Browsing by Subject "uudet EU-maat"

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  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (2004)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2004
    Published in Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol.34, No.3 (2006), pp. 518-537
    We review the literature on business-cycle correlation between the euro area and Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), a topic that has gained attention in recent years as new EU entrants prepare for participation in the monetary union.Our meta-analysis suggests several CEECs already have comparably high correlation with the euro area business cycle.We also find that estimation methodologies can have a significant effect on correlation coefficients.While central bankers are more conservative in their estimates, we find no evidence of a geographical bias in the studies.JEL-Numbers: C42, E32, F15, F31.Key words: monetary union, optimum currency area, business cycles, meta- analysis.
  • Haajanen, Jyrki (2005)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 1
    The banks of the new EU member states have adjusted well to the new operating environment. Their profitability and capital adequacy is good, thanks to several structural changes.
  • Rahn, Jörg (2003)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2003
    We apply BEER and PEER approaches to calculate real equilibrium exchange rates for five EU accession countries in central and east Europe.Bilateral nominal equilibrium exchange rates against the euro are obtained through algebraic transformation of the results. Panel cointegration techniques are used to check the adequacy of the empirical model.The results reveal substantial overvaluations of the real exchange rate in several EU accession countries. Overvaluation is even higher when these exchange rates are expressed in nominal terms against the euro. Keywords: real exchange rates, equilibrium exchange rates, transition economies, panel cointegration JEL Classification: F31, F41, C23
  • Égert, Balázs; Halpern, László (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2005
    Published in Journal of Banking & Finance 30 (2006), pp. 1359-1374
    This paper analyses the ever-growing literature on equilibrium exchange rates in the new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe in a quantitative manner using meta-regression analysis.The results indicate that the real misalignments reported in the literature are systematically influenced, inter alia, by the underlying theoretical concepts (Balassa-Samuelson effect, Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) and by the econometric estimation methods.The important implication of these findings is that a systematic analysis is needed in terms of both alternative economic and econometric specifications to assess equilibrium exchange rates. JEL: C15, E31, F31, O11, P17. Keywords: equilibrium exchange rate, Balassa-Samuelson effect, meta-analysis
  • Mehrotra, Aaron (Edita Prima, 2006)
    Suomen Pankki. E 34
    This thesis consists of four essays in empirical macroeconomics. The first three essays examine the conduct of monetary policy during a disinflationary and deflationary era, with the policy interest rates close to or at the zero bound.The questions of interest include the potency of the interest rate channel, the stability of broad money demand, and the possibility to use the exchange rate channel in order to affect economic activity and the price level.We use time series econometrics techniques, mainly vector autoregressions, focusing on Japan.While we find that basic relationships between the variables appear unaltered by deflation, a further stimulative impact is difficult to implement once the zero bound is hit.This can be due to political reasons, as in the case of introducing a tax on currency in order to bring about negative interest rates, or because the needed stimulus is very big, as in the case of yen depreciation to increase the price level.The last essay focuses on the fiscal policy aspects of the European Union's most recent enlargement.We examine whether the fiscal austerity required by the Maastricht criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact would be harmful for the socio-economic development of the new Member States.Introducing an indicator for socio-economic development and utilizing instrumental variables regressions, we find that fiscal retrenchment, including a lower level of public debt, would be advantageous for development.A policy implication is to maintain the Stability and Growth Pact or an equivalent intergovernmental fiscal rule to curb public spending and debt. Keywords: deflation, disinflation, zero lower bound, broadly defined liquidity, socio-economic development, Stability and Growth Pact, EU enlargement
  • (2000)
    Euroopan keskuspankki. Kuukausikatsaus Helmikuu
  • (2002)
    Euroopan keskuspankki. Kuukausikatsaus 7 ; Heinäkuu
    Euroopan unionin (EU) laajentuminen on ensimmäisen hakijamaajoukon osalta viimeisessä vaiheessa.Neuvottelujen odotetaan päättyvän tämän vuoden loppuun mennessä.Nykyisten suunnitelmien mukaan nämä maat voivat liittyä Euroopan unioniin liittymissopimusten ratifioinnin jälkeen vuonna 2004.EU:hun liittyessään nämä maat liittyvät myös talous- ja rahaliittoon euroalueen ulkopuolisina maina, ja niiden keskuspankit tulevat osaksi Euroopan keskuspankkijärjestelmää (EKPJ).Sen jälkeen kun nämä maat ovat saavuttaneet Maastrichtin sopimuksen kriteerien mukaisen kestävän lähentymisen, ne ottavat euron käyttöön ja niiden keskuspankit tulevat osaksi eurojärjestelmää. Eurojärjestelmä osallistuu EU:n laajentumisprosessiin omaan toimivaltaansa eli keskuspankkitoimintaan kuuluvilla aloilla. Osallistumismuotona on jatkuva vuoropuhelu, jota käydään sekä poliittisesta että teknisestä näkökulmasta.Vuoropuhelun tavoitteena on uusien keskuspankkien integroiminen EKPJ:hin ja myöhemmin eurojärjestelmään.Vuoropuheluun kuuluvia asioita ovat keskuspankkien kannalta tärkeät politiikan osaalueet, kuten makrotalouden kehitys, raha- ja valuuttapolitiikan strategiat, rahoitusmarkkinoiden rakenne ja keskuspankkien riippumattomuus. Lisäksi siihen kuuluu tekninen yhteistyö hakijamaiden keskuspankkien kanssa useilla aloilla, kuten maksujärjestelmät, oikeudelliset asiat ja tilastot. Tässä artikkelissa kuvataan eurojärjestelmän ja hakijamaiden keskuspankkien välisen vuoropuhelun rakennetta ja sisältöä. Artikkelista käy ilmi, että hakijamaat ovat edistyneet huomattavasti matkallaan kohti EU:n ja myöhemmin euroalueen jäsenyyttä.Artikkelissa esitetään myös joitakin jäljellä olevia poliittisia haasteita.
