Browsing by Subject "valuuttakauppa"

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong (2020)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 13/2020
    This article recounts China’s renminbi (RMB) internationalization experiences since the 2009 RMBcross-border trade settlement initiative. In the first few years, the RMB made inroads into global financial markets and had a few remarkable accomplishments, including the Special Drawing Right currency status. Since the 2015 market turmoil, RMB internationalization has levelled off – possibly due to changes in both domestic and geopolitical conditions. The RMB is currently under-represented in the global market compared with China’s economic importance. China’s deliberate and schematic policies will elevate the RMB’s global stature in a gradual manner but there will not be a leapfrogging in the near term.
  • Bask, Mikael (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2006
    Published in European Financial Management, 14, No. 1, 2008, Pages 99-117
    It is demonstrated in this paper that adaptive learning in least squares sense may be incapable to reduce, in a satisfactory way, the number of attainable equilibria in a rational expectations model.The model investigated, as an illustration, is the monetary approach to exchange rate determination that is augmented with technical trading in the currency market in the form of moving averages since it is the most commonly used technique according to questionnaire surveys.Because of technical trading in foreign exchange, the current exchange rate is dependent on jmax lags of the exchange rate, and the model has, therefore jmax + 1 nonbubble rational expectations equilibria (REE), where most of them are adaptively learnable.However, by assuming that a solution to the model should have a solution to a nested model as its limit, it is possible to single out a unique equilibrium among the adaptively learnable equilibria that is economically meaningful.Key words: asset pricing, heterogenous agents, least squares learnability, rational expectations equilibria and technical trading JEL classification numbers: C62, F31, G12
  • Bask, Mikael (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2006
    Published in International Journal of Finance and Economics, Volume 14, Issue 1, January 2009: 64-84
    The aim of this paper is to analyse the announcement effects on exchange rate movements using the basic asset pricing model, where currency trade is partly determined by technical trading in the form of moving averages since it is the most commonly used technique according to questionnaire surveys.Specifically, the announcement and implementation of temporary as well as permanent monetary policy are analysed, where the exchange rate model developed is summarised in a linear difference equation in current exogenous fundamentals, a large number of lags of the endogenous exchange rate and time-t dating of exchange rate expectations. However, since there are a large number of rational expectations equilibria, continuity is proposed as a selection criterion among the equilibria, meaning that the parameter for the time-t - 1 exchange rate should have the limit 0 when there is no technical trading to have an economically meaningful equilibrium.It turns out that there is a unique rational expectations equilibrium that satisfy the continuity criterion, and focusing on this equilibrium, it is shown that the exchange rate is much more sensitive to changes in money supply than when technical trading is absent in currency trade.This result is important since it sheds light on the so-called exchange rate disconnect puzzle in international finance.Key words: asset pricing, exchange rate disconnect puzzle, heterogeneous agents, least squares learnability, monetary policy and technical trading. JEL classification numbers: E51, E52, F31, G12
  • Hietalahti, Jorma; Solttila, Heikki (1986)
    Bank of Finland. Monthly Bulletin 60 ; 10 ; October
  • (2003)
    Euroopan keskuspankki. Kuukausikatsaus Tammikuu
    Valuuttakauppojen selvitys- ja toimitusjärjestelmä CLS (Continuous Linked Settlement eli jatkuva linkitetty katteensiirto) käynnistyi 9.9.2002.Järjestelmässä hoidetaan seitsemän tärkeimmän valuutan, mm. euron, Yhdysvaltain dollarin ja Japanin jenin välisten valuuttakauppojen katteensiirtoja.CLS-järjestelmä on pankkialan vastaus G10-maiden keskuspankkien esittämään tavoitteeseen vähentää vatuuttakaupan maksujen toimitusriskiä, sillä järjestelmä on suunniteltu siten, että riski voidaan sen avulla suurelta osin poistaa.CLS-järjestelmän selvitysosapuolten on noudatettava katteensiirroissa tiukkaa päivittäistä aikataulua, mikä asettaa jonkin verran haasteita niiden likviditeetinhallinnalle.Järjestelmän odotetaan vaikuttavan myös markkinoiden infrastruktuuriin ja markkinaoloihin.Euro on järjestelmän katteensiirtojen toiseksi yleisin valuutta ja muissa järjestelmissä, joissa välitetään euromääräisiä suuria maksuja, maksujen määrät ja arvot tullevat pienenemään vaikka kokonaisvolyymit pysyisivät muuttumattomina. jotkin markkinaosapuolet odottavat CLS-järjestelmän antavan alkusysäyksen päivänsisäisten rahamarkkinoiden kehitykselle sekä valuuttakauppojen kaksitasoiselle hinnoittelulle, mutta näistä kysymyksistä on myös eriäviä mielipiteitä, joten tässä vaiheessa on vielä liian aikaista tehdä asiasta johtopäätöksiä.
