Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey

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dc.contributor Bank of Finland Stanisławska, Ewa Paloviita, Maritta Łyziak, Tomasz 2019-07-05T06:00:09Z 2019-07-05T06:00:09Z 2019
dc.identifier.isbn 978-952-323-277-8
dc.identifier.issn 1456-6184
dc.description.abstract Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not match each other. Then we consider the impact of inconsistent survey responses on balance statistics and mean values of quantitative inflation expectations. We also analyze expectations’ formation estimating the sticky-information models. The results, based on Finnish and Polish data, suggest that even if the fraction of inconsistent survey responses is non-negligible, it matters neither for the aggregated figures of inflation views, nor for understanding of the formation of inflation expectations by consumers. We conclude that micro-level inconsistencies do not reduce the reliability of the current EC Consumer Survey dataset. Our results also indicate that inconsistent responses are not important drivers of the inflation overestimation bias displayed in the data.
dc.format.extent 40
dc.language.iso ENG
dc.subject inflaatio-odotukset
dc.subject Puola
dc.subject Suomi
dc.subject.other inflation expectations
dc.subject.other European Union
dc.subject.other consumer survey
dc.title Assessing reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European Commission consumer survey
dc.type Paper
dc.identifier.urn URN:NBN:fi:bof-201907041285
dc.subject.jel C11
dc.subject.jel C53
dc.subject.jel Q43
dc.subject.jel Q47 Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
dc.series.year 2019
dc.series.number 10/2019
dc.series.sortingnumber 0010 5.7.2019
dc.subject.yso inflaatio
dc.subject.yso odotukset
dc.subject.yso EU-maat
dc.subject.yso kuluttajat
dc.subject.yso kuluttajatutkimus
dc.subject.yso hinnat
bof-internal.includedInCRIS 1
dc.type.okm D4

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