Win-Win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy

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Titel: Win-Win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy
Författare: Herrala, Risto ; Orlandi, Fabrice
Institution: Bank of Finland
Avdelning / Enhet: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Serie: BOFIT Discussion Papers
Serienumber: 4/2020
Utgivningsår: 2020
Utgivningsdatum: 12.2.2020
Publicerad i: Published in Asia and the Global Economy, Volume 1, Issue 1, January 2021 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aglobe.2021.100006
Sidor: 27
Subject (yso): talouskasvu; vaikutukset; kansainvälinen talous; hinnat
Nyckelord: Bofit-kokoelma; Kiina; Kiinan talous
JEL: C2; F15; F440
Andra nyckelord: Chinese economy; global spillover; real time data; China
Abstrakt: We study the global impact of the Chinese economy based on a novel indirect approach where the spillover effect is quantified from a forecast error model under relatively favorable identifying conditions. Findings from the real-time World Economic Outlook data over the period 2004 - 2015 indicate that an increase in economic growth in China had a negative impact on most other economies one to two years ahead. The estimations furthermore uncover evidence at the global level that spillover propagated by influencing prices, including global commodity prices, which tend to increase in reaction to accelerating economic growth in China.
Innehållsförteckning: Abstract .. 4 I Introduction .. 5 II The empirical approach .. 7 A The estimable equation .. 7 B Finite sample properties .. 10 III Empirical analysis .. 12 A The data .. 12 B Estimation results .. 14 C Robustness tests .. 16 D The spillover channels .. 19 IV Discussion and concluding remarks .. 22 References .. 23
Licens: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright


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