Browsing by Subject "valuutat"

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 13/2020
    Published in Economic and Political Studies online
    This article recounts China’s renminbi (RMB) internationalization experiences since the 2009 RMBcross-border trade settlement initiative. In the first few years, the RMB made inroads into global financial markets and had a few remarkable accomplishments, including the Special Drawing Right currency status. Since the 2015 market turmoil, RMB internationalization has levelled off – possibly due to changes in both domestic and geopolitical conditions. The RMB is currently under-represented in the global market compared with China’s economic importance. China’s deliberate and schematic policies will elevate the RMB’s global stature in a gradual manner but there will not be a leapfrogging in the near term.
  • Tarkka, Juha (1997)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 15/1997
    This paper analyses the prerequisites for and the results of unanimous monetary policy decisions in a monetary union consisting of heterogeneous members.The analysis is based on a multicountry version of Rogoff's model of the determination of monetary policy in the presence of supply shocks.It is shown that an international transfer system can be designed which creates consensus both on the average rate of inflation and the common response to asymmetric shocks to the participating economies.We conjecture that this kind of transfer mechanisms, institutionalized or informal, supporting joint decisions tend to evolve in contexts where there is strong aversion of disagreement.Monetary policy is arguably such a context, because frequent disagreement within the decision-making body could be harmful to credibility. The transfer system capable of supporting consensus on monetary policy can be based on activity-related, automatic subsidies for countries which would individually prefer lower inflation rates, and activity-related taxes for countries which would prefer higher inflation in absence of the transfer system. It turns out that the common monetary policy created by unanimous decisions under the supporting transfer mechanism can be characterized as a weighted average of the national "stand-alone" inflation rates, i.e. the rates which would prevail without the monetary union.The weights of the countries are not related to the sizes of the national economies, but rather to the national attitudes towards inflation and transfer income.Countries with a low stand-alone rate of inflation get a large weight in the determination of the common monetary policy, as do the countries which have a relatively low marginal valuation of international transfer income. Keywords: Positive inflation theory, monetary union, monetary policy
  • Lukkarila, Johanna (2003)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 3/2003
    Monet maat ovat 1990-luvun alun jälkeen luopuneet kiinteän mutta ajoittain muutettavan valuuttakurssin järjestelmästä.Tässä työssä arvioidaan, miten Aasian tapahtumien jälkeen kehitellyt niin kutsutut kolmannen sukupolven valuuttakriisimallit selittävät Aasian kriisiä.Lisäksi teorioita ja Aasian tapahtumia verrataan Venäjän ja Turkin viimeisiin rahoituskriiseihin.Tarkastelu osoittaa, etteivät perinteiset teoriat ole menettäneet merkitystään kriisien selittäjinä.Uusia malleja ja mallien yhdistämistä kuitenkin tarvitaan, sillä viimeaikaisiin kriiseihin on yhä useammin liittynyt sekä pankki- että valuuttakriisien piirteitä.Avain-sanat: valuuttakriisit, pankkikriisit, kehittyvät markkinat, Aasia, Turkki, Venäjä JEL-luokittelu: F31, F32, F41
  • Castrén, Olli (1999)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 2/1999
    This paper considers how the "true" common monetary policy that is conducted by the ECB under various sources of uncertainty will differ from the policy that was agreed in the Maastricht Treaty, and how the uncertainties may induce a representative government to criticise the common monetary policy.Acquiring information about the transmission mechanism, and revealing that information as well as information about the ECB reaction function, is incentive compatible for the ECB both directly and indirectly.The direct effect means that the ECB's own welfare is decreasing in uncertainties.The indirect effect arises because less uncertainty reduces the risk of criticism from the individual governments' side.The risk of criticism is the larger, and consequently the indirect incentive to reduce uncertainty is the higher, the larger are the leftward shifts in national political preferences from those that prevailed when the Maastricht Treaty was signed.The model also provides an explanation for the ECB's choice of monetary policy strategy that incorporates elements of both monetary targeting and inflation targeting. Keywords: Monetary uncertainty, monetary strategy, EMU.