  • Mehrotra, Aaron; Slacik, Tomás (2009)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2009
    We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model averaging. We find that money provides information about price developments over a horizon of ten quarters ahead, albeit the estimates are in most cases rather imprecise. Moreover, the effect of excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Nevertheless, these results suggest that money does provide information about future inflation and that a McCallum rule could potentially be used in the future as an additional indicator of the monetary policy stance once the precision of the estimation improves with more data available.
  • Henriksson, Marketta (2005)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2005
    Differences in growth, productivity and inflation levels are going to be a prominent feature of the future of EMU, as the convergence process is still on-going in the new Member States. This convergence process can be described by the Balassa-Samuelson proposition, which states that faster growth in the traded goods sector than in the non-traded goods sector results in a rise in the price of non-traded goods and an appreciation of the trend real exchange rate. In this study, the aim is to construct a small open economy model that enables examination of the effects of Balassa-Samuelson-type growth in an intertemporal fixed exchange rate framework with a focus on the external balance. To address the well-known problems with small open economy models, an endogenous discount rate is used. The results imply that faster productivity growth in the traded than in the non-traded goods sector may induce external imbalances, leading to increased vulnerability of the economy. However, trade account deficits would appear to be a temporary phenomenon, as this line of development can be reversed by the natural shift in the composition of consumption towards non-traded goods that is characteristic of catch-up economies. In the meantime, fiscal policy plays a key role. Key words: small open economy, Balassa-Samuelson effect, ERM II, external balance JEL classification numbers: F41, F33, F32
  • Fischer, Christoph (2002)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002
    Published in Review of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv vol. 140, no 2 (2004), pp. 179-210
    The Balassa-Samuelson effect is usually seen as the prime explanation of the continuous real appreciation of central and east European (CEE) transition countries' currencies against their western counterparts.The response of a small country's real exchange rate to various shocks is derived in a simple model.It is shown that productivity shocks work not only through a Balassa-type supply channel but also through an investment demand channel. Therefore, empirical evidence apparently in favour of Balassa-Samuelson effects may require a re-interpretation.The model is estimated for a panel of CEE countries.The results are consistent with the model, plausibly explain the observed real appreciation and support the existence of the proposed investment demand channel.JEL classification: F31, F41, C33
  • Korhonen, Iikka (2002)
    BOFIT Online 10/2002
    The paper estimates the Monetary Condition Indices (MCIs) for three EU accession countries: the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia and assesses the relative importance of interest rates and of the exchange rate in the transmission of monetary policy.The calculated MCI ratios indicate that the exchange rate has surprisingly little influence on the Slovakian economy.The MCI ratio for the Czech Republic is very much comparable to that of small EU countries.Poland seems to be extremely sensitive to changes in the exchange rate.However, estimations appear to be quite sensitive to different specifications, and therefore should be treated with caution. Key words: Monetary policy, Monetary Condition Index, the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia
  • Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka (2003)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2003
    Published in Comparative Economic Studies vol. 46 no 1 (2004), pp. 45-62 https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.ces.8100040
    We assess the correlation of supply and demand shocks between current countries in the euro area and EU accession candidates from 1993/1995 to 2002.Supply and demand shocks are recovered from estimated structural VAR models of output growth and inflation. Notably, the economic slowdown between 2000 and 2002 increased heterogeneity of business cycles between the euro area and acceding counties.We find that several acceding countries have a quite high correlation of underlying shocks with the euro area and conclude that continuing integration within the EU is likely to align the business cycles of these countries in a manner similar to the synchronisation of supply and demand shocks we document for the EU in the 1990s.JEL numbers E32, F42.Keywords: Optimum currency area, EU enlargement, structural VAR.
  • Lahdenperä, Harri; Pyyhtiä, Ilmo (2005)
    EURO & TALOUS 4
    Valuuttakurssimekanismi ERM II tarjoaa euroalueeseen kuulumattomille EU:n jäsenmaille mahdollisuuden kytkeä rahansa euroon.ERM II -jäsenyys on osa lähentymistä, jonka lopullisena päämääränä on liittyminen talous- ja rahaliiton kolmanteen vaiheeseen ja kansallisen rahan korvaaminen yhteisellä rahalla, eurolla.
  • Haajanen, Jyrki (2005)
    Suomen Pankki. Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti 1
    EU:n uusien jäsenmaiden pankit ovat sopeutuneet hyvin uuteen toimintaympäristöön. Monien rakenteellisten muutosten ansiosta niiden kannattavuus ja vakavaraisuus ovat hyvällä tasolla.