Browsing by Subject "tulot"

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  • Suomela, Samuli (1976)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 50 ; 2 ; February
  • Solanko, Laura (2003)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2003
    This empirical note uses publicly available Goskomstat data to investigate income growth and convergence across Russian regions. Using data for 1992-2001, we find strong sigma divergence simultaneously with beta convergence. he results indicate that per capita income in Russian regions may be converging towards two separate steady states.The poorest regions seem to be converging among themselves, while growth experiences among other regions have been highly heterogeneous. Keywords: convergence, divergence, Russia, regions, growth.
  • Pääkkönen, Jenni (2009)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2009
    Published in Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Volume 10, Issue 1, February 2012, Pages 1-13
    This paper discusses growth differentials of Chinese provinces geared to agricultural activities and those focusing on industrial production over three decades of economic reform. Following trade theory and endogenous growth theory, we suggest that the fundamental differences between regions arise from their resource allocations at the start of reforms. Thus, capital-abundant regions have tended to specialize in industrial production, while the labor-abundant regions have concentrated on labor-intensive pro- duction (agriculture). Many of China.s agricultural provinces suffer from oversupplies of labor, which has led large numbers of people to migrate within the country to work in non-farming sectors of economy. We show that provinces with high shares of industrial production (the industrial club) have converged, and that agricultural provinces shifting to industrial production have been catching up to initially industrialized provinces. Provinces that have stayed with an agricultural strategy (the agricultural club) show no evidence of convergence and appear to have been left behind in terms of economic development. JEL Classi.cation: O17, O40, O57. Keywords: Growth, Agriculture, Convergence.
  • Voutilainen, Ville (2019)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2019
    Finnish household debt relative to income has grown significantly since the turn of the millennium. In future, excessive borrowing could be stemmed by, for example, restricting the amount of credit available to households relative to their levels of income
  • Rudanko, Leena (2000)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 23/2000
    This paper presents a new approach to modelling credit restrictions by considering uncertain access to the asset market.The asset market and the stochastic process governing access are considered fully exogenous and independent of income.The model generates stable debt trajectories for a broader array of interest rate levels than the one corresponding to the agent's rate of time preference.The agent exhibits excess sensitivity of consumption to current period income, even for low probabilities of constraints. Because this sensitivity is inversely related to the maturity of debt contracts, the availability of long-term debt contracts reduces the income-sensitivity of consumption.A very tractable approximative Euler equation for the model is presented.
  • Brunila, Anne (1997)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 6/1997
    This paper considers the effects of fiscal policy on private consumption in a framework that encompasses both the conventional (Keynesian) view of fiscal policy and the Ricardian debt neutrality hypothesis.The model is built on Blanchard's stochastic model of intertemporal optimization with finitely lived consumers.As an extension to the basic framework public consumption is explicitly incorporated in the model.The model nests also the excess sensitivity hypothesis whereby the role of current income on consumption can be investigated.Empirical analyses are based on annual data from ten EU countries covering the years 1961-1994 and use the nonlinear instrumental variable GMM estimator both in country-specific and panel estimations.The tests reject clearly the Ricardian debt neutrality for majority of the countries in the sample.Moreover, deviations from Ricardian neutrality seem to arise from excess sensitivity of consumption to current income rather than from a finite planning horizon on the part of consumers.The results also suggest that in the consumers' utility functions, government consumption and private consumption tend to be unrelated or complements rather than substitutes. Keywords: private consumption, private saving, current income, fiscal policy, planning horizon
  • Jonsson, Kerstin (1973)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 47 ; 3 ; March
  • Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2016)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2016
    The ability to predict future income is essential for the wellbeing of households. While there have been no major changes in Finnish households’ income uncertainty over the past 25 years or so, there would appear to be some ingrained differences across population groups. Income uncertainty has been higher for the less educated than for the highly educated, while risks to the income of the self-employed are high relative to their expected income development. Public transfers have moderated the risks associated with earnings development, notably for the less educated. The significance of public transfer schemes for levelling out income development becomes more apparent as the population ages, with a larger share of the population reliant on public transfers to make ends meet.