  • Iivarinen, Timo (2002)
    Suomen Pankki. Rahoitusmarkkinaraportti Syksy
    CLS-pankki aloitti toimintansa menestyksellisesti syyskuussa 2002. Tällä hetkellä valuuttakauppoja selvitetään päivittäin yli 10.000 kappaletta, joiden bruttoarvo ylittää 100 miljardia euroa. Nordea aloitti marraskuussa CLS-pankin selvitysjäsenenä.
  • Herrala, Risto; Nieminen, Risto (1998)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 72 ; 9 ; September
  • Ikonen, Vappu (2021)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Suomen Pankki harjoitti valuutansäännöstelyä heinäkuusta 1918 lokakuun loppupuolelle 1920 asti. Kansainvälisessä Brysselin konferenssissa syksyllä 1920 pyrittiin hahmottelemaan suuntaviivoja uuden raha- ja talousjärjestelmän rakentamiseksi. Yksi suositus oli valuutansäännöstelystä luopuminen, minkä Suomi siis toteutti heti konferenssin jälkeen. Tavoitteena oli voimakkaasti devalvoituneen markan arvon vakauttaminen. Voimaan jäi kuitenkin määräys, jonka mukaan valuuttakauppa oli sallittu vain luvan saaneille pankeille ja pankkiiriliikkeille. Suomen Pankki tuki markkaa myös pienillä valuuttainterventioilla.
  • Pösö, Mika; Spolander, Mikko (1997)
    Suomen Pankin keskustelualoitteita 4/1997
    In this paper, we use a fairly simple monetary macro model to calculate the quarterly measures of exchange market pressure and the degree of the Bank of Finland's intervention during the time the markka was floated.Exchange market pressure measures the size of the exchange rate change that would have occurred if the central bank had unexpectedly refrained from intervening in the foreign exchange market.Intervention activity of the central bank is measured as the proportion of exchange market pressure relieved by foreign exchange interventions. According to the measures, exchange market pressure decreased during the course of the markka float.Looking at the float as a whole, we cannot say whether depreciation or appreciation pressure was clearly dominant.However, the quarterly exchange market pressure was more often negative than positive. The intervention indices indicate that the Bank of Finland limited the quarterby-quarter changes in the external value of markka almost totally allowing markka to drift slowly towards its underlying free-float equilibrium value.The estimates of intervention activity during periods of appreciation and depreciation pressure diverged most in 1994 and 1996.In 1994, depreciation pressure was dampened more carefully than appreciation pressure.In 1996, on the other hand, the Bank of Finland reacted much more cautiously to appreciation pressure.Overall, the Bank of Finland's reactions to appreciation pressure seem to have varied markedly, while its reactions to depreciation pressure seem to have been more consistent. Keywords: exchange market pressure, exchange market intervention, floating exchange rate regime
  • Korhonen, Tapio (2006)
    EURO & TALOUS 2
    Euro on vakiinnuttanut asemansa dollarin jälkeen toiseksi tärkeimpänä valuuttana maailman valuuttamarkkinoilla.Eurolla on keskeinen asema yhä lähinnä vain euroalueen lähiympäristössä.
  • Bask, Mikael (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2006
    Published in Frontiers in Finance and Economics (forthcoming)
    Since the magnitude of exchange rate overshooting may not be the same for different exchange rates of a currency, a monetary expansion or contraction in, for example, the EMU, will affect the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the yen, even though there are no changes in monetary fundamentals in the U.S. or Japan. This fact is demonstrated in a sticky-price monetary model due originally to Dornbusch (1976) that is enlarged with currency traders that use Chartism in the form of moving averages.It is also demonstrated that purchasing power parity (PPP) does not necessarily hold in long-run equilibrium.These results are interesting since, according to the empirical literature, there are often large movements in nominal exchange rates that are apparently unexplained by macroeconomic fundamentals, and there is also a weak support for PPP.Key words: Chartism, foreign exchange, macroeconomic fundamentals, moving averages, overshooting and PPP JEL classification numbers: F31, F41
  • Berganza, Juan Carlos; Broto, Carmen (2011)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2011
    Published in Journal of International Money and Finance, Volume 31, Issue 2, March 2012, Pages 428-444
    Emerging economies with inflation targets (IT) face a dilemma between fulflling the theoretical conditions of "strict IT", which implies a fully flexible exchange rate, or applying a "flexible IT", which entails a de facto managed floating exchange rate with forex interventions to moderate exchange rate volatility. Using a panel data model for 37 countries we find that, although IT lead to higher exchange rate instability than alternative regimes, forex interventions in some IT countries have been more effective in reducing volatility than in non-IT countries, which may justify the use of "flexible IT" by policymakers. Keywords: Inflation targeting; Exchange rate volatility; Foreign exchange interventions; Emerging economies. JEL codes: E31; E42; E52; E58; F31
  • Bask, Mikael; Fidrmuc, Jarko (2006)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2006
    Published in Open Economies Review, Volume 20, Issue 5, November 2009, Pages 589-605
    We present a model of exchange rates, which incorporates the monetary approach and technical trading, and we present the reduced form based on the minimal state variable solution, where both fundamentals and backward-looking term determine the spot exchange rates.Finally, we estimate the impact of the monetary fundamentals for a panel of Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Slovakia) in the second half of the 1990s as well as the complete model of exchange rate determination for daily data over the more recent free-floating period.Key words: foreign exchange market, fundamental analysis, panel cointegration, technical analysis JEL classification numbers: C23, F31, F36
  • Kuussaari, Harri (2010)
    Bank of Finland. Financial market report 3
    The average daily turnover in the global foreign exchange market in April 2010 was nearly USD 4.0 trillion. In Finland, the average daily FX turnover was ca USD 31 billion. Global daily turnover was 20% higher than in April 2007. In Finland, growth has been considerably more robust, with a nearly fourfold increase in average daily turnover on April 2007. Activity in the global OTC derivatives markets continue to increase, whereas in Finland turnover has declined since 2007.