  • Hämäläinen, Heikki T.; Vehmas, Maritta (1996)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 70 ; 8 ; August
  • Ahlstedt, Monica (1998)
    Suomen Pankki. E 11
    This study uses GARCH modelling to estimate and forecast conditional variances and covariances of returns calculated from a set of financial market series: twelve markka exchange rates, twelve corresponding shortterm euro interest rates and the Finnish short-term interest rate, the Finnish long-term interest rate, the Finnish all-share index and real estate prices. The variances are specified through univariate estimation and the analysis is then extended to a portfolio of assets by presenting and applying two alternative methods for covariance modelling.The first method is based on the assumption of identical autocorrelation structure for variances and covariances.The other method is based on the assumption of constant correlation.Both methods are flexible and enable the extension of the analysis to a large number of return series. The study then derives a forecast function from the models estimated from pooled data for variances and covariances of exchange rates and interest rates and from individual data for the other rates, in the form of a weighted moving average of past squared residuals.GARCH forecasts for the variances of individual return series as well as portfolios are compared in an ex post context, on the one hand, to two alternative forecasts based on piecewise homoscedastic variance models and, on the other, to actual data on squared returns. The empirical results in the study show that the estimated variance-covariance models display a high degree of similarity both across the variables and across subsamples (ie across exchange rate regimes); GARCH(1,1) seems to represent the underlying conditional variance process fairly well.In terms of persistence in the variance processes, which is nearly IGARCH(l,1), the estimated models are also remarkably similar both for the individual variables and for pooled data.Hence parsimony suggests using an integrated process to represent volatility in the sample.The study also argues that the estimated GARCH models represent a methodological and empirical improvement over those estimates typically used eg in value-at-risk calculations. Keywords: time-dependent volatility, GARCH estimation, value-at-risk models
  • Karhapää, Henna (2018)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Kuluva vuosi on ollut Argentiinalle surkea. Näkymissä on talouden syvä taantuma, inflaatio huitelee yli 40 prosentissa ja valuutan arvosta on vuoden aikana kadonnut puolet. Ongelmien syvyydestä kertoo myös se, että tilanteen hallintaan on tarvittu Kansainvälisen valuuttarahaston (IMF) historian suurin rahoitusohjelma, joka vain muutama kuukausi sen hyväksymisen jälkeen jouduttiin rakentamaan uudelleen. Argentiinan saaminen omille jaloilleen tulee vaatimaan kansainvälisen yhteisön tuen lisäksi kotimaisten viranomaisten lujan sitoutumisen tarvittavien politiikkatoimien toteuttamiseen.
  • Kariluoto, Jarmo (1992)
    Suomen Pankin tilasto-osaston työpapereita; Bank of Finland statistics department working papers 11/1992
  • Suomen Pankki (2003)
    Suomen Pankki. Tiedote
  • Suomen Pankki (2004)
    Suomen Pankki. Tilastotiedote
  • Suomen Pankki (2002)
    Suomen Pankki. Tiedote
  • Suomen Pankki (2000)
    Suomen Pankki. Tiedote
  • Suomen Pankki (2001)
    Suomen Pankki. Tiedote
  • Lainela, Seija (1995)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 7/1995
    Baltian maat irtautuivat Venäjän ruplasta vuonna 1992, vuosi poliittisen itsenäistymisensä jälkeen.Aluksi riitti ulkomaisia epäilijöitä, jotka eivät uskoneet pienten maiden rahayksiköiden tulevaisuuteen.Baltian maat ovat kuitenkin menestyneet omien valuuttojen vakiinnuttamisessa erittäin hyvin.Menestys on perustunut kaikissa maissa noudatettuun onnistuneeseen makrotaloudelliseen vakautukseen.Inflaatio on viimeisten parin vuoden aikana saatu kireällä raha- ja finanssipolitiikalla alenemaan huomattavasti vuoden 1992 noin 1000 prosentin tasosta, joskin hintojen nousu on vieläkin nopeaa länsimaihin verrattuna. Omien valuuttojen käyttöönoton yhteydessä Baltian maiden oli päätettävä, millaista raha- ja valuuttakurssipolitiikkaa ne alkavat noudattaa.Alussa Baltian maiden ratkaisut olivat keskenään erilaisia, mutta kun lähes kolme vuotta on kulunut, maiden raha- ja valuuttakurssipoliittiset peruslinjat ovat nykyään hyvin lähellä toisiaan. Baltian maiden talouspolitiikan onnistumisesta kertoo se, että maiden valuutat ovat koko olemassaolonsa ajan (Liettuan alkuvaikeuksia lukuunottamatta) olleet vakaimpia Euroopassa. Baltian maat ovat myös ensimmäisinä entisten sosialististen maiden joukossa saattaneet voimaan valuuttojensa täyden vaihdettavuuden. Tässä artikkelissa tarkastellaan Baltian maiden omien valuuttojen vakiinnuttamisen onnistumista ja rahapolitiikan saavutuksia.Näitä kysymyksiä selvitetään mm. korkotason ja inflaatiovauhdin sekä valuuttavarannon kehityksen avulla. Yleisesti ottaen kaikki Baltian maat ovat onnistuneet vakautuspolitiikassaan.Maiden välillä on kuitenkin ollut eroja siinä, millä keinoin tavoitteet on saavutettu.Kun Baltian maiden taloudelliset lähtökohtatilanteet ovat olleet hyvin samankaltaisia, maiden keskinäinen vertailu antaa mahdollisuuden eri politiikkavalintojen arviointiin.