  • Sarlin, Peter; Ramsay, Bruce A. (2014)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2014
    This paper operationalizes early theoretical contributions of Hyman Minsky and applies these in the context of economic sectors and nations. Following the view of boom-bust asset cycles, depicted by the endogenous build-up of risks and their abrupt unraveling, Minsky highlighted the relationship between debt obligations and cash flows. While leverage is oftentimes linked to the vulnerability of a nation, and hence systemic risk, one less explored measure of leverage is the debt-to-cash flow ratio (Debt/CF). Cash flows certainly have a well-known, academically verified connection to the ability of corporations to service and repay corporate debt. This paper investigates whether the relationship between the flow of a nation's savings to its stock of total debt provides a means for understanding systemic risks. For a panel of 33 nations, we explore historic Debt/CF trends, as well as apply the same procedure to individual economic sectors. This assessment of systemic risk is arranged for presentation within a four-zone framework. In terms of an early-warning indicator, we show that the Debt/CF ratio e effectively stratifies systemic risks, and offers a useful platform toward macro-financial sustainability. Keywords: debt-to-cash flow, debt-to-gross saving, systemic risk, four-zone framework JEL codes: E210, F340, G010, H630
  • Francis, Bill; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Lingxiang (2015)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2015
    Published in Journal of Auditing, Accounting and Finance, Vol 31, Issue 2, 2016
    ​Prior studies of real-activity earnings management (REM) focus on earnings-inflating abnormal activities. We seek to establish the existence of downward REM by investigating several corporate events in which managers have incentives to temporarily deflate market valuations. Specifically, we focus on, and find downward REM before, share repurchases, management buyouts (MBOs), and CEO option awards. Large-sample evidence of downward REM is also found in our general analysis of earnings smoothing. Downward REM becomes much smaller or nonexistent when there is a lack of managerial incentives in those events, such as non-carry-through repurchases, incomplete MBOs, and unexpected option awards. Following the research design of Zang (2012), we find that various REM and AEM cost factors consistently influence the magnitude of downward REM and AEM around the three corporate events.
  • Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2011)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 5
    The debt ratio of Finnish households has grown steadily over the past decade and in 2011 stood at approximately 108% of disposable household income.' Despite the growth in the debt ratio, the low level of interest rates has enabled households to continue to service their loans, and the employment situation did not show any rapid deterioration even during the recess-ion of 2008-2009. There have actually been very few payment defaults by Finnish households, despite the growth in the debt ratio. The most heavily indebted house-holds could nevertheless be vulnerable co financial difficulties. Even a short period of unemployment, or an increase in housing loan interest rates, could force them to substantially reduce their accustomed level of consumption, with this being reflected in increased volatility in aggregate private consumption. This would in turn amplify cyclical volatility in the economy. Moreover, excessive levels of debt increase the risk of households defaulting on their payments, and in an extreme scenario household credit risks could endanger the stability of the entire financial system. More important than the average debt ratio is the way in which debt is distributed between households. High-income and wealthy households are better placed than low-income households to bear risks that are large not just in absolute euro terms, but also relative to house-hold income. The larger the amount of money left over after loan servicing costs, the easier it will be for a household to adjust its consumption in the event of a decline in income due, for instance, to unemployment.
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 5/2017
    Well-educated people typically earn more than those with a lower level of education. This article discusses the financial benefits of education when, in addition to earnings level, we also take into account the better employment prospects of people with higher education. A higher education degree would still appear to be a profitable investment, especially for men.
  • Hyytinen, Ari; Putkuri, Hanna (2012)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2012
    Published in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol 50, Issue 1, February 2018: 55-76 ; https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12453
    A unique Finnish household-level data from 1994 to 2009 allow us to measure how households financial expectations are related to the sub- sequent outcomes. We use the difference between the two to measure forecast errors and household optimism and link the errors to households´ borrowing behaviour. We find that households making greatest optimistic forecast errors carry greater levels of debt and are most likely to suffer from excessive debt loads (overindebtedness). They also are less attentive to forecast errors than their pessimistic counterparts when forming their expectations for a subsequent period JEL: D21, L20 Key words: forecast errors, ex ante optimism, borrowing
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2015)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 3/2015
    The longer working careers and higher earnings of those now retiring have caused a rising trend in earnings-related pensions. As this has been accompanied by a strong increase in unemployment expenditure and slow growth in aggregate income from wages and salaries on account of the recession, a growing number of households now depend on current transfers. Accordingly, household income and expenditure are now less dependent on the economic cycle and countercyclical policy. In addition, the impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand is reduced by the growing role of property income in financing consumption. Contrary to the life cycle hypothesis, elderly people’s savings rate has risen with age, and net wealth is highest amongst the elderly.
