Browsing by Subject "tuotanto"

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  • Kurri, Samu (2007)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 81 ; 1
    Particularly since last year s reform of national accounts, it has been very difficult to estimate changes in the volume of industrial output.The present article introduces an alternative monthly indicator of industrial output calculated on the basis of publicly available material.The quarter-on-quarter changes derived with this indicator correspond on average more closely to the developments recorded in the national accounts than the volume index of industrial output calculated by Statistics Finland.The new indicator is available on the Bank of Finland website.
  • Bank of Finland (1972)
    Bank of Finland. Series D 29
    This is a report on the research project begun in 1970 to construct and simulate an econometric model for Finland. The goals of the project and the structure of the model as well as the reasoning behind the specification of the equations are discussed in this report. More detailed reports on the various blocks of the model in addition to the results of the first simulations and forecast experiments are to be published later in 1972 and in 1973.
  • Rasi, Chris-Marie; Viikari, Jan-Markus (1998)
    Suomen Pankin kansantalouden osaston työpapereita 2/98
    Tässä tutkimuksessa estimoidaan NAIRU ja potentiaalinen tuotanto Suomen neljännesvuosiaineistolla periodille 1982:1-1996:4. Menetelmä on rakenteellisten aikasarjamallien/ havaitsemattomien komponenttien (STM/UC)-menetelmä, jossa molemmat havaitsemattomat muuttujat estimoidaan yhtäaikaa mallin muiden parametrien kanssa. Identifioinnissa käytetään Okunin lain ja Philips-käyrän vakiintuneita spesifikaatioita.Havaitsemattomat muuttujat mallitetaan stokastisina trendeinä ja ne kytketään havaittuihin muuttujiin tuotantoon, työttömyysasteeseen ja inflaatiovauhtiin.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Schildt, Tony (2009)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 33/2009
    Many indicators of business and growth cycles have been constructed by both private and public agencies and are now in use as monitoring devices of economic conditions and for forecasting purposes. As these indicators are largely composite constructs using other economic data, their frequency composition is likely different to that of the variables they are used as indicators for. In this paper we use the Hilbert-Huang transform, which comprises the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and the Hilbert spectrum, in order to analyse the frequency content of comparable OECD confidence indicators and national sentiment indicators for industrial production and consumption. We then compare these with the frequency content of both industrial production and real consumption growth data. The Hilbert-Huang methodology first uses a sifting process (EMD) to identify the embedded frequencies within a time series, and the changing nature of these embedded frequencies (IMFs) can then be analysed by estimating the instantaneous frequency (using the Hilbert spectrum). This methodology has several advantages over conventional spectral analysis: it handles non-stationary and non-linear processes, and it can cope with short data series. The aim of this paper is to decompose both indicator and actual economic variables to evaluate i) whether the number of IMFs are equivalent in both indicators and actual variables and ii) to see which frequencies are accounted for in indicators and which frequencies are not.
  • Crowley, Patrick M. (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2005
    Published in Journal of Economic Surveys, Volume 21, Issue 2, April 2007: 207-267
    Wavelet analysis, although used extensively in disciplines such as signal processing, engineering, medical sciences, physics and astronomy, has not yet fully entered the economics discipline. In this discussion paper, wavelet analysis is introduced in an intuitive manner, and the existing economics and finance literature that utilises wavelets is explored. Extensive examples of exploratory wavelet analysis are given, many using Canadian, US and Finnish industrial production data. Finally, potential future applications for wavelet analysis in economics are also discussed and explored. Keywords: statistical methodology, multiresolution analysis, wavelets, business cycles, economic growth. JEL classification numbers: C19, C65, C87, E32.
  • Sariola, Mikko (2019)
    BoF Economics Review 2/2019
    In this paper, we estimate a potential output model for Finland using an unobserved component model. The model builds on a production function approach, and features price and wage Phillips curves, Okun’s law and several resource-utilization indicators. We show that incorporating resource-utilization indicators, i.e. capacity utilization and long-term unemployment, improves real-time reliability of the output gap and NAWRU estimates. Our real-time estimate of the output gap is robust even in an event of a sudden turning point in the economy such as the global financial crisis. It also outperforms the HP filter estimate. Results suggest that Finland’s potential output growth slowed significantly in the aftermath of the financial crisis and that the output gap was negative for most of the subsequent decade. The slowdown in potential growth was due mainly to lackluster total factor productivity growth. The real-time results are broadly in line with the ex-post estimates of the IMF and the European Commission.
