Browsing by Subject "tulevaisuus"

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  • Saarenheimo, Tuomas (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 2/2005
    The median age of the global population is presently increasing by nearly three months every year.Over the next couple of decades, almost every country in the world is set to experience an unprecedented increase in the share of elderly population.This development has the potential to fundamentally affect the functioning of economic and financial systems globally.This study concentrates on the effects of ageing on the evolution of global interest rates and financial flows.The study uses a 73-cohort general equilibrium overlapping generations model of five major economic areas (USA, EU-15, Japan, China, and India).Utilising actual population data and UN population projections, the model yields predictions for major economic and financial variables up to 2050.The model predicts a decline in global equilibrium real interest rates over the next two decades, but the size of the decline depends crucially on the future evolution of public pension benefits.If the present generosity of pension systems is maintained - leading to a steep increase in the cost of the pension systems - the maximum decline of interest rates is projected to be about 70 basis points from present levels.If pension benefits are reduced to offset the increasing cost pressures, the decline in global equilibrium interest rates can be much larger, while increases in the retirement age work in the opposite direction.The results do not anticipate a 'financial market meltdown' - a collapse in asset prices associated with the retirement of the baby-boomers - predicted by some.On the contrary, bond prices should fare fairly well over the next three decades.The main reason for this is that increasing life expectancy at retirement creates a need for higher retirement saving - in the future, people will want to retire wealthier than they do today.This trend more than offsets the negative effect of the retirement of baby-boomers on asset demand.Key words: Ageing, real interest rates, financial flows, public pension systems JEL classification numbers: J11, E44
  • Korhonen, Kari (2004)
    Euroopan unionissa panostetaan siihen, että arvopaperikauppojen selvitys- ja toimitusprosessit toimisivat tulevaisuudessa nykyistä kitkattomammin ja että ulkomaisten arvopapereiden hankintakustannukset pienenisivät.Tämä edellyttää suuria rakennemuutoksia näihin prosesseihin ja sääntelyn modernisoimista. Miksi arvopaperikaupan selvitysja toimitusprosessit ovat tärkeitä?
  • Kokkinen, Arto; Obstbaum, Meri; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2021)
    BoF Economics Review 10/2021
    Population ageing constitutes a central challenge to Finland. Understanding the Finnish economy’s likely future trajectory and the key sources of growth is important for the design of policies to counteract these adverse long-term trends. For this purpose, we develop a novel long-run forecast framework based on enodogenous growth theory with human and fixed capital. A central result is a pronounced projected decrease in human capital, substantially weighing on the long-run GDP outlook for Finland. To revert these trends substantial policy efforts are needed. Unless the decline in human capital can be prevented by increasing fertility, skilled immigration, education or employment, even reaching a growth rate of one per cent after the 2040s would require significant measures to increase new fixed capital investments with new technology.
  • Woo, Wing Thye (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2011
    The 6th Plenum of the 16th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) concluded on October 11, 2006, with the commitment to establish a harmonious society by 2020. The obvious implication from this commitment is that the present major social, economic and political trends are not leading to a harmonious society or, at least, not leading to a harmonious society fast enough. Analytically, if the Chinese economy is depicted as a speeding car, there are three classes of failures (a) a hardware failure from the breakdown of an economic mechanism, a development that is analogous to the collapse of the chassis of the car; (b) a software failure from a flaw in governance that creates frequent widespread social disorders that disrupt production economy-wide and discourage private investment, a situation similar to a car crash that resulted from a fight among the people inside the speeding car; and (c) a power supply failure from hitting either a natural limit or an externally-imposed limit, a situation that is akin, respectively, to the car running out of gas or to the car smashing into a barrier erected by an outsider. For hardware failure we discuss the possible weakening of China's fiscal position generated by the repeated recapitalization of the state banks. For software failure, we discuss possible social disorder caused by outmoded governance. And for power supply failure, we discuss the possible trade disputes from China s chronic trade imbalances and the physical constraints posed by China s rapidly deteriorating natural environment.
  • Bank of Finland (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2015
    The effects of the Government’s economic policy programme are assessed separately in this alternative scenario, as the programme is not included in the baseline forecast. The consolidation measures, if carried through, will markedly strengthen the public finances. On account of the measures, growth in the general government debt to GDP ratio will come to a halt in 2019. The effects on economic growth essentially depend on whether cost-competitiveness can also be improved. Despite the consolidation measures, the general government debt ratio resumes growth over the longer term.