  • Topi, Jukka; Vauhkonen, Jukka (2017)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2017
    Finland has prepared for risks on residential mortgage loan markets by setting a maximum loan-to-value ratio for housing loans. In addition, preparations are currently underway for imposing minimum risk weights on housing loans granted by banks. On top of these, to curb borrowing it would be advisable to consider the adoption of tools that take household income into account, such as loan-to-income caps. In this article, we use simple examples to illustrate how such instruments could be deployed to restrain dangerous growth in lending for house purchase and household debt, but will not express an opinion on the superiority of one tool over the others. Different instruments supplement each other, and no individual tool can solve all problems.
  • Lindberg, Walter (1926)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 6 ; 11 ; November
  • Hake, Mariya; Poyntner, Philipp (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2020
    This paper constitutes an initial attempt to shed light on the role of income distribution in household debt and financial market access in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE). Using household-level data from the OeNB’s Euro Survey for the period 2009-2018, we address the question whether interpersonal comparisons (“keeping up with the CESEE Joneses" i.e. "the Novaks”) affect the probability of having and planning a loan. Applying multilevel probit modeling to take into account the hierarchical structure of the data, our results support the notion that higher income inequality is negatively correlated with the probability of having a loan at the bottom of the distribution, and positively at the top. We show this impact for almost all components of household debt, but evidence is strongest for mortgage, car and foreign currency loans. Interpersonal comparisons turn out to drive loan intentions, however, mainly on the very top of the income distribution.
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2017)
    Euro & talous 5/2017
    Hyvin koulutettujen ansiotaso on tyypillisesti korkeampi kuin heikosti koulutettujen. Seuraavassa tarkastellaan koulutuksen taloudellisia hyötyjä, kun ansiotason lisäksi otetaan huomioon hyvin koulutettujen parempi työllisyystilanne. Korkea-asteen tutkinnon suorittaminen näyttää etenkin miesten tapauksessa edelleen kannattavalta sijoitukselta.
  • Kinnunen, Helvi; Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2015)
    Euro & talous 3/2015
    Eläkkeelle siirtyvien aiempaa pidemmät työurat sekä korkeampi ansiotaso ovat kasvattaneet työeläkkeitä trendinomaisesti. Kun samalla työttömyysmenot ovat voimakkaasti lisääntyneet ja palkkatulojen kasvu on taantuman vuoksi ollut hidasta, on yhä useampi kotitalous tulonsiirtojen varassa. Kotitalouksien tulot ja kulutus riippuvatkin aiempaa vähemmän suhdanteista ja suhdannepolitiikasta. Rahapolitiikan vaikutusta kysyntään vähentää myös se, että omaisuustulojen osuus kulutuksen rahoituksessa kasvaa. Ikääntyneiden säästämisaste on elinkaariteorian vastaisesti noussut iän myötä, ja ikääntyneiden nettovarallisuus on suurin.
  • Mäki-Fränti, Petri (2018)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Suomalaisten kotitalouksien tuloista yhä suurempi osa on ikääntyneiden kotitalouksien saamia eläkkeitä, mikä on nopeasti muuttanut ikäluokkien välistä tulonjakoa. Tällä voi olla myös merkittäviä kokonaistaloudellisia vaikutuksia. Koska eläketulot eivät ole samalla tavalla riippuvaisia talouden nousu- ja laskukausista kuin palkkatulot, ikääntyneiden kulutusmenot voivat osaltaan tasoittaa suhdannevaihteluita. Samaan aikaan ikääntyminen voi pitkällä aikavälillä laskea kotitalouksien yhteenlaskettua säästämisastetta, varsinkin jos eläkeläiset alkavat laajamittaisesti purkaa säästöjään.