Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China

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dc.contributor Bank of Finland Amstad, Marlene Ye, Huan Ma, Guonan 2018-05-08T09:29:14Z 2018-05-08T09:29:14Z 2018
dc.identifier.isbn 978-952-323-226-6
dc.identifier.issn 1456-5889
dc.description.abstract Inflation in emerging markets is often driven by large, persistent changes in food and energy prices. Core inflation measures that neglect or under-weight volatile CPI subcomponents such as food and energy risk excluding information helpful in assessing current and future inflation trends. This paper develops an underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China, extracting the persistent part of the common component in a broad dataset of price and non-price variables. Our proposed UIG for China avoids the excess volatility reduction that plagues traditional Chinese core inflation measures. When forecasting headline CPI, the proposed UIG outperforms traditional core inflation measures over a variety of samples.
dc.format.extent 47
dc.language.iso ENG
dc.relation.ispartofseries BOFIT Discussion Papers
dc.subject Bofit-kokoelma
dc.subject SP
dc.subject RP ST
dc.subject.other inflation
dc.subject.other China
dc.subject.other emerging markets
dc.subject.other forecasting
dc.subject.other monetary policy
dc.subject.other dynamic factor models
dc.title Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China
dc.type Paper
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:bof-201805081497
dc.subject.jel C13
dc.subject.jel C33
dc.subject.jel E31
dc.subject.jel E37
dc.subject.jel G15
dc.subject.jel C43 BOFIT Discussion Papers
dc.series.year 2018
dc.series.number 11/2018
dc.series.sortingnumber 0011 27.4.2018
dc.contributor.orgunit Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
dc.type.okm D4

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