Browsing by Subject "vaihtotase"

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  • Saarenheimo, Tuomas (1996)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 70 ; 2 ; February
  • Woo, Wing Thye (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 7/2018
    Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978, there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies. China should not only give national treatment in the near future to foreign firms but should also set up a mechanism to start easing up on foreign acquisition of Chinese firms in a manner that is consistent with China’s national security concerns. Our principal policy suggestion to the US is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game while economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short-run, but generally creates a win-win outcome in the long-run. National economic dynamism and economic resilience emerge from international economic competition and not from sheltering domestic high-tech firms permanently.
  • Peura, Tapio (1989)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 36/1989
    An earlier version of this Discussion Paper was published by the Kiel Institute ofi World Economics in May 1989 (Kiel Advanced Studies Working Paper No. 167).
    The seriousness of an external imbalance should be assessed with respect its macroeconomic connections and intertemporal nature. A current account deficit reflects differences in time of saving and investment decicions of the economic agents - the households, the companies and the publie sector - as well as the international dimensions of these decisions, made possible by liberalized capital markets. In principle, respect for intertemporal budget constraints, which bind economic units, will keep foreign indebtedness on an equilibrium path and ensure the solvency of the economy in the long term. Distor~ions relating to the functioning' of markets may, however, lead to sub-optimal consumption and investment decisions and disequilibrium. The rate of growth of foreign indebtedness should be kept within the'limits set by the solvency constraint of the economy, which depends on the real rate of interest on the foreign debt and on the growth rate of the economy.
  • Hilpinen, Jorma (1995)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 4/1995
    The pressures on the markka's exchange rate caused substantial swings in capital movements during 1991 and 1992.The markka was let to float in September 1992, and since then exchange rate changes have been volatile. The Bank of Finland has complete monthly information for the BoP statistics since January 1991, allowing the calculation of detailed capital movements as well as a proper monthly errors and omissions item.The information system was planned in fixed exchange rate circumstances.The last four years have challenged the system more than expected, raising the risk of major errors and omissions. The early data on current account is one item of economic information most eagerly awaited.The period of exchange rate turbulences also posed many practical problems in recording visible- and invisible current account transactions. In view of quality of the BoP-statistics measured with the errors and omissions, the last four years of exchange rate turbulence did not cause outstanding errors and thus a sudden weakening in the quality of statistics. In the circumstances of floating currencies in many European countries the need and scope for revisions of early indicators of current account and other items may increase.So far our error even in the first current account estimates has been moderate, though it has been systematic, and the estimates have given a fairly reliable picture of the developments of the foreign stability of the Finnish economy.
  • Bank of Finland (1988)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin
    Finland's Trade Policy and Trade Policy Agreements by Veli Sundbäck 3 Trends in Finnish Current Account in the 1980s by Tapio Peura 10 Foreign Trade in the Finnish Economy by Pentti Forsman and Tapio Peura 16 Structural Developments in Foreign Trade by Pentti Forsman 22 Finland's Foreign Trade in Services by Jorma Hilpinen and Pirkko Miikkulainen 28 Finland's Trade and Economic Cooperation with the CMEA Countries by Terhi Kivilahti 34 Finland's Commercial Relations with Developing Countries by Alec Aalto 41 High Technology in Finnish Foreign Trade by Harri Luukkanen 48 European Integration and Finland by Veli Sundbäck 52 Apart from the articles by Hilpinen and Miikkulainen and Aalto, all these articles have previously appeared in various issues of the Bulletin in 1988.
  • Knight, John; Wang, Wei (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2011
    Published in The World Economy, Vol. 34, Issue 9, pp. 1476-1506, September 2011
    In recent years China has experienced two forms of extreme macroeconomic imbalance: an expenditure imbalance in the sense of very high investment and very low consumption, giving rise to rapid capital accumulation; and an imbalance between expenditure and pro-duction, producing external imbalance, i.e. a huge surplus on the current account of the balance of payments. Both imbalances imply a low rate of time discount by both govern-ment and society: consumption in the present is forgone in favour of consumption in the future. The paper examines how these imbalances came about, and goes on to consider whether they can be sustained and how they might be redressed. There is no evidence that the rapid capital accumulation has reduced the rate of profit on capital and thus the incen-tive to invest. However, persistent external imbalance poses a threat to investment if it ge-nerates excess liquidity and asset bubbles. The current account surplus rose remarkably in the years 2004-7. This was associated with exogenous increases in competiveness and in saving, both attributable to the economic reform policies. On current policies, the surplus is likely to rise again once the world economy recovers from its recession. This poses three sorts of problems, each of which is examined in turn: difficulties for macroeconomic stabi-lization policies; risk of capital loss on the foreign exchange holdings; and the threat of re-taliation by China's trading partners. A combination of internal and external policies will be required to redress the imbalance. Keywords: China; investment; consumption; current account; exchange rate; external im-balance; macroeconomic imbalance. JEL Classification: E21; E22; E61; F32; F41; F51.
