Bank of Finland Bulletin (1921- )

 

Bank of Finland Bulletin aims to disseminate information on current issues relating to the Finnish economy. The issues focus on the current economic situation, the financial markets and the stability of the Finnish financial market. The Bank of Finland's macroeconomic forecast for Finland is published twice a year. N.B. 1/2020 was not produced.

Recent Submissions

  • Bank of Finland (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2022
    Ukraine war blurring economic outlook – ECB monetary policy normalisation continues ... 3 Russia’s war in Ukraine is stifling Finland’s economic recovery ... 7 Russia’s war in Ukraine could lead to a recession in Finland ... 32 Finnish household debt accumulation follows economic cycle ... 42 Ukraine war is weakening the business environment in Finland ... 51 Cost competitiveness is key in replacing lost trade with Russia ... 60 Forecast tables for 2022–2024 (June 2022) ... 72
  • Bank of Finland (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2022
    Russia’s war in Ukraine is weakening the outlook for the Finnish economy and pushing up inflation. Foreign trade with Russia is collapsing as a result of the war, and higher uncertainty and inflation are undermining the prospects for consumption and investment. Finland’s economy was growing well before the war started, and this will serve as a good foundation for the year’s growth overall. The Finnish economy is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2022, but growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023 due to the impacts of the war. Growth will then pick up to 1.5% in 2024, as the difficulties in the global economy subside and inflation moderates.
  • Obstbaum, Meri; Pönkä, Harri; Nippala, Veera (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2022
    Finland’s cost competitiveness has strengthened in recent years, but it has yet to fully recover to the level attained before the 2008 financial crisis. Based on current projections, cost competitiveness will improve slightly in 2022 and remain almost unchanged in the immediate years ahead. Finland’s more favourable structure of exports and imports relative to its peers will help in maintaining cost competitiveness in the face of rising costs caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Maintaining cost competitiveness is highly important now and in the coming years as Finnish companies wind down their trade with Russia and look for new markets for their products and services. In the short term, cost competitiveness will be supported by Finland’s terms of trade.
  • Mäki-Fränti, Petri; Vanhala, Juuso (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2022
    The war in Ukraine is affecting industrial sectors and individual companies across Finland, though in an uneven manner. The results of a business survey show that the majority of companies believe they can replace relatively quickly the lost volume of exports to Russia with new markets. Some companies, however, stated that they will be unable to replace any of the lost volume of exports. Manufacturing industries, in particular, are suffering from supply chain problems and rising costs. Companies estimate that they will be able to compensate for the impact of higher costs on profitability by, for example, raising their sales prices. As a consequence of the war, companies’ investments, too, will remain slightly below the level planned.
  • Silvo, Aino; Nyholm, Juho (2022)
    Bank of Finland. Bulletin 2/2022
    Over recent decades, Finnish households have constantly accumulated debt in relation to their income. The household savings rate has also been mainly negative. However, during recessions households typically save more and accumulate less debt than in economic upswings. Despite the low savings rate and continuous growth in debt, the value of the household sector’s financial wealth has increased faster than the value of its debts. This is attributable to a considerable appreciation in the value of financial assets. As a consequence, the household sector’s financial position has strengthened in spite of the accumulation of debt, resulting in an overall improvement in households’ financial room for manoeuvre. However, asset prices can decrease substantially in a downturn, which would weaken the financial position of households and limit their borrowing capacity.