  • Leinonen, Harry (2001)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 75 ; 2
  • Haaparanta, Pertti; Puhakka, Mikko (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2004
    We introduce endogenous time preference via investment in patience (farsightedness) in an overlapping generations growth model to study development traps.There is no investment in patience, if the economy is very poor, while if it is wealthy enough there is always such investment.We explore the conditions for the existence of the development trap, and study in detail a robust example of an economy with traps.It does not exist, if the economy's total factor productivity is large enough.Our results illustrate the complementarity between physical investment and investment in farsightedness.Our model may also explain why economic growth is affected by initial conditions.In addition we show that increased international capital mobility does not necessarily help economies to escape from development traps. JEL classification: I30, O11, O16 Keywords:development trap, overlapping generations
  • Suomen Pankki (2015)
    Euro & talous 3/2015
  • Snellman, Jussi (2000)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 19/2000
    During the 1990s the availability of location-specific retail payment services in Finland declined substantially, but at the same time there was a surge of development of self-service methods. These new methods, which make use eg of mobile phones and the Internet, dramatically increased the availability of payment services that are not tied to location.More traditional forms of payment still exist; for example, the use of cash remains significant.In Europe there are marked differences between countries with respect to the use of different payment methods. Generally, the use of cashless payment instruments has increased during the last ten years, but it seems that payment patterns are still not converging to similar structures. The development of the Finnish retail payment system has long roots, and several factors - eg the salary bank arrangement of the 1960s and the severe banking crisis of the early 1990s - have influenced the development of the current Finnish payment system. In the retail payments area, new technologies are developing rapidly.The success of new forms of payment (based eg on mobile phones) in gaining general acceptance may depend on changes in the nature of consumption.If customer demand increasingly shifts toward virtual goods and services, the demand for new types of payment methods such as electronic money may increase substantially. Keywords: retail payments, electronification, ATMs, Internet banking
  • Bank of Finland (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2015
  • Girardin, Eric; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. (2010)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2010
    Published in Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 30, Issue 7, Nov. 2011, pp. 622-643
    In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real Gross Regional Product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior and Coast) is allowed for. We find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps substantially improve the forecast performance compared to the benchmark models estimated for each of the provinces separately. It is also shown that the effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared forecast error is about 8% at the 1-year horizon and exceeds 25% at the 13- and 14-year horizon).
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Kostiainen, Juho (2010)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 1/2010
    Julkisen talouden kestävyyteen tähtäävä strategia on perustunut työllisyysasteen nostamiseen ja rahoituspuskureiden kerryttämiseen hyvissä ajoin ennen 2030-lukua, jolloin huoltosuhde heikkenee nopeimmin. Tavoitteena on ollut hankkia valtiolle velkaantumisvaraa ja pidentää työuria, jotta väestön ikääntymisen kasvattamat julkiset menot voitaisiin rahoittaa ilman verotuksen kiristymistä. Erityisenä tavoitteena on ollut panostaa julkisen talouden tuottavuuteen, jolloin kuntien ja valtion palveluja voitaisiin tuottaa aiempaa edullisemmin. Strategian lähtökohtana on ollut, että julkinen sektori tulisi tarjoamaan myös pitkällä aikavälillä koulutus-, hyvinvointi- ja terveyspalvelut samantasoisina ja yhtä kattavina kuin tällä hetkellä. Tässä selvityksessä arvioidaan julkisen talouden tulevia haasteita kestävyyslaskelmalla, jota on täydennetty työmarkkinalohkolla ja talouden dynaamisilla vaikutuksilla. Tarkastelut täydentävät keväällä 2009 tehtyjä laskelmia, joiden mukaan taantuma lisää tuntuvasti julkisen talouden sopeuttamistarvetta.
