Browsing by Subject "talousarviot"

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  • Vlasov, Sergey (2013)
    BOFIT Online 9/2013
    This study examines Russia's short- and long run fiscal sustainability. The study reveals the possible risks, if fiscal sustainability deteriorates on the general government budget level. By employing a special fiscal stress index, Russia's public finances are evaluated as sustainable in the short run. In the long run, the study analyzes advantages and limitations of the new fiscal rules, compares the new rules with the previous fiscal rules suspended during the financial crisis and discusses the possibilities for further development of the fiscal rules in Russia. The official long run socio-economic development forecast is employed for the estimates. The analysis suggests that comparing to 2012 government revenue will decrease by 7.5 p.p. of GDP by 2050, explained by the drop in oil-and-gas revenue by 8.7 p.p. of GDP. Government expenditure will decrease by 6.0 p.p. of GDP. The value of government net worth will become negative by 2050 but on the infinite projection horizon should stabilize on the safe level close to -15% of GDP. Keywords: fiscal sustainability, fiscal stress index, fiscal rules, general government budget, budget forecast
  • Elomaa, Arto (1988)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 62 ; 12 ; December
  • Rasi, Chris-Marie (1992)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 66 ; 10 ; October
  • Rasi, Chris-Marie (1994)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 68 ; 10 ; October
  • Korhonen, Vesa (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 10/2020
    This paper traces the development of real volumes of expenditures and revenues of Russia’s consolidated government budget (combined federal, regional and local budgets, as well as state social funds, but excluding inter-budget transfers). Novel budget deflators are built from relevant prices and structures of the government budget’s expenditures to assess: (1) how the government has performed the basic twin role of (A) supplying services and goods, including spending on individual functional branches of the government budget sector, and (B) providing social support; and (2) how government budget spending has impacted demand in the economy. Regarding the supply of services and goods, the real volume of government budget spending for acquiring the inputs remained well below its 2009 peak during most of the 2010s. This decline reflects, in particular, the major increases in nominal wages in the government budget sector. Real spending on the supplying government sector branches have moved along partly different paths. In the task of providing social support, the spending allotment increased in real terms until the middle of 2010s, then levelled off. Looking at the impact of government spending on demand in the economy, the real spending volume rose almost continuously before plateauing in 2013. The volume declined considerably in 2015, staying at the lower level until 2019.
  • Haaparanta, Pertti (1988)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/1988
    It is shown that the Dixit-Norman argument for the creation of an optimal customs union without lump sum transfers presupposes either that there exists a joint fiscal authority in the union or that lump sum transfers between national governments are possible. A necessary and sufficient condition for the decentralized implementation of the optimal union is derived. This condition is related to the old discussion of trade creation vs. trade diversion. The other contribution of the paper is to extend the Dixit-Norman argument to customs unions with factor mobility i.e. to common markets.
  • Tuominen, Heikki (1968)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 42 ; 6 ; June
  • Paloviita, Maritta (2012)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 34/2012
    Published in Research in Applied Economics ; 6 ; 1 ; 15-37 ; https://doi.org/10.5296/rae.v6i1.4515
    This study explores discretionary fiscal policies in the euro area during the time of monetary union (EMU). Ex ante budget plans and policy changes during budget implementation are investigated using real time data from the OECD Economic Outlook publications. The particular focus of the study is on fiscal adjustment to the recent financial crisis and the subsequent global recession. Estimated fiscal policy reaction functions indicate that in the EMU period ex ante fiscal plans in the euro area have basically been long-term oriented and counter-cyclical. In the course of the budgetary year, policies have typically been adjusted due to data revisions and new business cycle information. The crisis had a clear impact on discretionary policies. The periphery countries clearly adjusted their policies already in the budgetary planning stage, but other countries mainly reacted to the crisis during budget implementation. We provide evidence that short-term counter-cyclical fiscal policies may not have been consistent with sound and sustainable public finances. In order to maintain fiscal discipline and avoid excessive indebtedness, careful monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances and reliable as well as more accurate forecasts are needed. Overall, longer term fiscal policy orientation and continuous monitoring of the budgeting processes are crucial in good fiscal governance. Keywords: fiscal policy, real time data, planning stage, implementation stage, cyclical sensitivity, economic crisis JEL classification numbers: E62, E32
  • Paloviita, Maritta; Ikonen, Pasi (2016)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2016
    The aim of this study is to explore budget planning in the euro area countries in 2004-2014. Our analyses are based on annual real-time data from the IMF World Economic Outlook publications. As forecasts made by different institutions are strongly correlated, our dataset reasonably reflects information available for policy makers in real-time. We examine whether real-time forecasts of overall budget balance, real GDP growth and output gap have been systematically biased. We also analyse forecast accuracy of potential output growth, which we construct using different vintages of real-time data. Our results indicate systematic biases in forecasts. Further, we study how real-time macroeconomic conditions affect budget planning. For comparison, we also consider how ex post economic conditions and ex post budget balance developments are related. We find robust evidence of mean reversion in budget balances, in both real-time and revised data. Mean reversion is related only to negative budget balances, and it is systematically stronger with respect to revised information. Finally, we analyse errors in budget balance forecasts. We provide robust evidence that revisions to current budget balance have contributed to errors in budget balance forecasts. We also find that forecasted macroeconomic conditions (potential output growth and real GDP growth) and their revisions have affected errors in budget balance forecasts. Overall, our results indicate that real-time uncertainty and revisions materially affect budget planning.