  • Hilpinen, Jorma (1995)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 25/1995
    In order to bridge the lack of the official foreign stade statistics compiled by the Board of Customs caused by Finland's entry into the EU and to secure the availibility of current account estimates with a five week delay, the Bank of Finland decided in the autumn 1994 that a special survey for foreign trade will be built.It was felt necessary that the balance of payments statistics must continue to come out without any halt.It seems evident that within rather wide limits exports and imports can be estimated with the cut-off survey.However, monthly variations being very large, it is of utmost difficulty to give precise monthly estimates for the trade balance.The current preliminaries produced by the Bank as well as by the Customs may give wrong signals to the market if single monthly observations are concerned. The Bank of Finland survey data may describe the underlying developments in the foreign stability with reasonable reliability. In addition, the use of robust economic relationships could be one way to economize and to speed up statistical systems.However, to have consistent short term information on trade balance, only one reliable information system is no doubt preferred.Therefore, the Board of Customs should make every effort to make their statistical system functional so that information are available with only a few weeks delay and the reliability of the old foreign trade statistic could be reached.
  • Comunale, Mariarosaria (2015)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 28/2015
    Using the IMF CGER methodology, we make an assessment of the current account and price competitiveness of the Central Eastern European Countries (CEEC) that joined the EU between 2004 and 2014. We present results for the “Macroeconomic Balance (MB)” approach, which provides a measure of current account equilibrium based on its determinants together with mis-alignments in real effective exchange rates. We believe that a more refined analysis of the mis-alignments may useful for the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP). This is especially the case for these countries, which have gone through a transition phase and boom/bust periods since their independence. Because such a history may have influenced a country’s performance, any evaluation must take account of each country’s particular characteristics. We use a panel setup of 11 EU new member states (incl. Croatia) for the period 1994-2012 in static and dynamic frameworks, also controlling for the presence of cross-sectional dependence and checking specifically for the role of exchange rate regimes, capital flows and global factors. We find that the estimated coefficients of the determinants meet with expectations. Moreover, the foreign capital flows, the oil balance, and relative output growth seem to play a crucial role in explaining the current account balance. Some global factors such as shocks in oil prices or supply might have played a role in worsening the current account balances of the CEECs. Having a pegged exchange rate regime (or being part of the euro zone) affects the current account positively. The real effective exchange rates behave in accord with the current account gaps, which clearly display cyclical behaviour. The CAs and REERs come close to equilibria in 2012 in most of the countries and the rebalancing is completed for some countries that were less misaligned in the past, such as Poland and Czech Republic, but also for Lithuania. When Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is introduced as a determinant for these countries, the misalignments are larger in the boom periods (positive misalignments) whereas the negative misalignments are smaller in magnitude.
  • Nieminen, Mika; Heimonen, Kari; Tohmo, Timo (2017)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2017
    Published in Open Economies Review, 30, 2, 2019, 319–341
    This study provides novel evidence on the impact of labor market institutions on current account dynamics. Our results suggest that a high degree of coordination of wage bargaining has a positive effect on the current account balance over the long run. This result is not driven entirely by wage moderation induced by centralized wage setting, however. A high degree of coordination of wage bargaining is associated with a slower current account adjustment toward its long-run equilibrium. This result seems theoretically plausible; the aggregate shocks in the exporting sector are largely driven by idiosyncratic shocks and the presence of idiosyncratic shocks increases the importance of labor market flexibility. This analysis of the impact of labor market institutions on current account balances complements the existing empirical current account literature focused on macroeconomic and financial measures.
  • Kajanoja, Lauri (2012)
    Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook 5
    Finland s competitiveness has weakened during the period of Economic and Monetary Union, if competitiveness is understood to mean the presence of conditions ensuring the economy s external balance. The profitability of output in the open sector has declined. Unit labour costs in manufacturing point to a more favourable performance, but differences in price developments across sectors essentially reduce the usefulness of this indicator as a measure of competitiveness.
  • Aurikko, Esko; Hietalahti, Jorma (1998)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 72 ; 4 ; April
  • Hilpinen, Jorma (2007)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 2007/18
    This paper1 treats Finnish Balance of Payments time series from the 1960's to the present. It also discusses future current account prospects. Comparable National Accounts and Balance of Payments time series with current major breakdowns are available2 in the current account from 1950 on and in the financial account from 1975 on. The old financial account time series from 1950 on follow a previous classification system where loans and bonds were not distinguished between. In practise, financial flows and stocks other than long term bank loans and bonds were nonexistent due to the foreign exchange controls then in place. The sum of these two plus trade related flows and change in reserves equalled current account. The figures in the charts attached are expressed in relation to the nominal GDP, where relevant. Foreign trade in goods was deregulated in Finland in 1957 and the first steps towards European integration were taken in the form of the 1961 EFTA agreement as signs of return to normalised economic conditions after the War. The 1990's recession represents a major milestone in Finnish economic history dividing a number of economic processes into before and after periods. Another watershed is the EU and the EMU membership in 1995 and in 1999, respectively3. Other major factors lie behind recent Finnish economic developments: The ICT revolution and phenomena like Nokia is one occurring in the 1990's after the recession, and the other is todays' integration and globalisation process, as seen in the China syndrome originating this millennium.
