BOFIT Forecast for China 2019–2021 / 1

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Title: BOFIT Forecast for China 2019–2021 / 1
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Forecast for China
Series year: 2019
Series number: 1/2019
Year of publication: 2019
Publication date: 15.3.2019
Pages: 6
Subject (yso): taloudelliset ennusteet; taloudellinen kehitys
Keywords: Bofit-kokoelma; Kiina; China; ennusteet; taloudelliset katsaukset; talouskasvu
Other keywords: China; forecast; economic development
Abstract: China’s economic growth, which witnessed a slowdown last year, continued to deteriorate in the early months of this year. Although the government has responded with measures to support growth, an already lax fiscal stance and extremely high debt-to-GDP ratio highlight the limits to debt-driven stimulus policies. Adding to the mix, the trade war between China and the United States has exacerbated economic uncertainty. Business-cycle weakness is accompanied by structural factors that depress the growth such as demographic shifts and the government’s failure to move ahead with economic reforms. While China’s economic growth is expected to continue to slow during 2019–2021, it will still outpace growth of the global economy. The risk of a sudden slump of growth has increased significantly. Unreliable official GDP data complicate assessment of China’s true economic conditions.
Note: Published also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Kiina-ennuste
Rights: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright


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