007) followed by the global financial crisis (2008 & 2009) and the onset of the Eurozone crisis (2010). Our main innovations with respect to the existing literature on banking during the financial crisis are to include explicit consideration of exchange rate dynamics and to separate foreign banks into two categories, namely, subsidiaries of the Big 6 European MNBs and all other foreign-controlled banks. Our results show that bank lending was impacted adversely by the crisis but that the two types of foreign banks behaved differently. The Big 6 banks remained committed to the region in that their lending behavior was not different from that of domestic banks corroborating the notion that these countries are a “second home market” for these banks. Contrariwise, the other foreign banks were primarily responsible for fueling the credit boom prior to the crisis but then “cut and ran” by decreasing their lending appreciably during the crisis. Our results also indicate different bank behavior in countries with flexible exchange rate regimes from those in the Eurozone. Hence, we conclude that both innovations matter in empirical work on bank behavior during a crisis in the region and may, by extension, be relevant to other small countries in which banking sectors are dominated by foreign financial institutions.
  • Mäki-Fränti, Petri; Obstbaum, Meri (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2018
    The protraction of the recession following the financial crisis weakened Finland's growth potential, while population ageing and the accumulation of public debt continue to weigh on growth prospects. In spite of the economy's recent recovery, long-term growth is expected to remain below its pre-crisis level, averaging 1.5% per annum over 2026–2040.
  • Paloviita, Maritta; Ikonen, Pasi (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2016
    The aim of this study is to explore budget planning in the euro area countries in 2004-2014. Our analyses are based on annual real-time data from the IMF World Economic Outlook publications. As forecasts made by different institutions are strongly correlated, our dataset reasonably reflects information available for policy makers in real-time. We examine whether real-time forecasts of overall budget balance, real GDP growth and output gap have been systematically biased. We also analyse forecast accuracy of potential output growth, which we construct using different vintages of real-time data. Our results indicate systematic biases in forecasts. Further, we study how real-time macroeconomic conditions affect budget planning. For comparison, we also consider how ex post economic conditions and ex post budget balance developments are related. We find robust evidence of mean reversion in budget balances, in both real-time and revised data. Mean reversion is related only to negative budget balances, and it is systematically stronger with respect to revised information. Finally, we analyse errors in budget balance forecasts. We provide robust evidence that revisions to current budget balance have contributed to errors in budget balance forecasts. We also find that forecasted macroeconomic conditions (potential output growth and real GDP growth) and their revisions have affected errors in budget balance forecasts. Overall, our results indicate that real-time uncertainty and revisions materially affect budget planning.
  • Kortelainen, Mika; Lindblad, Annika; Obstbaum, Meri; Schmöller, Michaela (2020)
    Euro & talous 3/2020
    Maailmantalouden näkymät heikkenivät keväällä, kun koronavirus levisi pandemiaksi. Merkittävät rajoitukset liikkumiseen, liiketoimintaan ja kanssakäymiseen ovat heikentäneet kasvun edellytyksiä laajalti samalla kun niin kulutusta kuin investointejakin vaikeuttaa viruksen aiheuttama epävarmuus. Lyhyen aikavälin indikaattorit kertovat Suomen, Ruotsin ja Saksan talouksien äkillisestä ja kohtalaisen samanaikaisesta heikentymisestä maaliskuussa. Toukokuun aikana korkean frekvenssin indikaattoreissa on nähty orastavia piristymisen merkkejä, mutta epävarmuus on suurta ja toipuminen tulee olemaan hidasta.
  • Jokivuolle, Esa; Virén, Matti (2017)
    Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja 4/2017
    Suomen pankkikriisi ja sen syventämä suuri lama 1990-luvun alussa on vakavuudessaan opettavainen tarina siitä, miten pankkisektori ja koko talous voi joutua ennakoimattoman suuriin vaikeuksiin yrityssektorin huonon rahoitusrakenteen, ylivelkaantumisen, valuuttakurssien vaihtelun ja varallisuushintojen romahduksen seurauksena. Vuonna 2007 alkanut kansainvälinen finanssikriisi jälkimaininkeineen jätti kovin pienet seurausvaikutukset Suomen pankkisektoriin. Se viittaa siihen, että Suomen yritys- ja pankkisektorin taseet ovat nyt olennaisesti paremmassa kunnossa kestämään talouden häiriöitä kuin 25 vuotta aikaisemmin. Rahaliitto on muuttanut tilannetta. Varoituksen sana on silti paikallaan. Siinä missä yrityssektorin tilanne on parempi kuin vuonna 1990, kotitalouksien velkaantuneisuus on kasvanut. Nykyään kotitalouksien velat aiheuttavat suurimman osan pankkien järjestämättömistä saatavista.
