Long-term growth forecast for the Finnish economy

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dc.contributor.author Kinnunen, Helvi
dc.contributor.author Mäki-Fränti, Petri
dc.contributor.author Newby, Elisa
dc.contributor.author Orjasniemi, Seppo
dc.contributor.author Railavo, Jukka
dc.date.accessioned 2014-09-23T07:29:02Z
dc.date.available 2014-09-23T07:29:02Z
dc.date.issued 2012
dc.identifier.uri https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/10959
dc.description ISSN-L 1797-3775 (print) ISSN 1797-3783 (online)
dc.description.abstract To make the correct economic policy choices one must have a view of the long-term growth prospects for the economy, as these policy choices will have implications for decades ahead. Of the factors that will influence economic growth in the decades ahead, the easiest to anticipate is population ageing, which will depress labour supply and hence reduce the economy's growth potential. In contrast, it is much harder to estimate future trends in productivity. The slower productivity growth since 2008 could be viewed as a temporary phenomenon that will be followed by a return to the earlier trend of rapid productivity growth, but it could also be a more permanent change. In any case, the share of output taken by services, with their slower productivity growth, will grow in the immediate decades ahead as the population ages, which foretells much more sluggish GDP over the next few decades.
dc.format.extent 69-78
dc.language.iso eng
dc.rights https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright
dc.subject ennusteet
dc.subject Suomi
dc.subject talouskasvu
dc.subject tuottavuus
dc.subject bkt
dc.subject tuotanto
dc.subject rakennemuutokset
dc.subject SP
dc.subject RP
dc.subject RP TU
dc.title Long-term growth forecast for the Finnish economy
dc.type Artikkeli
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408073882
dc.series.name Bank of Finland bulletin. Economic outlook
dc.series.number 3

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