Analysis of Russia's fiscal sustainability under the new fiscal rules

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dc.contributor Bank of Finland
dc.contributor Suomen Pankki
dc.contributor.author Vlasov, Sergey
dc.date.accessioned 2014-11-18T06:49:26Z
dc.date.available 2014-10-17T06:49:26Z
dc.date.issued 2013
dc.identifier.issn 1456-811X
dc.identifier.uri https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/12601
dc.description.abstract This study examines Russia's short- and long run fiscal sustainability. The study reveals the possible risks, if fiscal sustainability deteriorates on the general government budget level. By employing a special fiscal stress index, Russia's public finances are evaluated as sustainable in the short run. In the long run, the study analyzes advantages and limitations of the new fiscal rules, compares the new rules with the previous fiscal rules suspended during the financial crisis and discusses the possibilities for further development of the fiscal rules in Russia. The official long run socio-economic development forecast is employed for the estimates. The analysis suggests that comparing to 2012 government revenue will decrease by 7.5 p.p. of GDP by 2050, explained by the drop in oil-and-gas revenue by 8.7 p.p. of GDP. Government expenditure will decrease by 6.0 p.p. of GDP. The value of government net worth will become negative by 2050 but on the infinite projection horizon should stabilize on the safe level close to -15% of GDP. Keywords: fiscal sustainability, fiscal stress index, fiscal rules, general government budget, budget forecast
dc.format.extent 22 s.
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries Bank of Finland. Institute for Economies in Transition. BOFIT Online
dc.subject Venäjä
dc.subject julkinen talous
dc.subject finanssipolitiikka
dc.subject säännöt
dc.subject talousarviot
dc.subject julkiset menot
dc.subject ennusteet
dc.subject SP
dc.subject RP
dc.subject RP ST
dc.subject Bofit-kokoelma
dc.subject kestävyys
dc.title Analysis of Russia's fiscal sustainability under the new fiscal rules
dc.type Sarjajulkaisu
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:bof-201408083
dc.series.name BOFIT Online
dc.series.year 2013
dc.series.number 9/2013
dc.series.sortingnumber 0009
dc.date.publication 27.6.2013
dc.contributor.orgunit Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
dc.contributor.orgunit Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT)

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