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Korhonen, Iikka; Mattlin, Mikael; Nojonen, Matti; Mehrotra, Aaron; Rautava, Jouko (2010)
    BOFIT Online 4/2010
    Suomen Pankin Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT) järjesti lokakuussa 2010 kolmannen Kiinan taloutta käsittelevän tietoiskun. Tämän julkaisun artikkelit perustuvat tietoiskussa pidettyihin esitelmiin. Ensimmäinen kirjoitus analysoi Kiinan taloustilannetta BOFIT Kiina-ennusteen valossa ja kommentoi Kiinan vaikutusta Suomen ulkomaankauppaan. Toinen kirjoitus pohtii Kiinan työmarkkinoiden kehitystä ja valottaa erityisesti vapaan työvoimareservin määrää sekä palkkakehitystä koskevaa keskustelua. Kolmannessa artikkelissa tutkitaan sitä, mitä yhteistä ja mitä eroja Kiinan valuuttakurssipolitiikassa ja juanin kehityksessä on verrattuna Japanin jenin ja Korean wonin historiaan. Kirjoituksessa käsitellään myös tärkeäksi aiheeksi kohonnutta juanin kansainvälisen käytön lisääntymistä. Neljäs kirjoitus valottaa sitä, miten Kiinan sisäisessä keskustelussa nähdään erilaiset ajankohtaiset maailmantalouden hallintaa ja uudistuksia koskevat asiat. Se perustuu meneillään olevaan tutkimukseen, joka pohjaa laajaan kiinalaiseen lähdemateriaaliin. Viimeinen artikkeli pohdiskelee Kiinan pitemmän aikavälin kasvupotentiaalia ja siinä käsitellään mm. investointeja tutkimukseen ja tuotekehitykseen.
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso (2020)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Kiinan kommunistisen puolueen kokouksiin on harvoin kohdistunut yhtä paljon mielenkiintoa kuin lokakuun lopun 19. keskuskomitean viidenteen täysistuntoon.
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2013)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 3
    People of different age react in the labour market differently to cyclical trends and changes in social security and pension provision. The labour force participation rate for even same-age people has not remained unchanged over a long period of time. Cohorts born in the 1950s and 1960s and entering working life in the 1970s and 1980s have the highest labour force participation rate. However, the participation rate for younger people has begun to fall. Young people s absence from the labour market can in part be explained by longer times of study. But the weakness of the business cycle and tightness of the labour market are also reducing labour supply among young men, in particular. Structural change in the economy has increasingly gained momentum during the financial crisis, and the employment situation has deteriorated particularly in male-dominated industrial sectors. There is a risk that the labour market will face a generation of recession males in the same way as following the recession of the 1990s there were recession females , whose labour force participation rate remained lower than average for a long time.
  • Jyrkönen, Hanna (2004)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 27/2004
    Finnish payment methods have changed rapidly as payment cards have gained increasing popularity and have, to an extent, replaced cash.This article examines this phenomenon and the trends in cash and electronic payment methods in Finland.It starts with an introduction to the statistical data on different payment methods used at points of sale and their electronification, after which learning curve and dynamic regression models are employed to analyse changes in the share of cash payments.Finally, forecasts are presented for the future path of the cash-share.The data indicate that the use of cards, especially debit cards, has increased substantially.For example, in 1984 some 80% of total purchases (in value terms) were made with cash, whereas by 2002 the corresponding figure had dropped below 50%.Estimation results suggest that learning curve models are not suitable for explaining electronification of payment methods in Finland - at least at this stage - whereas the error correction model and its special-case partial adjustment model, coupled with independent explanatory variables, seem to do a better job.A forecast based on the latter indicates that electronification will continue in future and that by 2010 the cash-share of total value of point-of-sale payments will fall to less than 30%.Key words: retail payments, payment instruments, electronification JEL classification numbers: G20, G21, G28
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2011)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 3
    The reduction in the size of the labour force in response to the ageing of the population will impair the growth potential of the Finnish economy over future decades. Already the impending retirement of baby-boomers over the next few years threatens to reduce the labour force. Cohorts presently entering the labour market are clearly smaller than those reaching retirement age, and no major improvement in the demo-graphic balance is to be expected from immigration either, judging from the population projection of Statistics Finland. This change in population structure - unique both historically and by international standard - presents a huge challenge especially for the financing of general govern-ment expenditures. There is a threat of a long-term economic growth slowdown and mounting public expenditure. These developments have long been perceptible, and economic and structural policy actions have been taken to under-pin the supply of labour. Incentives built into the pension scheme and closure of pathways to early retirement, together with the adoption of tax policies aimed at growing the supply of labour, arc among the key measures to encourage people of working age to remain in the labour force for as long as possible. The higher labour force participation rate is also related to cohort-based trends, as well as to policy actions and business cycles. Participation in the labour force is influenced by a number of structural factors, including better working conditions, lower physical work load, better health conditions and a higher level of education. It is, for example, widely known that cohorts born in the 1940s are not as well-educated and healthy as younger cohorts. In step with the older cohorts being replaced by cohorts with higher levels of education and much longer life expectancies, the average labour force participation rate will rise. But it is also known that working career developments and labour market status over a whole working life may also be dependent on the cyclical situation prevailing at the time of labour market entry (path dependency). All of these factors may shape the pattern of labour supply in Finland.