  • Hoej, Liselotte (1995)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 2/1995
    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) for the Finnish economy and to derive a relationship between the current account and the real exchange rate in the macroeconomic equilibrium.FEER is defined as the real exchange rate which delivers a sustainable current account balance when the economy is growing at its equilibrium (non-inflationary) rate.The results emphasize the effects of the collapse of the Finnish-Soviet trade in 1991 on both the equilibrium rate of output and the equilibrium exchange rate.The assessment of the exchange rate situation prevailing in late 1994 points to the conclusion that there may be emerging conflicts in Finland between the targets of external and internal balance, unless structural reforms or the recovery of the international economy move the fundamentals from their present position.
  • Punzi, Maria Teresa (2012)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 1/2012
    This paper presents a two-sector, two-country model showing that inflation in the housing market, a low personal savings rate, and a construction investment boom can contribute to a large current account de cit. In the model, demand by a group of households in the domestic country is constrained by the availability of collateral. This implies more procyclical debt capacity because constrained households can borrow against the increase in the value of their houses during an expansion. A higher degree of financial liberalization and development helps constrained households reach higher loan-to-value ratios, thus relaxing their borrowing constraints. The resulting higher net worth and lower need for savings imply a worsening current account.
  • Korhonen, Tapio; Forsman, Pentti (2003)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 77 ; 3
  • Korhonen, Tapio (2004)
    Monissa maissa kotitaloudet ja yritykset ovat viime vuosina velkaantuneet nopeasti.Samalla talouksien likviditeetti on lisääntynyt.Tämä rahoituserien voimakas kasvu lisää epävarmuutta maailmantalouden kehityksestä
  • Suomen Pankki (2018)
    Euro & talous 4/2018
    Yhdysvaltojen kauppapolitiikka on viime vuoden aikana muuttunut selvästi protektionistisemmaksi ja pyrkinyt muuttamaan kansainvälisen kaupan ehtoja. Protektionistisilla toimilla voi kuitenkin olla arvaamattomia ja pitkäkestoisia seurauksia, kun yritysten tuotantoketjut ovat monimutkaistuneet ja levinneet valtionrajojen yli. Vaikka korkeammat tullit jäisivätkin väliaikaisiksi, maailmantalouden kasvu hidastuu sitä enemmän, mitä voimakkaammin tullikorotukset lisäävät epävarmuutta ja lykkäävät investointeja.
  • Koivu, Tuuli; Korhonen, Tapio (2006)
    BOFIT Online 1/2006
    Maailman kasvaneet rahoitusepätasapainot ovat viime vuosina lisänneet keskustelua Kiinan valuuttakurssin tasosta.Keskustelu on ollut osin yksipuolista ja se on liian usein jäänyt kahdenvälisten kauppaepätasapainojen tarkasteluun.Kiinan kaltaisen maan nousu maailman suurimpien vientimaiden joukkoon on kuitenkin monien muiden tekijöiden kuin edullisen valuuttakurssin ansiota, eikä valuuttakurssin roolia epätasapainojen purkamisessakaan pidä liioitella.Epätasapainojen syitä mietittäessä merkittäviä ovat esimerkiksi erot maiden säästämisasteissa.Kiinassa kotitalouksien ja yritysten säästämisvimma on poikkeuksellisen korkea, ja pääomanliikkeiden ollessa vielä suurelta osin säänneltyjä säästöt johtavat korkeaan investointiasteeseen. Asiasanat: Kiina, Yhdysvallat, kansainvälinen talous, rahapolitiikka
  • Mäki-Fränti, Petri; Railavo, Jukka (2012)
    Suomen Pankki. BoF online 14/2012
    Yhtenä Suomen vaihtotaseen kehitystä viime vuosina heikentäneenä tekijänä on pidetty kotimaisten kustannusten ja erityisesti ansiotason nousua suhteessa kilpailijamaihin. Se on jarruttanut viennin kasvua ja lisännyt tuontia. Julkaisussa tarkastellaan kotimaisen kustannuskehityksen vaikutusta vaihtotaseeseen Suomen Pankin yleisen tasapainon mallilla sekä rakenteellisilla VAR-malleilla. Yleisen tasapainon mallia hyödyntävän laskelman mukaan työmarkkinoiden toiminnan muutoksesta johtuvan kotimaisen kustannustason nousun vaikutus vaihtotaseeseen jää etenkin lyhyellä aikavälillä melko vähäiseksi mm. investointien heikkenemisen takia. Rakenteellisten VAR-mallien mukaan nimelliset sokit selittävät vaihtotaseen lyhyen aikavälin vaihtelusta suuremman osan kuin pysyvät tarjontasokit.