  • Bask, Mikael (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2007
    Published in Journal of Economics and Business, Volume 61, Issue 2, March-April 2009: 97-111
    We embed different instrument rules into a New Keynesian model for a small open economy that is augmented with technical trading in currency trade to examine the prerequisites for monetary policy. Specifically, this paper focuses on conditions for a determinate, least-squares learnable rational expectations equilibrium (REE). Under an interest rate rule with only contemporaneous macroeconomic data, the intensity of technical trading or trend-seeking in currency trade does not affect these conditions, except in the case of an extensive use of trend-seeking. On the other hand, if the central bank uses only forward-looking information in its interest rate rule, a determinate and learnable REE is a less likely outcome when trend-seeking in currency trade becomes more popular. The interest rate rule followed by the central bank in the model incorporates interest rate smoothing. Keywords: determinacy, DSGE model, interest rate rule, least-squares learning, technical trading JEL classification numbers: C62, E52, F31, F41
  • Melolinna, Marko; Kariluoto, Jarmo (2000)
    Suomen Pankin tilasto-osaston työpapereita; Bank of Finland statistics department working papers 1/2000
  • Bask, Mikael (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2007
    A DSGE model with a Taylor rule is augmented with an evolutionary switching between technical and fundamental analyses in currency trade, where the fractions of these trading tools are determined within the model. Then, a shock hits the economy. As a result, chaotic dynamics and long swings may occur in the exchange rate, which are appealing features of the model given existing empirical evidence on chaos and long swings in exchange rate fluctuations. Keywords: chaotic dynamics, foreign exchange, fundamental analysis, monetary policy, technical analysis JEL classification numbers: C65, E32, E44, E52, F31
  • Jalasjoki, Pirkka (2016)
    Euro & talous. Blogi
    Valuuttakauppaa luonnehditaan usein maailman suurimmaksi markkinaksi. Suurimman markkinan tittelistä kilpailevat kuitenkin myös korkojohdannaissopimukset.
  • Spolander, Mikko (1999)
    Suomen Pankki. E 17
    This study contributes to the measurement of exchange market pressure and central bank intervention policy in a system of floating currency and partly sterilized foreign exchange interventions.A model-consistent approach is used.The measures of exchange market pressure and degree of intervention in the foreign exchange market are derived in the context of an empirically oriented small open economy monetary model with rational expectations.Monetary and foreign exchange policies are explicitly defined and foreign exchange interventions are allowed to be partly sterilized.Finally, the model is applied to Finnish data in order to analyse the pressure on the markka, which was floating during the period 1992-1996, and the Bank of Finland's reaction to that pressure.In contrast to most other empirical studies using various proxy variables, actual intervention data is used. According to the estimation results, the inclusion of the monetary policy reaction function and especially the sterilization of foreign exchange intervention makes the values of the measures of exchange market pressure and intervention policy more realistic and hence easier to interpret.This means that the fact that foreign exchange interventions are at least partly sterilized in the main industrial countries should be taken into account when exchange market pressure and central bank intervention policy are measured. This has not been done in other studies using a model-consistent approach.When the Bank of Finland's reaction to exchange market pressure is analysed, the results seem to suggest that the Bank let the markka float quite freely, reduced its intervention activity gradually as exchange market pressure diminished, and considered markka appreciation more desirable than depreciation during the markka float. Key words: exchange market pressure, foreign exchange intervention, intervention policy, Finland
  • Bask, Mikael (2007)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 21/2007
    We embed an expectations-based optimal policy rule into a DSGE model for a small open economy that is augmented with trend extrapolation or chartism, which is a form of technical trading, in currency trade to examine the prerequisites for monetary policy. We find that a unique REE that is least-squares learnable is often the outcome when there is a limited amount of trend extrapolation, but that a less flexible inflation rate targeting may cause a multiplicity of REE. We also compute impulse-response functions for key macroeconomic variables to study how the economy returns to steady state after being hit by a shock. Keywords: determinacy, DSGE model, least-squares learning, targeting rule, technical trading, monetary policy JEL classification numbers: C62, E52, F31, F41