  • Lainela, Seija (1992)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 7/1992
  • Granziera, Eleonora; Sihvonen, Markus (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2020
    We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning short-term interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel and find that it largely explains why short rates and yield spreads predict bond and currency returns. The model also creates the downward sloping term structure of carry trade returns documented by Lustig et al. (2019), difficult to replicate in a rational expectations framework. Consistent with the model, we find that variables that predict bond and currency returns also predict survey-based expectational errors concerning interest and FX rates. The model explains why monetary policy induces drift patterns in bond and currency markets and predicts that long-term rates are a better gauge of market’s short rate expectations than previously thought.
  • Pipping, Hugo E. (1960)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 34 ; 3 ; March
  • Garcia-Herrero, Alicia; Xia, Le (2013)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2013
    Published in Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Volume 22, Issue 4, 2015 p. 368-383 as RMB Bilateral Swap Agreements: how China chooses its partners?
    This paper analyzes empirically what determines the choice of countries signing an RMB-denominated Bilateral Swap Agreement (BSA) with China. The gravity motif is predominant (both in terms of country size and distance from China) but so is the trade motif, in terms of both exports to China and the existence of an FTA with China. Institutional soundness also matters since countries with better government and less corruption are more likely to sign an RMB-denominated BSA. This contravenes the view that China has used RMB BSAs as a soft power tool in more corrupted countries. However, the fact that China has a preference for countries with a default history and a closed capital account calls for caution. Keywords: RMB internationalization, bilateral swap agreements. JEL: F33, F36, F42
  • Dorbec, Anna (2005)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2005
    Published in Growth Resumption in the CIS Countries, ed. by Oleh Havrylyshyn and Lucio Vinhas de Souza, Springer (2006), pp. 40-72
    The analysis of external economic relations of Russia reveals a paradox: while Europe is the main trade and direct investment partner of Russia, this is far from being the case concerning its currency s role in Russia's financial activities.The dollar is much preferred by economic agents for financial operations.This paper proposes a disaggregated approach to this issue by separating the means of exchange and store of value components of the use of substitution currencies.The influence of three main factors (inertial component, real trade relations and exchange rate fluctuations) on the relative demand for the euro by Russian economic agents is tested for the period 1999-2004.Finally we suggest a theoretical interpretation of the results based on the conventions theory approach. Keywords: dollarisation, euroisation, transition, Russia, currency substitution, asset substitution, network externalities, hysteresis, conventions JEL classification: E52, E41, F31, F41,G20
  • Fischer, Christoph (2012)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2012
    Based on a classification of countries and territories according to their regime and anchor currency choice, the study considers the two major currency blocs of the present world. A nested logit regression suggests that long-term structural economic variables determine a given country's currency bloc affiliation. The dollar bloc differs from the euro bloc in that there exists a group of countries that peg temporarily to the US dollar without having close economic affinities with the bloc. The estimated parameters are consistent with an additive random utility model interpretation. A currency bloc equilibrium in the spirit of Alesina and Barro (2002) is derived empirically. Keywords: anchor currency choice, nested logit, exchange rate regime classification, additive random utility model, currency bloc equilibrium JEL-Classification: F02, F31, F33, E42, C25