  • Kemppainen, Kari (2016)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Tulevaisuuden ennustaminen on vaikeaa eikä maksamisen kehityksen ennustaminen ole tästä poikkeus. Uudet maksamisenkin mullistavat innovaatiot voivat tulla yllättäen puun takaa odottamattomistakin suunnista.
  • Suomen Pankki (2016)
    1 Esipuhe 3 Seppo Honkapohja, Suomen Pankki 2 Itseajavan auton lompakko ja lentolippuja ostava kello 5 Sirpa Nordlund, Mobey Forum 3 Me emme maksa 2020-luvulla 9 Heikki Kapanen, Nets 4 FinTech maksamisen murtajana 12 Mikko Riikkinen, Tampereen Yliopisto / ReDO-tutkimushanke 5 Maksaminen on paljon enemmän kuin transaktio 15 Pekka Puustinen, Ilmarinen 6 Maksamisen peikko menee piiloon 17 Lennu Keinänen, Paytrail 7 Maksaminen nyt, kohta ja myöhemmin sekä vähän siitä ympäriltä 19 Sami Karhunen, Solinor 8 Helppokäyttöiset ja kohtuulliset peruspankkipalvelut kuuluvat kaikille 23 Juha Beurling, Kuluttajaliitto 9 Maksutavat ja tottumukset muuttuvat hitaasti 28 Matti Räisänen, Kaupan liitto 10 Suomen Yrittäjien näkemyksiä liittyen maksamiseen 2020-luvulla 30 Petri Malinen, Suomen Yrittäjät 11 Maksaminen 2020-luvulla 32 Mikael Forss, Kela 12 Maksaminen jää mielekkäämpien asioiden taustalle 33 Piia-Noora Kauppi, Finanssialan Keskusliitto 13 Maksamisen maailma 2020-luvulla 36 Liisa Kanniainen, Nordea 14 Miten maksamme digitalisoituvassa maailmassa? 40 Jani Ristimäki, OP Ryhmä 15 Pankeilla mahdollisuus menestyä maksamisen murroksessa 44 Mervi Hammarberg ja Kai Koskela, Säästöpankkikeskus 16 2020-luvun maksamisratkaisut ja trendit 46 Ilkka Lähteenmäki, Anniina Heinonen, Arto Mattila ja Jarmo Heilakka, Danske Bank Suomi 17 Uudet maksutavat hyödyttävät yhteiskuntaa – tietyin reunaehdoin 48 Martti Hetemäki, Valtiovarainministeriö 18 Maksamisratkaisut 2020-luvulla, KKV:n näkökulma 51 Juhani Jokinen, Kilpailu- ja kuluttajavirasto 19 Miten maksamme 2020-luvulla? Valvojan näkökulma 54 Anne Nisén ja Markku Koponen, Finanssivalvonta
  • Sutela, Pekka (2008)
    Bofit. Focus/Opinion. Asiantuntijan näkemys 1/2008
    Vladimir Putinin esittämien linjausten mukaan Venäjän pitäisi olla vuonna 2020 maailman viidenneksi suurin talous, ilmeisesti Yhdysvaltain, Kiinan, Japanin ja Intian jälkeen. Näin se olisi Euroopan suurin yksittäinen kansantalous. Maan pitäisi samalla muuttua myös "parhaaksi paikaksi ihmisen elää". Äskeisessä linjapuheessaan Dmitri Medvedev esitti neljä i-kirjaimella alkavaa avainta tähän valoisaan tulevaisuuteen: instituutiot, innovaatiot, infrastruktuuri ja investoinnit. Puhe on saanut kovin myönteisen vastaanoton sekä näiden iskulauseiden että yleisen lain kunnioittamista ja liberaaleja sääntöjä painottavan sisältönsä takia. Asia ei ole aivan näin yksinkertainen, edes periaatteellisella tasolla. Nykyaikaisen taloudellisen kasvun teorian lähtökohdat auttavat sen havaitsemisessa.