BOFIT Forecast for China 2020–2022 / 1

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Titel: BOFIT Forecast for China 2020–2022 / 1
Institution: Bank of Finland
Avdelning / Enhet: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Serie: BOFIT Forecast for China
Serienumber: 1/2020
Utgivningsår: 2020
Utgivningsdatum: 20.3.2020
Sidor: 5
Subject (yso): taloudelliset ennusteet; taloudellinen kehitys
Nyckelord: Bofit-kokoelma; Kiina; China; ennusteet; taloudelliset katsaukset; talouskasvu
Andra nyckelord: China; forecast; economic development
Abstrakt: China’s economic growth was already slowing before the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in the latter half of January. The epidemic and strict measures imposed by the government to rein in the accelerating infection rate brought China’s economy to a standstill. While we are now witnessing a recovery of the economy that is supported by stimulus measures, it is clear that some lost production will never be made up. Accordingly, our forecasts have been revised downwards. We now estimate that China’s real GDP will turn negative this year, but as the situation normalizes, growth is likely to be impressive next year before falling back to the earlier trend. Downside risks have dramatically increased due to the unpredictable fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Anmärking: Published also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Kiina-ennuste

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