Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China

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dc.contributor Suomen Pankki
dc.contributor Bank of Finland Wagner, Helmut 2018-06-20T06:08:44Z 2018-06-20T06:08:44Z 2018
dc.identifier.issn 2342-205X
dc.description.abstract China is currently experiencing a structural change toward tertiarization and an implied growth slowdown associated with it. The paper investigates whether this growth slowdown is merely cyclical or a negative trend, and further what China is doing or should do to avoid falling into a “middle-income trap,” a problem many emerging economies have experienced in recent decades. The pitfalls of the current “soft” rebalancing policy in China are analyzed in the context of this development.
dc.description.tableofcontents Abstract....3 1. Introduction....3 2. China’s recent growth slowdown and the fear of an MIT....3 2.1. Growth slowdown: The sum of multiple determinants and structural change....4 2.2. MIT concept....6 3. MIT as a result of ineffective rebalancing in China....8 3.1. The first wave of imbalances....8 3.2. The second wave of imbalances....9 3.3. Need for simultaneously reducing the old and new imbalances....10 3.4. MIT-concept vs. low-convergence concept....13 4. Growth slowdown (2010–2017) cyclical or trend? – revisited....15 5. How to avoid an MIT / slow convergence in China?....16 6. Concluding remarks and further research....18 7. References....20
dc.format.extent 25
dc.language.iso ENG
dc.subject Bofit-kokoelma
dc.subject SP
dc.subject RP ST
dc.subject Kiina
dc.subject.other structural change
dc.subject.other rebalancing
dc.subject.other middle-income trap
dc.subject.other development
dc.subject.other China
dc.title Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China
dc.type Paper
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:bof-201806201645 BOFIT Policy Brief
dc.series.year 2018
dc.series.number 6/2018 20.6.2018
dc.subject.yso talouskasvu
dc.subject.yso rakennemuutos
dc.contributor.orgunit Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT)
dc.contributor.orgunit Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
dc.type.okm D4

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