  • Törnqvist, Erik (1966)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 40 ; 1 ; January
  • Elonen, Heikki U. (1966)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 40 ; 9 ; September
  • Vartiainen, Henri J. (1968)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 42 ; 8 ; August
  • Paloviita, Maritta; Kinnunen, Helvi (2011)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2011
    Using real time data from the OECD and fiscal policy reaction functions, this study explores euro area fiscal policies since the late 1990s. Both iscretionary plans for the budget year and policy changes during budget implementation stages are investigated. The main focus is on the fiscal adjustment to the recent financial and economic crisis. The results suggest that during the monetary union (EMU) euro area planned fiscal policies have been long-term oriented and countercyclical. In the implementation stages new policy decisions have been made as a response to unexpected economics developments. We provide evidence that the crisis had a clear impact on discretionary policies. Due to the increased uncertainty, the crisis emphasized the impact of cyclical developments on fiscal planning. In the implementation stages, huge forecast errors made in budget planning were observed. As a consequence, new decisions were made in order to alleviate negative impacts of the crisis on the euro area economies.
  • Paloviita, Maritta (2012)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 35/2012
    This study explores real time uncertainty in euro area fiscal policies since the late 1990s. Using real time data from the OECD Economic Outlook publications we investigate the impact of real time uncertainty on fiscal planning and debt accumulation separately for two country groups in the euro area: countries in geographical periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) and other euro area countries (Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany and the Netherlands). The results indicate that real time uncertainty substantially affects fiscal planning. Ex ante fiscal plans have generally been long-term oriented and counter-cyclical in the euro area, but in the periphery countries policies have been more sensitive to economic cycles and less long-term oriented than in the other countries. We find evidence that high indebtedness in the periphery countries cannot be explained by short-term pro-cyclical ex ante fiscal planning. Instead, high initial debt ratios, policy changes after the budget-planning stage and cumulated macroeconomic imbalances have contributed substantially to accumulated debt ratios. Overall, reliable statistics, balanced macroeconomic developments and longer-term policy orientation, which are central in the new EU fiscal framework, are crucial for sound and sustainable public finances. Keywords: fiscal policy, debt accumulation, real time data, cyclical sensitivity, economic crisis JEL classification numbers: E62, E32
  • Rautava, Jouko (1996)
    Suomen Pankki. A 95
    Abstract 5 Preface 7 Introduction by Jouko Rautava 11 Financial Factors and Economic Development - Russian Dilemmas by Jouko Rautava 25 Monetary Policy in Russia by Glenn Hoggarth 53 Russian Banking Legislation and Supervision by Juhani Laurila 83 Russian Commercial Banks: a Banker's View by Ilkka Salonen 119 Capital Markets in Russia: Putting the Cart Before the Horse? by Lev M.Gelman and Alexandra G.Morozova 145 Payment Arrears and Russian Reforms by Inkeri Hirvensalo 167
  • Pesola, Jarmo (1987)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 61 ; 12 ; December
  • (1925)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 5 ; 4 ; April
  • (1925)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 5 ; 12 ; December
  • (1926)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 6 ; 12 ; December