BOFIT Forecast for China 2018–2020 / 1

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Title: BOFIT Forecast for China 2018–2020 / 1
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Forecast for China
Series year: 2018
Series number: 1/2018
Year of publication: 2018
Publication date: 27.3.2018
Pages: 6
Subject (yso): taloudelliset ennusteet; taloudellinen kehitys
Keywords: Bofit-kokoelma; Kiina; China; ennusteet; taloudelliset katsaukset; talouskasvu
Other keywords: China; forecast; economic development
Abstract: The pace of China’s economic growth accelerated slightly last year, with official figures showing GDP growth of 6.9 % p.a. Even if the economic cycle appears on the upswing, growth is undergirded by the government’s heavy-handed stimulus policies. Since the Communist Party’s National Congress last autumn, the policy stance has tightened and the role of the party has been amplified. As a result, we have slightly boosted our GDP forecast for this year, putting it on par with China’s official GDP growth target of “about 6.5 %.” Going forward, high growth fuelled by debt will become unsustainable. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is already high and will continue to rise in the forecast period. Thus, we expect growth to slow to a more sustainable level of around 5 % by 2020. Several sources of uncertainty from both domestic and international markets cloud China’s economic outlook. Downside risks have increased from our previous forecast.
Note: Published also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Kiina-ennuste

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