Browsing by Subject "tuottavuuskasvun hidastuminen"

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  • Schmöller, Michaela; Spitzer, Martin (2021)
    European Economic Review May ; 2021
    Published also in BoF DP 21/2019 ("Endogenous TFP, business cycle persistence and the productivity slowdown in the euro area")
    This paper analyses the role of endogenous total factor productivity dynamics in explaining business cycle persistence as well as the missing (dis-)inflation and productivity puzzles in the euro area. We show by means of an estimated medium-scale DSGE model in which TFP evolves endogenously as the result of costly investment in R&D and technology adoption that the endogenous slowdown in total factor productivity can explain the depth and persistence of the output drop and the weak recovery following the double-dip recession in the euro area. Our results suggest that a decrease in R&D efficiency and innovation is key in explaining the pre-crisis euro area productivity slowdown, while as of 2008 a crises-induced drop in technology adoption constitutes the most important factor. We document a flattening of the Phillips curve relationship under the endogenous TFP mechanism, resulting from the interaction between inflation and productivity dynamics. The endogenous reaction in TFP dampens the inflation response over the business cycle and can thus help explain both the moderate fall in euro area inflation during its crises and its sluggish increase in the subsequent recovery.
  • Schmöller, Michaela; Spitzer, Martin (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2019
    Published also in European Central Bank Working Paper Series 2401/2020
    This paper analyses the procyclicality of euro area total factor productivity and its role in business cycle amplification by estimating a medium-scale DSGE model with endogenous productivity mechanism on euro area data. Total factor productivity evolves endogenously as a consequence of costly investment in R&D and adoption of new technologies. We find that the endogeneity of TFP induces a high degree of persistence in the euro area business cycle via a feedback mechanism between overall economic conditions and investment in productivity-enhancing technologies. As to the sources of the euro area productivity slowdown, we conclude that a decrease in the efficiency of R&D investment is among the key factors generating the pre-crisis productivity slowdown, while starting from the Great Recession an increase in liquidity demand is identified as the most important driving force. The endogenous technology mechanism further exerts a dampening effect on the inflation response over the business cycle which helps rationalizing both the negligible fall in inflation during the Great Recession and the sluggish increase of inflation in the subsequent recovery.