  • Gulan, Adam (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2018
    Since the Global Financial Crisis, academic economists and policymakers have had to deal with uncomfortable questions about the quality of their models and the state of macroeconomics as a profession. This note offers a summary of this discussion, focusing on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and its underpinnings. This class of models reflects both theoretical advances and perennial modeling challenges. While DSGE modeling developed in times of scarce micro data and limited computational resources, it has much room for improvement given progress along these dimensions and advances in other branches of economics. Key tasks on the to-do-list for model improvement include the modeling on the financial sector, departures from the representative agent and rationality, as well as clarification of the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique. The framework is likely to remain a major research and policy tool, although its limitations call for greater robustness, validation and open recognition of uncertainty in drawing real-life quantitative conclusions.
  • Rahoitustarkastus (2008)
    Rahoitustarkastus tiedottaa 3/2008
    Suomen pankkisektorin vakaus vielä vankalla pohjalla, mutta rahoitusmarkkinoiden häiriötila lisää epävarmuutta Valvottavien toimintaympäristö Pankeilla ennätystulokset - kasvu kuitenkin taittui Suomalaiset pankit ovat vakavaraisia Luottokannan kasvuvauhti ylitti edellisvuoden tason, yritysten ja kotitalouksien ongelmaluotot lisääntyneet Pankkien varainhankinnan haasteet jatkuvat Pankkisektorin korkoriskit ovat säilyneet maltillisina Sijoituspalveluihin lisää toimijoita Rahastomarkkinoiden kehitys muutti suuntaa
  • Rahoitustarkastus (2008)
    Rahoitustarkastus tiedottaa 7/2008
    Rahoitusmarkkinakriisillä välillisiä vaikutuksia myös suomalaisiin pankkeihin Taloudellisen toimintaympäristön näkymät heikkenevät, kun rahoitusmarkkinoiden levottomuus jatkuu Pankkien stressilaskelmat elokuulta 2008 Sijoitus- ja palkkiotuottojen vähentyminen käänsi pankkien kannattavuuden laskuun Suomalaisten pankkien vakavaraisuus heikkeni Luottojen kysyntä jatkunut vielä voimakkaana, viitteitä luottokannan laadun heikkenemisestä olemassa Suomalaisten pankkien likviditeetti kestää markkinahäiriön Pankkisektorin korkoriskit alhaiset Sijoituspalveluyritysten toimintaympäristö haasteellinen Rahastoyhtiöiden pitkään jatkunut nousu taittui Rahoitusmarkkinoiden häiriötilanteen vaikutus Suomessa rekisteröityihin sijoitusrahastoihin Karkaako mopo käsistä?
  • Obstbaum, Meri; Sariola, Mikko; Viertola, Hannu; Lindblad, Annika; Nuutilainen, Riikka; Pönkä, Harri; Kokkinen, Arto; Jalasjoki, Pirkka (2020)
    Bank of Finland Bulletin. Analysis
    The corona pandemic will drive the Finnish economy into recession this year along with the rest of the world. The depth of the recession is so far very difficult to assess, as it is not yet known how the corona pandemic will develop from now on, what measures will be taken to fight the pandemic and what economic policy measures will be put in place to mitigate the effects of the recession.
  • Bonthuis, Boele; Jarvis, Valerie; Vanhala, Juuso (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2015
    This paper analyses euro area Beveridge curves at the euro area aggregate and country level over the past 25 years. Using an autoregressive distributed lag model we find a significant outward shift in the euro area Beveridge curve since the onset of the crisis, but considerable heterogeneity at country level. We test for factors underlying these developments using the local projections method of Jordà (2005). Skill mismatch, high shares of workers in the construction sector, as well as high pre-crisis financial slack and home ownership rates appear strong determinants of outward shifts in Beveridge curves in response to a negative shock. Higher female participation rates mitigate these effects. Keywords: Beveridge curve, crisis, mismatch, unemployment, labour shortages, vacancies
  • Kortelainen, Mika; Lindblad, Annika; Obstbaum, Meri; Schmöller, Michaela (2020)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2020
    The outlook for the world economy deteriorated in the spring as the coronavirus (COVID-19) developed into a pandemic. Significant re-strictions on movement, business and social interaction have greatly weakened growth potential, while consumption and investment are both being depressed by the uncertainty raised by the virus. Short-term indicators point to a sudden and fairly simultaneous weakening of the Finnish, Swedish and German economies in March. During May, high-frequency indicators showed early signs of picking up, but uncertainty remains high and the recovery will be slow.
