Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach

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Title: Are the Central and Eastern European transition countries still vulnerable to a financial crisis? Results from the signals approach
Author: Brüggemann, Axel ; Linne, Thomas
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers
Series number: 5/2002
Year of publication: 2002
Publication date: 5.5.2002
Pages: 33
Keywords: Bofit-kokoelma; Itä-Eurooppa; riskit; kriisit
Abstract: The aim of paper is to analyse the vulnerability of the Central and Eastern European accession countries to the EU as well as that of Turkey and Russia to a financial crisis. Our methodology is an extension of the signals approach. We develop a composite indicator to measure the evolutin of of the risk potential in each country. Our findings show that crises in Central and Eastern Europe are caused by much the usual suspects s in others emerging markets. In particular an overvalued exchange rate. Weak exports and dwindling currency reserves have good precictive power for assessing crisis vulnerabilities. Keywords: F31, F47, financial crises, vulnerability indicator, Central and Eastern Europe
Rights: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright


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