  • Freystätter, Hanna (2012)
    Euro & talous. Rahapolitiikka ja kansainvälinen talous 4
    Espanjan asuntojen hintakuplan puhkeamisen aiheuttama varallisuussokki on vaikutuksiltaan voimakas ja pitkäkestoinen. Kuplan puhkeamisen seurauksena ns. rahoitustekijät, kuten taseiden heikkeneminen ja rahoituskustannusten kasvu, vähentävät yritysten ja kotitalouksien mahdollisuuksia investoida ja kuluttaa. Tässä artikkelissa havainnollistetaan mallilaskelman avulla rahoitustekijöiden laskusuhdannetta voimistavaa vaikutusta Espanjassa. Maan talouden tervehdytysohjelma tulee perustaa talouskehityksen realistiseen arvioon, jossa rahoitustekijöiden merkittävä ja pitkäaikainen kasvua hidastava vaikutus tulee otetuksi huomioon. Talouspolitiikalla tulee pyrkiä estämään Espanjaa uhkaava tasetaantuma ja kriisin pysyvät vaikutukset talouden tuotantopotentiaaliin.
  • Mörttinen, Leena (2002)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 12/2002
    This paper contributes to the discussion on the measurement of banking sector output.It is also a prelude to discussion on possible causes of productivity change in banking.We demonstrate how the banking sector's service production can be measured using aggregate financial statement and payment transactions data.We compute banking sector labour productivity Tornqvist indices for six countries (Finland, Sweden, United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy) over a period varying from 11 to 20 years.According to the results, Finnish banking sector productivity has improved via a substantial reduction size of labour force, whereas output growth has been rather modest.Although in most of the other countries the restructuring process has been less intense, most of the sectors studied have improved in terms of overall output and labour productivity, especially since the mid-1990s. Key words: banks, service production, productivity JEL classification numbers: D24, G21
  • Freystätter, Hanna (2012)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin. Monetary policy and the global economy 4
    The wealth shock caused when the housing price bubble burst in Spain will have strong, long-lasting effects. As a consequence of the bursting of the bubble, financial factors (such as weaker balance sheets and higher costs of funding) weigh on the investment and consumption potential of companies and households. In this article, we use a model simulation to illustrate the procyclical effect of financial factors on the economic downswing in Spain. The economic programme of the country must be based on a realistic assessment of economic development that captures the significant and long-term negative growth contribution of financial factors. Economic policy measures should be adopted to avert the threat of balance sheet recession facing Spain and avoid any permanent effects of the crisis on the output potential of the economy.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron; Sánchez-Fung, José R. (2010)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2010
    Published in Comparative Economic Studies, 52(4), 2010: 497-514
    The paper models monetary policy in China using a hybrid McCallum-Taylor empirical reaction function. The feedback rule allows for reactions to inflation and output gaps, and to developments in a trade-weighted exchange rate gap measure. The investigation finds that monetary policy in China has, on average, accommodated inflationary developments. But exchange rate shocks do not significantly affect monetary policy behavior, and there is no evidence of a structural break in the estimated reaction function at the end of the strict dollar peg in July 2005. The paper also runs an exercise incorporating survey-based inflation expectations into the policy reaction function and meets with some success.
  • Breitenlechner, Max; Nuutilainen, Riikka (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2019
    We study the credit channel of Chinese monetary policy in a structural vector autoregressive framework. Using combinations of zero and sign restrictions, we identify monetary policy shocks linked to supply and demand responses in the loan market. Our results show that policy shocks coinciding with loan supply effects account for roughly 10 percent of output dynamics after two years, while loan demand effects represent up to 7 percent of output dynamics depending on the policy measure. The credit channel thus constitutes an important and economically relevant transmission channel for monetary policy in China. Monetary policy in China also accounts for a relatively high share of business cycle dynamics.
  • Simola, Heli (2017)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2017
    Forthcoming in Asian Economic Papers
    We examine the international fragmentation of production chains in different countries using international input-output tables with a focus on China. We explore the development of main macro-level trends established in the previous literature with the most recent data available and compare Chinese production chains to those of other countries. We find that while international fragmentation of value chains has increased notably in other countries during 2000–2014, in China it has turned to decline in the latter part of the time period. The share of domestic value added has increased both in Chinese manufacturing and business service chains. The role of services has increased in the value chains of all countries, but even more pronouncedly in China mainly due to higher contribution from domestic services. Comparing globalization as opposed to regionalization in production chains shows that for most countries globalization has increased. A notable exception are other Asian countries than China, where value chains have instead become increasingly regional. Both these trends are largely due to the increased role of China in international production chains.
  • Kuboniwa, Masaaki (2016)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 11/2016
    This policy brief considers the newly clarified contributions of the military goods sector to economic growth in Russia from 2011 to 2015. The discussion is based on Rosstat’s recently released official data on disaggregated sectoral value-added.
