BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2019–2021 / 1

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Nimeke: BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2019–2021 / 1
Julkaisija: Bank of Finland
Osasto / Yksikkö: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Sarjan nimi: BOFIT Forecast for Russia
Sarjan vuosi: 2019
Sarjan numero: 1/2019
Julkaisuvuosi: 2019
Ilmestymispäivämäärä: 15.3.2019
Sivut: 6
Asiasanat (yso): talouskasvu; taloudelliset ennusteet; taloudellinen kehitys
Hakusanat: Bofit-kokoelma; Venäjä; Russia; taloudelliset katsaukset
Muut hakusanat: Russia; forecast; economic development
Tiivistelmä: Russian economic growth gathered steam in 2018. Rising oil prices and ruble depreciation combined to boost budget revenues and net export earnings. Russia’s hosting of the 2018 FIFA World Cup international football tournament boosted demand in the tourism and restaurant industries. Large investment projects in the natural gas industry also advanced faster than expected. The contraction of the corporate credit stock ended, while growth of the household credit stock accelerated appreciably – a shift that was reflected in improved profitability of the banking sector. Rosstat’s first estimate of 2.3 % GDP growth last year exceeded the high end of most forecasts. Lower economic growth should return this year, however. The hike in value-added taxes and a mild pick-up in the inflation rate are impeding growth in household consumption. Moreover, there are no signs of an across-the-board recovery in fixed investment, meaning net exports will continue to be an important growth driver in 2019. The launch of massive state investment projects in 2020 and 2021 should slightly boost the pace of economic growth, particularly in 2020. BOFIT expects Russian economic growth to settle in at around 1.5 % annually in coming years.
Huomautus: Published also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Venäjä-ennuste.


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