  • Obstbaum, Meri; Sariola, Mikko; Viertola, Hannu; Lindblad, Annika; Nuutilainen, Riikka; Pönkä, Harri; Kokkinen, Arto; Jalasjoki, Pirkka (2020)
    Euro & talous. Analyysi
    Koronapandemia ajaa Suomen talouden muun maailmantalouden mukana taantumaan kuluvana vuonna. Taantuman syvyyttä on toistaiseksi hyvin hankalaa arvioida, koska vielä ei tiedetä, miten koronapandemia tulee kehittymään tästä eteenpäin, minkälaisilla toimilla pandemiaa vastaan taistellaan ja minkälaisia talouspoliittisia toimia otetaan käyttöön taantuman vaikutusten lievittämiseksi.
  • Willman, Alpo (1992)
    Suomen Pankki. B = Bank of Finland. B 46
    Preface 5 1 Introduction 9 2 A Survey of the Literature on Balance-of-Payments Crises 11 2.1 A balance-of-payments crisis in the F-G model 11 2.2 Extensions of the analysis and further results 13 2.2.1 Balance-of-payments crises in intertemporal. optimization models 15 2.2.2 The minimum level of net foreign reserves 17 2.2.3 Balance-of-payments crises and devaluation 19 2.2.4 Imperfect foresight and balance-of-payments crises 20 Stochastic models of balance-of- payments crises 20 Uncertainty in deterministic models of balance-of-payments. crises 22 2.2.5 Stabilization policies and balance-of- payments crises 25 2.2.6 Capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability and balance-of-payments crises 27 2.2.7 Real output, prices and wages and balance-of-payments crises 28 2.2.8 Other extensions of the analysis 30 3 Summaries of the Papers 31 3.1 Why there is a lower bound on the central bank's foreign reserves 32 3.2 Speculative attacks on the currency with uncertain monetary policy reactions 35 3.3 Balance-of-payments crises and monetary policy reactions in a model with imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds 37 3.4 Devaluation expectations and speculative attacks on the currency 39 3.5 The collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime with sticky wages and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign bonds 42 Notes 45 References 47 Appendix 52
  • Kiviniemi, Arttu; Arala, Mika; Sinersalo, Mikko (2021)
    Valvottavien taloudellinen tila ja riskit 14.9.2021
    Suomen finanssisektorin pääriskeinä arvopaperimarkkinoiden riskihinnoittelun äkilliset muutokset ja pankkien luottoriskien realisoituminen 1 Suomen talous elpyy ripeästi 2 Talouskehityksen alasuuntaiset riskit edelleen koholla – kotitalouksien korkea velkaantuneisuus heikentää kriisinsietokykyä 5 Sijoittajille kuluva vuosi on ollut varsin suotuisa 7 Osakemarkkina on jatkanut tasaista nousua 7 Euroopassa korot pysyneet matalina 8
  • Kiviniemi, Arttu; Groschup, Torsten; Taskinen, Sinikka; Risku, Marjo (2021)
    Valvottavien taloudellinen tila ja riskit 14.9.2021
    Suomen pankkisektorin tappionsieto- ja luotonmyöntökyky pysynyt vahvana 2 Kaikki suomalaispankit täyttävät kesäkuussa voimaan astuneen vähimmäisomavaraisuusastevaatimuksen 3 Suomalaispankkien ongelmaluotot pysyneet maltillisella tasolla 4 Luottoriskit kohonneet pandemiasta eniten kärsineillä palvelutoimialoilla – näiden toimialojen osuus pankkien yritysluotoista kuitenkin pieni 6 Kiinteistösektoriluottojen laatu pysynyt vakaana 8 Suomen pankkisektorin kriisinsietokyky eurooppalaista keskitasoa vahvempi 11 Pankkisektorin liiketulos vahvistui arvonalentumisten laskun ja tuottojen kasvun siivittämänä 13 Tuotot kasvoivat laaja-alaisesti 13 Suomen pankkisektorin kannattavuus pysynyt pandemian aikana eurooppalaista keskitasoa vahvempana 15 Suomalaispankkien maksuvalmiusasema pysynyt vahvana 17 Talletusten ja keskuspankkirahoituksen kasvu pienentänyt joukkovelkakirjarahoituksen tarvetta 19 Kaikki suomalaispankit täyttävät kesäkuussa voimaan astuneen pysyvän varainhankinnan vaatimuksen 20 Suomalaispankkien markkinariskit maltillisella tasolla 20