BOFIT Forecast for China 2016–2018 / 1

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Title: BOFIT Forecast for China 2016–2018 / 1
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Forecast for China
Series year: 2016
Series number: 1/2016
Year of publication: 2016
Publication date: 21.3.2016
Pages: 6
Subject (yso): taloudelliset ennusteet; taloudellinen kehitys; talouskasvu
Keywords: Bofit-kokoelma; Kiina; China; ennusteet; taloudelliset katsaukset; talouskasvu
Other keywords: China; forecast; economic development
Abstract: Economic growth in China continued to slow in 2015, with annual GDP growth coming in at slightly below 7 %. Even with the negative market reactions to lower growth, there is little change in the long-term outlook. The modest slowing trend in growth will continue and China will move ahead with structural adjustments to its economy. As in our earlier forecasts, we expect the Chinese economy to grow at around 6 % p.a. in 2016 and 2017. In 2018, growth will slow to around 5 %. As China’s economy opens up to the world, it faces new risks that require more transparent policy responses. China’s high (and rising) debt-to-GDP ratio makes it increasingly susceptible to severe economic disturbances.
Note: Published also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Kiina-ennuste

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