  • Jokivuolle, Esa; Kiema, Ilkka; Vesala, Timo (2010)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2010
    Published in Journal of Financial Services Research, August 2014, Volume 46, Issue 1: 55-76 ;
    We show how banks excessive risk-taking, stemming from informational asymmetries in loan markets, can lead to an excessive output loss when a recession starts. Risk-based capital requirements can alleviate the output loss by reducing excessive risk-taking in normal times. Model simulations suggest that the differentiation of risk-weights in the Basel framework might be further increased in order to take full advantage of the allocational effects of capital requirements. Our analysis also provides a new rationale for the countercyclical elements of capital requirements. Keywords: bank regulation, Basel III, capital requirements, credit risk, crises, procyclicality JEL classification numbers: D41, D82, G14, G21, G28
  • Chen, Sophia; Ratnovski, Lev; Tsai, Pi-Han (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2019
    We estimate credit and fiscal multipliers in China, using subnational political cycles as a source of exogenous variation. The tenure of the provincial party secretary, interacted with the credit and fiscal expenditure used in other provinces, instruments for provincial credit and government expenditure growth. We find a fiscal multiplier of 0.75 in 2001-2008, which increased to 1.2 in 2010-2015, consistent with higher multipliers in a slower economy. At the same time, a credit multiplier of 0.2 in 2001-2008 declined to close to zero in 2010-2015, consistent with credit saturation and credit misallocation. Our results suggest that credit expansion cannot further support economic growth in China. The flip side is that lower credit growth is also unlikely to disrupt output growth. Fiscal policy is powerful, and can cushion the macroeconomic adjustment to lower credit intensity.
  • Korhonen, Iikka (1999)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/1999
    Published in Post-Communist Economies vol 12, no 1 (2000), pp. 25-46
    Sisällysluettelo: Abstract 5 1 Introduction 6 2 Currency board as an exchange rate arrangement 7 3 A short history of currency board arrangements 10 4 Currency boards in the Baltic countries 12 4.1 Monetary reforms in Estonia and Lithuania 12 4.1.1 Estonia 15 4.1.2 Lithuania 17 4.2 The rnacroeconomic effects of the Baltic currency boards 18 4.2.1 Inflation 20 4.2.2 Output 23 4.3 The Baltic currency boards and financial systems 25 4.4 Assessing the Baltic currency boards 27 5 Concluding remarks 32 References 34 Notes 37 Annex 39
  • Ripatti, Antti; Vilmunen, Jouko (2001)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita; Bank of Finland. Discussion papers 10/2001
    The study demonstrates that the decline in the labour share in Finland can not be explained by the Cobb-Douglas production function.Instead, we propose an approach based on the constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function with labour- and capital-augmenting technical progress.The model is augmented by imperfect competition in the output market.According to the empirical results based on estimation of the first-order-conditions, the technical elasticity of substitution is significantly less than unity (0.6) and hence the Cobb-Douglas production function is rejected.The growth rate of the estimated labour-augmenting technical progress has decreased in recent years, which is not consistent with the 'new-economy' hypothesis. Capital-augmenting technical trend has exploded during the same period, which provides a possible explanation for the rapid growth of the Solow residual.The main contributing factor behind the declining labour share is, however, the increasing mark-up. Keywords: production function, elasticity of technical substitution, input-augmenting technical progress, new economy
  • Laurila, Eino H. (1951)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 25 ; 3-4 ; March-April
  • Oomes, Nienke; Kalcheva, Katerina (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2007
    In this paper, we assess whether recent economic developments in Russia are symptomatic of Dutch Disease.We first provide a brief review of the literature on Dutch Disease and the natural resource curse.We then discuss the symptoms of Dutch Disease, which include (1) real exchange rate appreciation; (2) slower manufacturing growth; (3) faster service sector growth; and (4) higher overall wages.We test these predictions for Russia while carefully controlling for other factors that could have led to similar symptoms.We conclude that, while Russia has all of the symptoms, the diagnosis of Dutch Disease remains to be confirmed. JEL Classification Numbers: F30, P28, Q30 Key words: Dutch disease, real exchange rate, resource curse, Russia, oil, transition
  • Mehrotra, Aaron; Rautava, Jouko (2007)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2007
    Published in Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Vol. 6, No. 3, 2008, pp. 225-239
    This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy.We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People's Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports.Our bivariate vector autoregressive models, each composed of one diffusion index and one real sector variable, generally outperform univariate AR models in forecasting one to four quarters ahead.Similarly, principal components analysis, combining information from various diffusion indices, leads to enhanced forecasting performance.Our results indicate that Chinese business sentiment indicators convey useful information about current and future developments in the real economy.They also suggest that the official data provide a fairly accurate picture of the Chinese economy. Keywords: forecasting, diffusion index, VAR, China. JEL: E32, E37, P27